Catalonia is played at the polls to overcome a decade of fracture

Catalonia celebrates this Sunday its fourth regional elections since ten years ago the then president of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, proclaimed the beginning of what he called the "national transition process", the

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in popular jargon.

The polls do not elucidate whether the eternal tie that has since been registered between independentists and non-independentists will clearly fall on one side or the other this time, but the polarization of Catalan society continues, now with concern about the scars left by the coronavirus crisis.

If the polls do not clarify which party may govern the Generalitat, they do clarify that the territorial debate is no longer the priority.

What is far from improving is the assessment of the political situation: up to 84% of citizens rate it as bad or very bad, according to the latest barometer of the Catalan Government.

• The Generalitat guarantees the constitution of all polling stations in all municipalities

• The campaign for the Catalan elections ends with the risk of blockade

According to the polls, there are three parties that are competing for the first place: the Partit dels Socialistes (PSC), Esquerra Republicana (ERC) and Junts per Catalunya.

But whoever wins this Sunday night will not necessarily govern, due to the intricacies of pacts that will have to be woven to achieve a majority, agreements that are in quarantine due to the vetoes crossed between parties and the impassable wall that continues to be the independence question.

Hence the risk that Catalonia will continue to be bogged down in what some observers have described as a "lost decade" due to the institutional blockade associated with the

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, the lack of progress in self-government and the loss of economic momentum of Catalonia vis-à-vis other more dynamic communities.

In this sense, it has been key that Madrid has surpassed Catalonia in terms of GDP in recent years.

While presidents, unstable government coalitions, a failed declaration of independence, imprisonment and flight of those responsible and even an intervention of autonomy, Catalan society has been petrified into two blocks.

The sociologist Marina Subirats sums up the situation like this: "For many, independence is their bet against the world, something they stubbornly defend, despite not being achievable in the short term, while others are committed to turning the page without being able to settle an alternative project."

Subirats, former president of the Women's Institute and former councilor of Barcelona for the PSC, predicts that it is most likely that another pro-independence government will emerge from these elections and considers that this does nothing more than "continue to weaken Catalonia", especially because it will insist on ideas not feasible.

"A senior ERC leader once told me that independence would not come for at least two generations," he recalls.

So the management of the meanwhile is guessed as the main workhorse of Catalan politics in the coming years.

For some it will be to manage the while independence does not arrive;

for others, how to get out of the situation while the political mess is not calmed down, which is still marked by the prison situation - now in the third degree - of the

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leaders

and of those residing in Belgium who have fled from Spanish justice.

The fear of the social and economic agents is not so much that Catalonia continues under a pro-independence government - many take it for granted, although they discard another declaration of independence - but that the climate of blockade continues.

"Catalonia has already lost a decade and now, with the coronavirus crisis, it is urgent not to waste any more time, so we ask that the new Government's priority be to agree on a budget with broad support that allows it to face the social emergency and the reconstruction of the productive fabric ”, sums up Josep Sánchez Llibre, president of Foment, the main Catalan employers' association.

It will not be easy to reach these agreements.

Some polls place the PSC of Salvador Illa with serious options to win, but its announced agreement with the commons, the Catalan referent of United We Can, would not be enough to govern.

And the pro-independence parties have closed the campaign by putting in writing that they will not negotiate with the socialists the formation of any government.

The other problem is that neither the pro-independence bloc is guaranteed to constitute an Executive, due to the unknowns of whether the Puigdemontistas of the Junts could lead it or if this time the numbers would give ERC to try.

The strength that the CUP may have - in 2016 it already forced the replacement of Artur Mas - and the irruption or not of the pragmatic independence movement of the PDeCAT close the circle of unknowns.

Much more remote is the possibility of a socialist government with support from the right, involved in a fierce struggle between PP and Vox to lead their respective segment in Catalonia.

The problem is that the political vetoes due to the

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also affect the renewal of public bodies, starting with the managing body of Catalan television and ending with the setting of priorities of the Government.

The secretary general of the UGT of Catalonia, Camil Ros, believes that this polarization is behind problems such as the fact that the Generalitat has spent three of the last four years without current budgets.

"That is why we urgently need budgets for 2021 if we do not want to lose all this year, which we already know will be a serious economic crisis."

A little more optimistic is Aurora Catà, president of the BCN Global economic boost association.

He affirms that the most urgent thing now is a party agreement in favor of economic recovery, but he considers that the starting point of Barcelona and Catalonia is not bad if the global economic crisis is left aside.

"The commitment we need for growth has a good base with technology companies and innovation and health clusters that work, such as BCN Health Hub," he explains.

In this sense, it considers that the new Administration must accompany these initiatives by betting on the generation of talent.

"More than capital, what we need is to generate talent, and for this we need a commitment to education and research", adds Catà.

A list of requests no less for a Government of which on Sunday night there may be hardly a sketch.