02/11/2021 22:15
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 02/11/2021 10:15 PM
Martín Guzmán directly attacked private consultants and economists:
"They never hit the mark."
It had been half an hour that this Thursday he was speaking on the question of prices.
It was at the Casa Rosada, to convince businessmen to
converge on 30% adjustments.
The tone was firm.
The bomb dropped it armed with a graphic.
This is what he said: "In this historical REM index, it can be seen that
consulting firms generate totally wrong expectations
in Argentina."
The silence deepened.
He was heard by a score of captains of the industry.
Luis Pagani and Paolo Roca –because they were out of Buenos Aires– did not attend.
Guzmán suggested that his colleagues are biased and
try to influence politics with their data.
So he said: "During the previous government the projections were low and aligned with what the ruling party wanted."
"Much lower," he said, "than the inflationary explosion that occurred with Macri."
And it ended hard: "Now they double our forecasts and
generate a negative expectation
about prices."
The statement against the private consultants was a central point of the meeting this Thursday at the Casa Rosada.
The minister wanted to
discredit the projection of 50%
that generates inflationary expectations.
Guzmán did not mention anyone.
But they all fell into the bag: Carlos Melconian, Miguel Broda, Miguel Kiguel, Daniel Artana, Javier Milei, Roberto Cachanosky, Orlando Ferreres, Eduardo Levy Yeyati ..
The "profession" maintains that the economy
is adrift
and that everything is
"wired."
They also assure that there is no anti-inflationary policy and that the exchange rate “pax” is
precarious.
Guzmán -after- made a call: that
l
will employers accept the budget guidelines
and lower inflation expectations.
The minister
played hard
, because the rise in prices set off the alarms in the Casa Rosada.
Inflation - if it remains at 4% in January - can
pulverize wages, stunt the rebound and complicate the election.
The stinging issue was discussed - a week ago - at the highest political level.
It was at a meeting of Alberto Fernández, Máximo Kirchner and Sergio Massa.
The trio agreed on
the urgency to act immediately.
The government lacks ideas to combat the price hike.
The Chief of Staff, Santiago Cafiero, and Minister Martín Guzmán, hosts the meeting with businessmen at Casa Rosada.
Among the officials there are long memories of agreements, pacts and controls.
Ephemerally successful actions in Argentina that are reminiscent of the Gelbard Plan, the Austral Plan or - worse -
the fascist actions of Guillermo Moreno.
This Thursday there were two surprises at the Casa Rosada summit.
First, Guzmán made a different reading: he attributed inflation to the imbalance of the macroeconomy.
So he said: "Inflation occurs due to macroeconomic imbalances."
The response of the industry captains was also surprising: they
applauded Guzmán's presentation.
And they avoided shaking their palms when other ministers spoke.
The condescending attitude of the businessmen was consistent with the Liaison Table.
The meeting with Alberto started badly.
The "Four" raised the discomfort for the President's disdain.
But Alberto fought back: he used the repeated device that he had been taken out of context.
The President said:
"I wanted an agreement with you
.
"
Jorge Chemes endorsed his sayings and that is how the "pipe of peace" was smoked.
The Casa Rosada intends to seek consensus to attack inflation.
Businessmen don't want conflict, but the lack of political clarity makes noise.
The UIA insists that
Cristina is a distorting factor.
Factory leaders ask themselves:
does Guzmán's rationality have the vice president's endorsement?
The "Cristina factor"
weakens all signs of economic sanity.
The Casa Rosada knows that weakness and has now produced a strong story: its spokesmen
insist that the agreement with the IMF is about to be closed.
In Washington they are "cautious" and the "wolves" of Wall Street believe
the opposite:
that there are still many differences and that the negotiations are going to be delayed.
The strong setback caused by the YPF negotiation opened a series of doubts abroad.
The oil company closed the negotiation this Thursday and the "success story" does not hide the truth: even yielding –in the end- to all the demands of the Wall Street wolves,
the acceptance of the proposal was weak.
In the world of finance, there is talk of "success" when a renegotiation has 90% support.
YPF achieved 60% for short-term bonds.
There was a lot of noise and crossfire in the company.
At the Alberto-Máximo-Massa meeting there were criticisms of the leadership of YPF.
The trio agreed with Cristina: she was furious with the inexperience in the way of negotiating.
The oil company started with a barricade proposal and
ended up accepting all of Manhattan's claims.
The issue provoked a strong version this week: the possibility of the CEO, Sergio Afrontti's replacement.
Pablo González, who takes a license as a deputy to lead the YPF, poses with Máximo Kirchner.
They want to load the executive with "the roman" of the mishaps in the negotiation.
But YPF spokesmen were blunt: they say that is not true and that Afrontti remains in command of the oil company.
The situation - in the end - will depend on the new leadership in charge of Pablo González.
This Thursday the Chamber of Deputies approved the license - incredible that he does not resign, to assume such a transcendent position - to lead YPF.
González competed with Mariano Recalde to replace Guillermo Nielsen.
The senator was the initial candidate to preside over YPF, but González's appointment - he was formed alongside Néstor Kirchner - generated less external noise.
International doubts about Argentina are important.
They are due to distrust of the ruling party and also due to the mismanagement - there were hopes that were not fulfilled - of the macrismo.
This led to a conflict that avoided the vaccine contract with Pfizer.
In other words: the
lack of credibility in Argentina
complicated the negotiation with the laboratory.
Clarín
announced that one reason for the truncated contract was due to the fact that Pfizer's headquarters demanded that the agreement have jurisdiction in the courts of Manhattan.
Albert Bourla's team - the chairman of Brooklyn - distrusted Argentina when there was a modification to the vaccine law.
To cover itself, the laboratory requested the courts of New York and a multi-million dollar risk insurance contracted in the US, of more than 100 million dollars.
But the negotiation was cut off when the parent company
demanded something impossible for Kirchnerism to accept
: that embassies, ships - such as the Libertad Frigate - and other sovereign assets abroad be included as seizable assets of Argentina.
Nicolás Vaquer - the CEO in Argentina - made an effort to avoid the collision.
But Manhattan's mistrust of Argentina was insurmountable.
The issue of vaccines is key.
Now, ANMAT does not want to approve the Sinopharm vaccine because the Chinese have not yet delivered all the documentation.
The situation is recognized at the UIA:
vaccination is key to reviving activity.
Also in the factory headquarters there is its own boiling: there is a "head to head" to elect a president and several factory chiefs could return.
Cristiano Rattazzi asked Héctor Méndez to withdraw his resignation and many went looking for Juan Carlos Sacco.
Miguel Acevedo doubts about continuing to lead the UIA and the shifting Daniel Funes del Rioja
tries on the
president's
suit
.
Look also
Businessmen at Casa Rosada: concern about the vaccine, applause for Martín Guzmán and concern about the controls of Matías Kulfas
When you thought of an inevitable crash, now in the field you breathe another air
