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Interview with Lauterbach: Warning of new super virus - "The pandemic will by no means be over by the end of 2021"

2021-02-10T05:04:24.806Z


Before the upcoming Corona summit, SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach speaks in an interview with Merkur.de about easing, mutations and the prospects for the coming months.


Before the upcoming Corona summit, SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach speaks in an interview with Merkur.de about easing, mutations and the prospects for the coming months.

Berlin - Again it is not good news that Prof. Dr.

Karl Lauterbach, SPD politician and health expert, announced on Monday morning (8.2.) Via his Twitter channel: The Astrazeneca vaccine clearly missed its effect on the South African corona mutation B.1.351.

Later in the day there was good news from Biontech / Pfizer.

And now?

Another summit with Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled for Wednesday.

He himself will be there to advise.

Will the hard Corona * lockdown be extended again, or should hairdressers, schools or even retailers hope?

Lauterbach takes a position in

an interview with

Merkur.de

.

His warnings are aimed primarily at dangerous mutations that are likely to continue to spread in Germany.

But he also sees cause for hope.

Mr. Lauterbach, how do you feel when you are publicly announced as a kind of prophet in the corona pandemic * - as happened recently with Markus Lanz?

I don't care about that, I wish I wasn't right about certain things.

For example, I pointed out early in August that our strategy would be to run out of vaccine in January.

With regard to the significance of the mutations that lie ahead, I hope that the developments I have predicted will not materialize.

Who didn't listen to you?

That stays between us.

I don't want to dwell on assigning blame, I want to stay positive and contribute to ending the pandemic.

For months you have been quoting several times a week publicly from numerous studies that support your theses.

How did you acquire that?

I have been reading epidemiological studies every day for decades in order to be up to date in science as a politician.

As a health economist and clinical epidemiologist, it is of course job-related that I specialize in reading and interpreting such surveys quickly.

I am also closely networked with scientists from the USA, Germany and England.

We constantly make each other aware of relevant studies and discuss the results with one another.

Lauterbach before Merkel summit: easing probably not possible - "otherwise mutations build up relentlessly to a third wave"

On Wednesday new decisions will be made with Angela Merkel.

What is your exact role at such a summit? 

I don't want to say that, but I would like to say this much: I am sufficiently involved.

The Chancellor speaks of the "light at the end of the tunnel", the numbers are falling.

Society longs for relaxation.

Opening hairdressers should be possible, what else?

If nothing unforeseen happens, we will face rising numbers again with easing from the beginning of March.

The British variant in particular is already so widespread that, at best, stagnation occurs at the beginning of March at the latest before the number of cases increases again.

The leeway for relaxation is actually zero - even for hairdressers.

The only thing I could imagine would be to open elementary schools and daycare centers with really good preparation - because of the dire consequential damage for children.

Primary school teachers and educators should therefore be vaccinated as a matter of priority, the students would have to wear medical masks and take a rapid antigen test * at least once a week.

For this purpose, alternating lessons can then take place.

But that is the absolute maximum of momentary easing.

Otherwise, the mutations build up systematically and relentlessly to form a third wave.

The higher grades must remain exclusively in homeschooling, otherwise we will quickly lose control of the pandemic.

The current lockdown is successful, but not successful enough.

How much longer does the restaurant industry have to be patient?

Are concepts without alcohol and only for breakfast too short?

At this point in time, the third wave is building up and we are vaccinating too slowly: we cannot hope for the next few weeks.

Even such a concept wouldn't make a difference, after all it's about sitting in a room and eating.

South Africa B.1.351, Great Britain B.1.1.7, Brazil 1.1.248: Which of the new variants is particularly aggressive or stressful for us?

The escape mutation B.1.351 is much more dangerous.

Current vaccines as well as some important drugs are less effective against this variant.

Even antibodies formed by a pre-infection do not offer sufficient protection.

B.1.1.7 is currently the most widespread and significantly more contagious, but fortunately the first-generation vaccines work almost without restriction as with the original variant.

Lauterbach warns of combination mutation in Germany: "England hotbed for escape variants"

And that means for Germany?

The subject will primarily concern us in the future.

By the beginning of March, the proportion of the British mutation will have increased to around thirty percent of our cases.

The problem is: The British version partly also carries the Escape variant from South Africa, and that is the most dangerous - a combination mutation, so to speak.

It is as contagious as the British and as immune to defenses as the South African mutant.

It has a kind of protective shield against the body's immune cells, which the other variants do not have as strong.

Think of it this way: Escape mutations are like a kind of new virus for the body.

Therefore, we have to carry out the controls of people arriving from Great Britain, Austria and South Africa as strictly as possible.

We are dealing with another problem: England is becoming a breeding ground for escape mutations due to the rapid vaccinations and high numbers of infections.

A multitude of mutations arise, these will also come to us, we already have initial knowledge of new variants of this type from laboratories.

We will therefore continue to be dependent on new vaccines in the future.

The 50s incidence is apparently no longer tenable as a brand, although numerous cities declare that tracking is quite possible.

How far down do we have to go for “real” relaxation?

