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Army and Security
"Abu Mazen's show" is about to begin.
The IDF will be happy if it ends quickly
Barghouti insists on running in the PA presidential election and creates a rift in the Fatah movement, which is playing into the hands of Hamas in its efforts to take over the West Bank.
The IDF is closely monitoring and preparing for a situation in which the move, which was initially perceived as a wink by Abu Mazen to Baidan, will end in a shake-up and dragging into action.
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the Palestinian Authority
IDF
Abu Mazen
Hamas
Marwan Barghouti
Amir Bohbot
Saturday, February 20, 2021, 12:15 p.m.
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Abu Mazen at the UN: "There will be no stability in the region without a Palestinian state" (Photo: Reuters, edited by Assaf Drori)
At the beginning of the second intifada, Marwan Barghouti, also known as "Abu Qassam", saw himself as a political leader in the Fatah ranks, but as time went on, intelligence material was piled up in the GSS linking him to deadly attacks on Israeli citizens. The top priority of the GSS and the IDF and he was declared the number one target in the West Bank. Within a night, he became a Tanzim leader, popular and well-liked on the Palestinian street and had connections with politicians from the Israeli left - a senior wanted man who went underground and changed hiding places every few days. Until April 15, 2002. The
GSS was able to bring accurate intelligence.
Two factions of the Cherry Undercover Unit, which conducted a stubborn manhunt for it, this time jumped into the Al Bira neighborhood of Ramallah.
The GSS coordinator who stood on the side of the street next to the cherry power commander pointed to a two-story building. “We circled the house.
We announced to the family to leave.
Barghouti did not leave, "said one of the commanders who made the arrest, adding," After the family left, he decided to turn himself in.
Came out with raised hands.
Very scared.
Looks weak.
With a beard.
After a period under hunt.
"The GSS coordinator put him in the car and our mission was over."
Barghouti spent long hours in GSS interrogation rooms, was prosecuted in Israel and sentenced to five cumulative life sentences and 40 years.
Barghouti, 62, has been serving his sentence from his cell in Hadarim prison for 19 years, but with great ingenuity has managed to maintain his high status in Palestinian politics. In addition to becoming the prisoner leader, he managed to win first place in the 2016 Fatah Central Committee election. A signal to anyone who thought he would be eulogized. From time to time, he rose to prominence in Israeli-Palestinian rotational deals, but public discourse declined. The defense establishment has warned that Barghouti has not moderated after years in prison and his release could shake the relative stability of the Fatah movement and divide the Palestinian Authority. And Samaria.
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Managed to preserve from prison his high status in Palestinian politics.
Barghouti in court, 2004 (Photo: AP, David Silverman)
After years of provocations from prison and involvement up to the neck in Palestinian politics, about two months ago Marwan Barghouti became the hot name in the West Bank when he was presented as a presidential candidate, after Abu Mazen announced elections in May-June this year to the Legislative Council and then to the Palestinian Authority.
This is after a very long period in which there were no elections in the PA.
Sources in the defense establishment estimated that this was a "show" by Abu Mazen and expressed great doubt whether he would fulfill his commitment to the elections to the Legislative Council against the background of the polls, interpretations and the fear that Fatah would lose to Hamas.
So why, after all, did Abu Mazen (84) announce the election?
Israeli security officials estimate that this is an attempt to relieve pressure from senior Palestinian officials who want to improve their status in the future race after his departure.
The Palestinian street, on the other hand, is not really interested in the elections and is quite busy with its daily existence and the fight against the corona virus.
Security officials further estimated that the announcement of the Palestinian Authority elections is a step that is all a wink to US President Joe Biden.
Abu Mazen estimates that in this way he will be able to pave the way for a dialogue with the White House, after years of stalemate with former President Donald Trump, and even initiate a political process with Israel through American mediation.
Security sources estimate that although Abu Mazen is not interested in the presidential election and the Legislative Council election is still in doubt, he sees the process as a step that will help him raise funds from Western and Arab countries, and restore funding for projects and infrastructure stopped during Trump.
The IDF also estimates that the chances of Abu Mazen fulfilling his commitment to the PA presidential election are almost non-existent. "He is unpopular to say the least on the Palestinian street and his nearby hive is perceived as corrupt," a military official in the Central Command said in closed talks.
He's a political fox.
