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Written by: Huang Yongyu
2021-02-18 19:13
The last update date: 2021-02-18 19:19
The fourth wave of the epidemic hit the economy hard. The unemployment rate from November 2020 to January 2021 rose to 7%, a record high in nearly 17 years, with more than 253,300 unemployed.
Some scholars and human resources consultants believe that the unemployment rate has not yet peaked and the peak is expected to rise to 7.5%, but it will not exceed the 2003 SARS level, "unless there is a major change in the epidemic or the vaccine is useless"; some catering industry pointed out, Today, dine-in dinners in the evening market have resumed, and the market has become "angry". Many restaurants have hired more temporary staff, which I believe will help ease the unemployment rate.
The Census and Statistics Department today (18) released the latest statistics on the labor force. In the latest quarter (November to January), the unemployment rate rose to 7.0%, and the underemployment rate rose to 3.8%. Among them, retail, accommodation and catering services, education The unemployment rate and underemployment rate in the arts, entertainment, and recreational activities industry have increased relatively significantly.
It is expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise but will not exceed the SARS level
. Li Zhaobo, a senior lecturer at the CUHK Business School, believes that the unemployment rate in the latest period will rise by 0.4%, which is believed to be due to the long duration of the fourth wave.
He expects that the unemployment rate will continue to rise, but the rate will slow down. The highest peak is 7.5%, but it will not exceed the SARS level. It will not improve until the third quarter of this year at the earliest. "Unless there is a major change in the epidemic or a vaccine useless".
Li said that because Hong Kong is an export-oriented economy, if normal customs clearance and exchanges with other places are not resumed, unemployment in certain industries such as tourism, aviation, and retail will continue to deteriorate. He believes that the rate and effectiveness of vaccination are crucial. .
Li Zhaobo, senior lecturer at CUHK Business School.
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There may be a chance to rise to 7.5% and then run rampant for a while
, Su Weizhong, general manager of United Personnel Consulting Co., Ltd. believes that there will still be upward pressure in the short term. Although the government has relaxed some restrictions, large weddings and gatherings are still suspended. I believe the business environment is still It is very difficult. It means that the unemployment rate has not yet peaked. In the future, companies will still lay off employees and close their businesses, but the rate of increase may slow down. It is expected to rise to 7.5% and run rampant for some time.
He also pointed out that in the past year, the epidemic has been repeated and employers have adopted a cautious attitude. New trends have also emerged in recruitment. The proportion of long-term workers has decreased significantly. Instead, they tend to hire contract workers and casual workers.
Huang Jiahe pointed out that even if the stock market is booming, it has not boosted the catering industry.
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The government's relaxation of
dine-in
evening meals has given restaurants a "first line of vitality."
Huang Jiahe, chairman of the Federation of Catering Industry Association, pointed out that the evening dine-in
food has
been resumed today. The market conditions have become "angry". Many restaurants have hired more temporary staff. I believe it will help Relieve the unemployment rate.
Although the unemployment rate and underemployment rate of the catering service activity industry in the latest quarter have risen significantly to 14.7% and 10.0%, respectively, he said that it has been lower than expected.
He explained that the government launched the Anti-epidemic and Anti-epidemic Fund 4.0, allowing restaurants to wait until the subsidy is approved before making a decision. Coupled with the government's earlier announcement, there is an opportunity to relax evening dine-in meals on the seventh day of the day, making most restaurants hold a wait-and-see attitude.
He pointed out that the association had predicted that 3,000 restaurants were on the verge of closing down. After the government relaxed the dinner dine-in market, 2,000 did not have to close down and 1,000 restaurants were still struggling.
Regarding the unemployment rate in the catering industry in the next period, he believes that it will drop slightly, "where there is opening, there will be jobs." However, he frankly said that March to May is the off-season, and he is still worried about the future. I believe it depends on the development of the epidemic and whether the government will Relax the measures again.
▼From the seventh day of the New Year's Day on February 18th, you must use peace of mind to travel for dinner in the city
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Labor union's financial plan "Save the unemployment"
Tang Gung-yao, director of the Rights and Interests Committee of the Federation of Trade Unions, said that the unemployment problem continues to worsen. Although the government has relaxed the threshold for applying for working family allowance, it is only a "small favor". He urges the government to introduce "unemployment relief" measures in the budget, including an allocation of 15 billion. Yuan, set up an emergency unemployment assistance fund, and create more temporary jobs.
▼The epidemic slows down on the seventh day of the year (February 18), conditions for social distancing measures are relaxed ▼
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