Turkish President presses for a referendum on a new constitution, which would better express the values of the ruling party • Researcher explains: "Erdogan wants to take over the agenda"
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan // Photo: Reuters
The year 2020 has been a time of great upheaval in Turkey, from the corona virus, through the question of whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will send the country to a snap election - to the resignation of Finance Minister and son-in-law, Brak Albeirak.
Still, it is not inconceivable that 2021 will become no less significant - with a new constitution.
At a meeting of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) faction in parliament, the president sounded much clearer than previous times about the issue of the new law - saying that "the conditions for drafting a new constitution have matured."
He said, "It is time for the state to stop pursuing an amendment to the existing constitution - and create a new one."
To this day, Erdogan has worked to amend the Fourth Constitution, enacted in 1982.
This constitution - the fourth in the history of the republic - was approved in a referendum, after the 1961 constitution was repealed with the military coup in 1980.
This constitution was approved by a huge majority of 92% of the vote, reduced individual rights, abolished the Senate - and transferred many powers to the defense establishment, and especially to the National Security Council and the military.
The fact that those who wrote this constitution are military men has made all its clauses controversial - all the more so on the part of Erdogan and his men.
"To amend certain sections of the existing constitution is not enough," Erdogan continued, "the new constitution should receive support from everyone, or at least from the vast majority."
Since 1982, no less than 19 constitutional amendments have been approved in Turkey.
The president noted that the coalition partner, the National Movement Party (MHP), supports the new constitution.
This is not surprising, since according to updated polls - this party is quite far from passing the blocking percentage in the general elections that are expected to take place in 2023.
The process of establishing a new constitution in Turkey is very long: first and foremost, it is necessary to go to a referendum.
If and when the people approve the establishment of the new constitution, then parliament will be required to form a special committee, composed of members of parliament from all parties in proportion, and it will submit to the parliament plenum - the draft new constitution for approval.
"All parties must join the process of preparing the new," concluded the Turkish president, who also declared: "We want our new constitution to set an example to the world. We will join in creating the most comprehensive and orderly draft constitution. Our new constitution will reflect our national aspirations. To the Republic. "
"If and when you want to propose an amendment to the existing constitution, you need at least 200 MPs to approve the proposed amendment, while in order for the amendment to be approved in practice, you need at least 400 MPs to vote in favor," Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Inroog told Israel Today K., Researcher of Modern Turkey at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and at the Moshe Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University.
"Erdogan's current problem is that he currently does not have 400 MPs in the coalition, but only 338 who can vote for him."
Dr Cohen Inrojek adds that “if Erdogan wants to pass the constitutional approval to a referendum, he needs the approval of at least 360 MPs.
This is a very sophisticated move by Erdogan who wants to 'erode' the unity of the opposition, which is not united in any case.
The element that unites the opposition, which is made up of nationalists, Kurds and secularists, is 'Erdogan hatred'.
"In fact, what Erdogan is doing is instead of being dragged into the national agenda after the opposition protests, such as the demonstrations at the University of Boazici, he is creating a new, alternative agenda of his own."
The senior investigator concludes that "Erdogan drags the opponent to his agenda. Furthermore, given that this is a new constitution and not amending certain sections of the existing constitution - Erdogan may go to a referendum on the issue even without any parliamentary approval. Beyond that, it is not impossible that Erdogan "He will succeed in passing the new constitution in a referendum - he will take advantage of the positive momentum for him in the run-up to the general elections that are expected to take place in June 2023."