He knows how to play the game and in a moment he can turn around and find the excuse to come down from the tree and say that the election will not take place. "
Abu Mazen in Ramallah, June 2020 (Photo: Reuters)
As part of the "presentation of Abu Mazen" and the desire to be portrayed as a democratic body, in the words of security officials in Israel, the Palestinian system is vigorously promoting preparations for the elections.
Just last week, Hisham Kahil, director general of the Palestinian Election Commission, announced that the rate of registrants in the PA's voter register was among the highest in the world, as at the time of writing, over 93.38% had been registered in the voter register.
True doubt, false doubt - this is another hint that the political arena means elections.
An equally interesting process takes place in the citrus prison.
From the moment Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas announced his intention to hold elections to the Legislative Council and the presidency, Barghouti's cell became one of the most important in the Palestinian election campaign. The split is imminent, to strengthen its power and take over the institutions of the authority.
This is a Palestinian and Israeli nightmare that materialized years ago in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas is in power.
Therefore, this is a very dangerous security and political step for Israel, which wants to maintain stability.
As part of the pressure that Barghouti's candidacy on an independent list produces, he paid a visit to the prison of Khsine a-Sheikh, a member of Fatah's Central Committee, last Thursday, and tried to speak to Barghouti's heart so that he would not run for president.
The visit itself indicates that the Israeli side has an interest in persuading Barghouti to return.
Al-Sheikh stressed the importance of Palestinian national cohesion in general and of Fatah in particular, especially in light of the fear that his run against Abu Mazen would lead to a broad rift in the movement - a situation that could fall into the hands of Hamas, which also wants to take political control of Judea and Samaria.
According to Central Command military sources, Barghouti rejected the request outright, but there are a number of scenarios, including a legal blockade and Barghouti's impediment, or in the extreme case as everyone estimates: the cancellation of the presidential election with a variety of excuses.
Hamas sees the election process as an opportunity to increase control, and it is not for nothing that senior members of the organization, Salah Aruri and Yahya Sinwar, came to Cairo to attend talks with Egyptian-mediated Palestinian faction leaders, to see that the planned arrangement does not detract from the terrorist organization from Gaza.
According to the IDF, the differentiation policy makes it possible to control the area. Hamas exercise in Gaza, last year (Photo: Reuters)
It is not possible to talk about the election campaign for the Legislative Council and the presidency without delving into Hamas' activities in Judea and Samaria.
The IDF claims that the policy of differentiation between Gaza and Judea and Samaria makes it possible to control the territory and prevent terrorist attacks. Any attempt to change the equation could put Israeli civilians and soldiers at risk, as Hamas tries to carry out terrorist attacks every day.
2020 was a relatively quiet year. Judea and Samaria under the direction of Hamas from Gaza or abroad, since the GSS thwarted dozens of cases.
At the same time, the defense establishment estimates that a deadly attack or strategic surprises by Hamas in the West Bank could shake the region, drag the IDF back into activity in the Palestinian-built territories and lead to escalation. "If the PA security forces act against Hamas, what good are they not doing? We will have to get the job inside, "security officials said this week. They pointed to Abu Mazen as a weakening political figure losing control of Judea and Samaria.
There are many signs of a lack of governance on the ground. Tensions between Fatah officials who claim his chair are creating hostility. Their heads and reminded everyone that they are still holding weapons and able to take to the streets to demonstrate power.
I wonder if Israel will allow the elections that could put Hamas in the back door.
IDF fighters (Photo: IDF Spokesman)
Officers in the Judea and Samaria Division talk a lot about the expectations of PA officials from the election campaign, and accordingly, disappointments if the processes do not work out as they wish. Get the attention or blackmail senior Palestinian Authority officials. These are the reasons why the Palestinian election campaign is definitely an Israeli affair.
The next date marked as sensitive is March 21, when the Palestinian factions will convene, presumably to discuss the PLO elections and the reorganization of the Palestinian National Council. .
According to security officials, the swords will be hoisted in the air, in the metaphorical sense.
After the conference, it will be clearer whether the PA elections will take place or whether the Palestinians will "blow up" the idea.
If they go all the way and decide that the process does take place, it will be interesting to see if Israel allows the elections that could put Hamas in the back door in a way that strengthens the power of the terrorist organization in Judea and Samaria.
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