Merkel expert raises mutation alarm: "Are currently facing at least two pandemics"

Germany is worried about the spread of the corona mutation B.1.1.7.

Systems immunologist Michael Meyer-Hermann sees reaching the target incidence of 35 in danger.

Braunschweig - Preventing the spread of virus mutations - that is currently the top priority of Corona policy.

The lockdown * in Germany has been extended until March 7, although the number of infections and the 7-day incidence are falling.

At the borders to the virus mutation areas of the Czech Republic and Tyrol there have been stricter controls since Sunday.

Nevertheless, mutation outbreaks occur again and again, such as on Monday in Hamm.

Corona lockdown in Germany: Meyer-Hermann sees incidence value 35 in danger because of mutant B.1.1.7

After the last Corona summit by the federal and state governments, a 7-day incidence of 35 was given as the target value for possible easing.

The systems immunologist Michael Meyer-Hermann now sees the danger that more contagious variants of the coronavirus * could torpedo this target value.

The physicist and mathematician is currently the head of the Immunology System Department at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig and is a regular member of the advisors to Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) before Corona summits.

If the occurrence of mutant B.1.1.7 develops more unfavorably than expected, it could be that the 7-day incidence of 35 cannot be reached with the current Corona * lockdown, Meyer-Hermann explained to the dpa.

"This makes it clear that any form of opening at the present time carries a high risk of not being able to achieve the goals set," he warned.

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Michael Meyer-Hermann, Head of the System Immunology Department at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig.

(Archive image)

© Jürgen Heinrich / imago-images

Corona lockdown in Germany: "We are currently facing at least two pandemics"

“We are currently facing at least two pandemics,” Meyer-Hermann continues.

"We have the old one under control with the current measures and bring the incidences down with a reproduction number of 0.85." An incidence of 35 could be achieved at the beginning of March - but without the planned slight openings and without an unfavorable in-between spark of mutations .

Because: In conservative estimates, the British virus variant B.1.1.7 * has a 35 percent higher probability of transmission.

"In Germany it is already in a phase of exponential growth and the current measures are not enough to slow this development," warned Meyer-Hermann.

"The more you relax because of the falling incidences, the earlier the third wave with B.1.1.7 will develop."

Corona in Germany: delay the spread of virus variant B.1.1.7 with lockdown measures

The virus variant B.1.1.7 spreads exponentially with low absolute case numbers with a reproduction number above 1.

"Roughly estimated 1.2," explained Meyer-Hermann.

“You just don't see that because most cases still occur with the old variant.

Sooner or later, B.1.1.7 will dominate. "

By maintaining the current lockdown measures in Germany, the expansion of this variant can be delayed for so long that the number of cases would fall sufficiently - as already described in the no-covid concept.

It advocates incidence values ​​of around 10.

The third wave can be intercepted with the better possible follow-up, predicted Meyer-Hermann.

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Systems immunologist Michael Meyer-Hermann sees the target incidence value of 35 in danger due to the spread of the virus mutation B.1.1.7 in Germany.

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© Annette Riedl / dpa

Corona in Germany: Areas close to high incidence regions are more difficult to lower incidence

"Basically, the areas bordering high-incidence regions have more difficulties in lowering the incidence," added the researcher.

"This is all the more true as there is also a higher risk of introducing the new variants." This can currently be seen in the example of the eastern Bavarian district of Tirschenreuth.

It is in close proximity to the Czech Republic, where the virus variant B.1.1.7 has spread widely.

With a 7-day incidence of 309.5 (as of February 16), the Tirschenreuth district is by far the number one in Germany.

The reduction in the incidence could therefore take longer in some regions and faster in others, explained Meyer-Hermann.

If you know the origin of all corona infections * in a region, then you can open locally there, according to the researcher.

(ph / dpa) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital editors network

List of rubric lists: © Jürgen Heinrich via www.imago-images.de