Stock market in the year of the ox | Capital group is in a trend, Lin Shaoyang described as "forced" and there are fewer assets under the epidemic

Special interview

Written by: Ou Jiajun

2021-02-16 08:00

Last update date: 2021-02-16 08:00

Mainland public funds are rushing to launch. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of newly established funds has exceeded 630 billion yuan.

For newly-issued funds that have entered the period of opening positions, their investment portfolios are always inseparable from industry leaders in technology, medicine, new energy, and liquor. “Group stocks” are rising more and more. The valuation of individual stocks has been much higher than the historical average. How should we treat the phenomenon of "grouping"?

"Bao Tuan" is used to describe the phenomenon that institutional investors are highly concentrated in individual industries or stocks. Baijiu is a typical example. Fund managers are optimistic about the pricing power and brand concentration of high-end Baijiu, and funds have poured in. Kweichow Moutai ( 600519) and Wuliangye (000858) have risen 30.2% and 17.4% since the beginning of the year, and their dynamic P/E ratios have reached 73 times and 68 times.

From the perspective of fund income, the income derived from the promotion of valuation has far exceeded the income expected by corporate earnings.

The second largest fund "Baotuan stocks" is Meituan (3690), which is held by 170 public funds with 147 million shares.

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Tencent, Meituan into the south of the capital "holding group" focus

The phenomenon of capital "grouping" is also going south to Hong Kong stocks, especially the technology leaders that are lacking in the mainland market.

According to data in the fourth quarter of 2020, Tencent Holdings (0700) is a Hong Kong stock held by the largest number of public offering funds, with a total of 332 public offering funds holding a total of 132 million shares. If none of these funds have been held this year Tencent, which has reduced its holdings by 35% this year, will earn nearly HK$27 billion in floating profits for these funds.

The second largest fund "Baotuan stocks" is Meituan (3690). A total of 170 public funds hold Meituan, holding 147 million shares.

CICC issued a report last month, stating that grouping may be a long-term trend.

The bank pointed out that in recent years, active public offerings have focused on the new economy, and adjustments are more focused on growth. However, they believe that there is no need to worry too much about the impact of the dissolution of "Bao Tuan", because the current active public offerings have not completely deviated from the fundamentals, and institutional holdings are less Some stocks are concentrated or long-term trends.

Lin Shaoyang: Funds for self-protection

Lin Shaoyang, managing director of Yili Investment, said that "grouping" is a market trend in recent years. For example, US stocks have been enthusiastic about "FAANG" in the past, but the epidemic and global volume easing have made the market more polarized. In the environment of zero and negative interest rates, After 10 to 20 years of chasing funds, companies that can survive and whose business is guaranteed to continue to grow, and avoid industries that have the opportunity to be disrupted by technology, "even if it grows 2%, it is better than a negative number", describing this kind of market The practice is just "for self-protection."

Lin Shaoyang, managing director of Yili Investment, said that "grouping" is a market trend in recent years, describing the situation as "forced."

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He pointed out that the speed of printing money in the United States in a few months is equal to the sum of the past 10 years, but is different from the radical fiscal policy after the 2008 financial crisis. This time the liquidity of funds is distributed to all sectors of society. "Look at the unemployment rate in the United States. With new highs, property prices have also hit new highs, creating a peculiar phenomenon.” In the epidemic, there are fewer high-quality assets to choose from, making the upward trend of rare assets even more rapid.

As for whether there will be a risk of dissolution of "Bao Tuan", Lin Shaoyang believes that the market is still full of flowers, and whether it will be disbanded, one can pay attention to geopolitical risks and interest rate changes.

He described the market as a "valuation machine." In the long run, valuations will normalize. However, some stocks have not been revalued for many years. We must pay attention to the reasons behind them. For example, some companies that have taken over from the rich second generation in Hong Kong have no incentive to do well. It doesn’t matter if you buy a business. You, as an investor or a small citizen, want to spend money. There is no reason to compare the money. You don’t want to cling to each other, but are forced."

Three themes of "losing hard" cash

However, the market efficiency is extremely high, the group favored by the market, and the valuation is rapidly expanding, making it difficult for investors to start.

Lin Shaoyang pointed out that the market has indeed been hot in recent months, and it feels difficult to actually operate. Investment should depend on risk appetite and industry knowledge.

However, in the global release, he also frankly said that "cashing of cash will definitely lose hard." He suggested to pay attention to the three main themes of long-term outperforming accounts. One is property prices and rents, and property assets should be locked in as soon as possible; second, the global population is aging and average life span is prolonged , So that the medical demand is increasing; the third is education cleaning fees, because parents do not know the skills to nurture their children.

Hong Kong stock market trend Hong Kong stock market Lin Shaoyang