Although the world is in a pandemic of unimaginable proportions, various raw material prices have recently increased noticeably.
There are several reasons for this.
Frankfurt - Not only the crude oil prices are clearly pointing upwards.
The situation is similar with other important raw materials that German companies depend on.
According to the World Bank, the prices of 53 of the 63 raw materials observed in December 2020 were above the level of the previous year - and that in the middle of the corona pandemic.
According to experts, this has mainly to do with increasing confidence.
"Much is currently driven by mood," says commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank.
He also sees a connection with the amount of money that is looking for investment opportunities in view of the low interest rates of the central banks and lavish economic stimulus programs.
Commodity prices: US sanctions drive higher oil prices in the market
North Sea Brent oil is now as expensive as it was before the start of the pandemic, at around $ 63 per barrel (159 liters).
Production cuts by Saudi Arabia are also driving the price, but these are considered temporary.
That could cause prices to decline in the second quarter before demand picks up again.
According to Fritsch, this could be avoided if Iran returns to the oil market - if the new US administration relaxes sanctions.
Then oil - at $ 50 a barrel - will be significantly cheaper.
In contrast, the development of industrial metals is downright brilliant.
In some cases there were new record prices.
But here, too, the mood plays a role, say analysts.
The LMEX metal price index has risen by around 60 percent since its low in March 2020.
Copper has even risen by 75 percent.
"There is still no end to the rally in sight," says Daniel Briesemann from Commerzbank.
There were also major price jumps for nickel and tin, each with a plus of 40 percent within a year.
It is 30 percent for zinc and 20 percent for aluminum.
The main driver is the development in China.
Last year, the country imported more copper and iron ore than ever before.
In the meantime, experts believe that the gigantic empire does not need these quantities at all and that a lot is on the heap.
However, the development is inconsistent, as Commerzbank expert Briesemann says.
In 2020, for example, the demand for steel collapsed massively.
Gold, silver and more: Speculators are also driving up prices
In the case of industrial metals, however, speculators apparently also play a role.
They have jumped on the bandwagon and are betting on copper prices that will continue to rise.
The Commerzbank experts consider the market for industrial metals to be overheated and expect prices to fall, which should benefit German industry.
“Megatrends are driving demand for metal,” says DZ Bank, on the other hand.
Home office leads to more digitization, which in turn requires more data centers.
"For this, metals, which are required for cooling systems, cabling and the production of semiconductors, for example, are indispensable." E-mobility is also promoting demand.
Precious metals such as palladium, platinum, silver and gold have also risen significantly in the course of the year, silver by almost 47 percent.
Experts expect further price increases this year.
The prices for agricultural commodities also increased significantly within a year - at a peak of 45 percent for corn and 56 percent for soybeans.