Up to 25 or, as virologist Melanie Brinkmann demands, only from an incidence of 10?

The incidence is still very indicative, but other things also matter.

Virus variants make a big difference.

I have long advocated a target incidence of 25 and below because you have a buffer or a safety margin to control what is happening.

An R value of 0.7 would also be ideal.

Then the mutations would not spread exponentially. 

With the mutations spreading, we now need eighty percent herd immunity, they said recently.

According to the RKI, the virus is now becoming more and more dangerous.

Various vaccines only protect fifty or ten percent against mutations.

And the vaccines are potentially harmful to our youngest children under 16 years of age.

If you listen to the experts often, a third wave can hardly be avoided ...

I also believe that a third wave that is slowly building up in March can hardly be prevented, but it is up to us and how we deal with it how strong it will be.

The summit with the Chancellor and the efforts of all of us will be of crucial importance here too.

We saw in London, for example, that B.1.1.7 can be controlled with a targeted lockdown. 

By the end of the summer everyone should have been offered a vaccination.

What is your forecast for the rest of 2021?

I almost don't want to venture a prognosis.

It depends on how quickly we can vaccinate.

Europe is at a disadvantage, but I rely heavily on additional vaccines from Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson, because they also work reasonably well against the British variant B.1.1.7.

Summer hopes do not have to be lost yet.

It depends on the next few weeks.

We still have to postpone easing.

Corona outlook: Lauterbach still hopes for summer - but probably no longer normal in 2021

And the outlook for the end of the year?

If we succeed with the vaccinations, we could avoid further lockdowns.

But the pandemic is by no means over in 2021.

We will also have to struggle in 2022.

Then you can really hope for a kind of normality at the very earliest.

But that too is pure speculation.

If we inadequately vaccinate in other countries, if new escape mutations are added and vaccines lose their effectiveness, it can continue.

Unfortunately, complete normality at the end of 2021 is probably still ruled out.

How do you feel about privileges for vaccinated people?

From autumn 2021, that would not be illogical.

In which areas do you see this as useful?

Privileges don't make sense.

We don't know how vaccines against mutations work.

What is also worrying about the B.1.351 variant is that the viral load in those who are already infected and vaccinated is almost as high as in those who are newly infected.

It's like a new virus.

Should we hope for a drug?

Monoclonal antibodies certainly give hope, but even they have not been able to help against the escape variant, at least so far.

After all: on the basis of very preliminary studies, drugs reduce the risk of death from the old variant by up to seventy percent if they are used correctly.

Where can you really spread hope?

There is good news too.

The Novavax vaccine and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, for example, work reasonably well even against the South African variant.

At least as far as the difficult courses are concerned.

All vaccine manufacturers are developing their vaccines further, and production capacities are also increasing.

And Israel shows: The Biontech vaccine helps against B.1.1.7 as well as against the conventional type.

Lauterbach attacks Corona easing in Austria - and praises Söder

So the production capacities are increasing sufficiently?

If you go by your assumptions, we may need to be vaccinated a third and fourth time.

Not enough.

It's still way too slow.

Hopefully the EU is not about to make the same mistake again.

We would have to invest massively in the vaccine production facilities, otherwise everything will take time again when the vaccine against the much more dangerous variants is produced.

And the pressure on us would increase because we would then distribute the third vaccination while no vaccine had been injected in other countries - that would probably not be justifiable.

A look explicitly at Bavaria: Would you have ever thought that you would have so many clashes of opinion with Markus Söder?

No, of course I wouldn't have thought that, but we often rate things very similarly.

I'm happy about everyone who goes with me.

It's not just Söder, I almost always have the same opinion with SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig and I also exchange ideas very intensively with other Prime Ministers and the Federal Chancellery.

Austria has been loosening up since Monday.

The CSU describes this as "irresponsible".

Astrazeneca is supposed to offer only ten percent protection against the South Africa mutation B.1.351, which is widespread in Tyrol.

Do you also fear effects on Bavaria and Germany?

Do you have to think about border closings?

I can only agree.

What Austria is doing here is also very dangerous for Germany.

Border controls are imperative, and closings are the way to go when necessary.

We have to keep the South African variant away with all our might, because the current vaccinations are of little help.

I am most concerned that we will find ourselves in a situation that is difficult to control. 

The general election is coming up, the SPD polls are lousy.

But you never know.

Could you imagine the job as Spahn's successor in the Ministry of Health?

The polls so far are actually very modest.

I haven't speculated in the last few years, and I'm not doing that now.

I already trust myself to do the job, that shouldn't be a secret.

But I would not assume that there will be massive excessive demands in office.

Christian Drosten and Hendrik Streeck are next to you protagonists on the side of the experts during the corona epidemic.

You recently addressed Mr. Streeck very clearly at Maischberger, saw things differently.

How is your relationship?

Collegial and unproblematic.

But it's no secret that I work much more intensively and better with Christian Drosten.

Everything is going very trustingly, for which I am grateful.

I am always amazed at how extremely well he knows his stuff.

Thank you very much for the interview, Mr. Lauterbach.

(Maximilian Kettenbach)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-02-10

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