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Bundeswehr soldiers in Mazar-e-Sharif in 2018: a precarious situation
Photo: Michael Kappeler / DPA
For the time being, NATO will continue its operation in Afghanistan.
Germany and the other allies have apparently agreed not to take a decision at the defense ministers' meeting on Wednesday and Thursday about the withdrawal of around 10,000 soldiers remaining in the country.
"I assume that the meeting of the NATO defense ministers this week will not lead to a definitive decision, i.e. the withdrawal of NATO troops by April 30, 2021," said a spokesman for the defense ministry.
Instead, the militant Islamist Taliban should once again be called upon to reduce violence and make further efforts in the peace negotiations with the government.
One wants to leave Afghanistan only when the conditions allow it, it said from alliance circles.
The violence caused in particular by Taliban attacks continues to undermine the peace process and must come to an end.
Taliban threaten "great war"
High-ranking military officials in Berlin have now warned of new attacks by the Taliban, including on Bundeswehr soldiers.
The US had actually given the insurgents the prospect of withdrawing all foreign soldiers by the end of April via the so-called Doha Agreement in order to induce them to hold peace talks and a significant reduction in violence in the country.
With their course, the NATO states are accepting that the Taliban will again attack international troops after a long break.
"If the Doha Agreement is terminated, it will lead to a great war," the group said in early February.
According to alliance circles, attempts are still being made to persuade the Taliban to accept a postponement of the deadline for troop withdrawal - the new US administration is still officially examining a possible withdrawal by the end of April.
Whether this strategy works is completely open.
According to experts, the Taliban could be tempted to end the peace negotiations and rely on a military solution to the conflict.
Bundeswehr personnel greatly reduced
Due to the lack of clarity about the progress of the NATO mission, the German government wants to extend the Bundestag mandate for the Bundeswehr in March, but only until the end of 2021. Until then, Berlin wants to wait and see how the US and NATO decide on Afghanistan.
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In the past few months, the Bundeswehr had already brought all the material that was not needed from Mazar-e-Sharif in the north of the country back to Germany.
The staff was also reduced to the so-called operational minimum.
The Bundeswehr has even withdrawn completely from the Kunduz outpost.
The actual mission of the Bundeswehr, providing military advice to the Afghan army, has hardly been possible for months due to the corona pandemic.
The German mentors speak to their Afghan partners via video chat, but real advice or even training of recruits is not possible.
Particularly easy to attack in retreat
In Berlin, the strategists are concerned about the uncertainty about the deployment.
Last week, high-ranking military officials warned behind closed doors in the Defense Committee that the Taliban could resume their attacks on NATO troops and their camps because of the suspension of the withdrawal.
The situation is very precarious.
Especially in an emergency, i.e. when the camps are attacked, the Bundeswehr and all NATO nations depend on the USA's support with fighter jets and drones.
But after the USA has already reduced its troops to 2500 men, no one knows exactly whether this emergency protection is still guaranteed.
Even if NATO decides a slightly delayed withdrawal, that would be unfavorable for the Bundeswehr, warned the military in the committee.
In retreat, i.e. when transporting people and material away, the troops are particularly easy to attack.
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mgb / sep / dpa
