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Lukashenko with delegates of the "All-Belarusian People's Assembly"
Photo: MAXIM GUCHEK / POOL / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock
In the world of Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has just survived a "blitzkrieg" led by foreign powers.
But it was unsuccessful: "We kept our country," said the dictator.
It should sound like a big win.
Lukashenko held court in Minsk on Thursday.
The ruler had 2700 loyal delegates, employees and delegates from universities, state-owned companies, authorities, ministries and even churches gathered in the capital up to and including Friday.
The "All-Belarusian People's Assembly" is the name of this body that Lukashenko set up around 25 years ago and meets every five years.
It is completely unclear according to which criteria the participants are selected.
The assembly commemorates the congresses of the Communist Party during the Soviet era - decisions are taken unanimously by show of hands, with no dissenting votes.
And Lukashenko watches over everything, who in his long speech also lectured on Belarus as allegedly the only sovereign state in Europe.
Which is not true, but only one example of what this people's assembly is: a parallel world in which Lukashenko paints the world as he likes it.
This includes the claim that the West is behind the protests.
Lukashenko did not talk about the fact that it is the Belarusians themselves who have been protesting against him for months - on some days in late summer there were over 200,000 men and women in Minsk.
Don't end up like Gaddafi
Six months after the demonstrations against the massive election fraud began, he feels like a winner.
Lukashenko had the protests put down through violence and repression, and his state apparatus has shown itself to be largely loyal.
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Alexander Lukashenko
Photo: Sergei Sheleg / AP
Only small groups of protesters dare to take to the streets, waving the opposition white-red-white flags.
This Thursday, too, always with the risk of being arrested and locked away immediately, like thousands before.
But they don't count in the world of Lukashenko.
For him there are only the categories to win or to be defeated.
And he made it clear that the latter is not an option for him.
He even recalled the fate of dictators like Saddam Hussein and Muammar al-Gaddafi.
Lukashenko claims that he was "crucified and hung on a stake" because he wanted to make his Libya and all of North Africa happy.
Rulers for life - model Kazakhstan?
The Belarusian ruler spoke for three hours and forty minutes.
Much of what he said was known.
Only after more than three hours did he announce the news:
A constitutional reform is to be worked out by the end of the year.
The "People's Assembly" should set up a commission for this purpose.
The Belarusians will vote on the changes in a referendum at the beginning of 2022.
With this, Lukashenko concretized what he had repeatedly promised in the past few months.
However, he left his own future open.
At some point there would be a Belarus without him, he said, and then added: "You understand, not today, not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow."
It is conceivable that a new office will be created for Lukashenko as part of the constitutional reform - as in Central Asian Kazakhstan.
There the long-term ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as president about two years ago, but as head of the Security Council and "leader of the nation" he still holds power in his hands, even if a different head of state is now.
The Minsk political scientist Valery Karbalevich believes this model is also possible for Lukashenko, who could become chairman of the “All-Belarusian People's Assembly” and thus remain in power.
This is supported by the fact that, according to Lukashenko's wishes, further changes are planned:
The "general assembly" is to be anchored in the future constitution.
So far, the body has only made recommendations for the head of state, which he can implement at his discretion.
The president, on the other hand, is to be deprived of powers that are transferred to government and parliament.
“That would drastically reduce the office of President.
We can assume that even in this case Lukashenko will not run in the next presidential election, ”said political expert Karbalevich to SPIEGEL.
It goes with all of this that Lukashenko stated very emotionally that he had given his country his best years: "I have nothing but Belarus," he said, as if the people owed him a rule for life.
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Protest in Minsk on January 26th
Photo: STRINGER / AFP
Putin and Lukashenko are in a similar position
It was not his only message: addressed to Moscow, Lukashenko remarked: "Today Russia will also be shaken".
He was referring to the protests after the oppositionist Alexei Navalny returned to his home country more than three weeks ago.
The way Lukashenko said it sounded triumphant.
In fact, he had warned Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, who urged him to reform, time and time again: "If the protests in Belarus succeed, Russia will be next." Even if the demonstrations in the two countries differ - in Belarus the extent was much larger - now use it to Lukashenko.
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"In view of the protests in his own country, Putin can no longer exert such strong pressure on Lukashenko and demand that he hand over power," believes the political scientist Karbalevich. "Putin himself won't either." The situation of the two heads of state Putin and Lukashenko, one in power for 20 years, the other for 26 years, is too similar.
The Belarusian ruler therefore took the opportunity and swore unity with Russia, his most important ally: "As long as we stand shoulder to shoulder, back to back, nobody will bring us to our knees or bow down." However, Lukashenko complained a little later about the high levels Interest that Minsk has to pay for Russian loans in a global comparison.
In about two weeks he will travel to Sochi to meet Putin.
According to a report in the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Lukashenko also wants to talk about a new loan of at least three billion dollars.
Icon: The mirror
Collaboration: Tatiana Chukhlomina
