Financial News
Author: Zhai Ziqian
2021-02-20 12:00
Last update date: 2021-02-20 12:00
Entering the beginning of 2021, Hong Kong stocks rushed up to 30,000 points, and the IPO market was also booming. Kuaishou (1024) and Nuohui Health (6606) alone have set many records or phenomena, such as more than one million investors When applying for subscription, large accounts only divide the goods by one hand, etc., it has also been reported that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange requires brokers to submit the information of Nuohui Health's winning customers to find out whether there are repeated applications from customers.
Some accounting firms predict that about 150 new stocks will be listed this year, many of which are hot spots, such as Bytedance, JD Logistics, Bilibili, and Naixue’s tea.
If the IPO boom continues, the phenomenon of "a stock is hard to find" will repeat itself.
Under this circumstance, experts believe that the "first-hand party" may be the biggest winner, and the big-handed margin trader may need to change. The "silver bullet" strategy fails at any time, resulting in profit and interest loss.
In less than two months after entering 2021, there have been two million subscriptions for new shares in the Hong Kong IPO market, including Kuaishou and Nuohui Health, which recorded 1.422 million and 1.063 million subscriptions respectively.
Among them, Nuohui Health's IPO results shocked the market, with a very low rate of one-handed signings. Even the big players in the "Group B" were unable to secure one hand.
As more and more key new stocks are listed in Hong Kong, including Bytedance, JD Logistics, Naixue’s Tea, etc., there are also many Chinese stocks that are listed on the second listing, such as Baidu, Bilibili, Tencent Music, and iQi. Art, fight a lot.
It can be seen from Nuohui Health, which has raised less than HK$2 billion in funds, that there may be more than a million people participating in IPO activities in the future, which can predict that the primary market will become more competitive in the future.
Under the enthusiasm for new shares, Nuohui Health received 1.06 million subscription applications, of which 564,800 were "first-hand".
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Nuohui Health Group B is also "difficult to find with one hand" due to the principle of fairness
Nuohui Health failed to win even Group B players. What is it like?
The subscription mechanism for new shares in Hong Kong is divided into Group A and Group B. The subscription amount is less than 5 million yuan for Group A, and on the contrary, more than 5 million yuan is for Group B.
Generally speaking, among the new shares offered for public offering in Hong Kong, 50% of the shares will be distributed to the two groups A and B.
Taking Nuohui Health as an example, 19.149 million shares were allocated to groups A and B respectively.
Portfolio A recorded a total of 1.001 million subscriptions, and the total number of subscriptions was 5.815 billion shares.
The final number of successful applicants was 38,299, and the overall winning rate was 3.8%; the distribution ratio was 0.3%.
＞＞＞Nuohui Health Group A and B allocation results ＜＜＜
Group A, the "first-hand party" who subscribed for 500 shares, recorded a total of 564,800 applicants, of which 11,298 received one lot. The distribution ratio and the first-hand lottery rate were both 2%.
As for subscribing for 2 lots (1,000 shares), the allocation ratio was 1.1%, and the probability of getting a lot rose to 2.2%.
Generally speaking, the more shares are applied for, the percentage of allotted shares in the application shares will decrease, but the winning rate of the first lot will be higher.
As mentioned above, Group B is divided into 50% of the shares, even if there are many applicants in Group A, it will not affect the result of Group B's allocation.
However, this time Nuohui Health’s Group B applicants have not been able to secure the first hand. The reason is that after 50% of the shares of Group A and Group B are divided, they must be distributed to the applicants on a fair basis, while Nuohui Health Group B has applied for shares. The number is as high as 25.844 billion shares. The number of shares that can be distributed is 19.149 million shares. The average distribution ratio is only 0.07%, but the winning rate is much higher than that of Group A.
As a result, the overall winning rate of the first lot in Group B was 61.8%, and only one lot can be secured by subscribing for 2 million shares or 4,000 lots.
Vesync (2148), which went public in December last year, adopted a "horizontal line allocation" in the allotment of new shares, which allowed applicants who received large-scale subscriptions to receive more shares.
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Allocation ratio is determined by the sponsor listed company
As mentioned above, the more shares are generally applied for, the lower the allocation ratio will be.
However, there are exceptions. As the "Listing Rules" only states that "a fair allocation basis must be used", the shares will be allocated to successful applicants according to the allocation basis set by the sponsor and the listed company, and there is no clear requirement How to determine the distribution ratio.
Among them, Vesync (2148), a small domestic appliance manufacturer that went public at the end of December last year, adopted a "horizontal line allocation" for a flat allocation. The allocation ratios for Group A and Group B were 1.54% and 0.66%, respectively, which is rare.
Such an allocation method, in a disguised form, causes applicants who subscribe for more shares to receive more shares. On the contrary, it is more difficult for "first-hand parties" with a larger number of people to win the lottery, making it easier for the supply of goods to be allocated.
Vesync's "horizontal line allocation" result
Since the allocation ratio is determined by the sponsor and the listed company, the applicant cannot know whether the winner of Group A or the winner of Group B has a greater chance of winning.
Taking Vesync as an example, due to the use of "horizontal distribution", the distribution ratio of the tail of group A is 1.54%, while the head of group B is only 0.66%.
As for the healthy group B head of Nuohui, although it is rare to be unable to stabilize the first hand, compared with the 0.1% distribution ratio of the group A tail, the group B head still has a higher distribution ratio of 0.12%.
This shows that joining Group B may not necessarily be able to get more shares.
Market brokerages offer IPO margin rates ranging from 2.98% to 3.98%, and the quota is limited.
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Pay attention to the interest cost when boarding the first group of margin show
However, considering that general IPOs will not use "horizontal allocation", Group B has a relatively higher chance of being allotted more shares. Many retail investors avoid fierce competition in Group A and will choose margin financing to increase the subscription amount. To more than 5 million yuan.
But it should be noted that the most important consideration for margin subscription is the interest cost.
The margin interest rate of the brokerage firms ranges from 2.98% to 3.98%, and the quota is limited.
Assuming that the first group B applicant who subscribes for Nuohui Health, the margin borrowing is about RMB 4.8 million, calculated at 2.98%, and the 7-day interest rate reaches RMB 2,700.
This means that among the first group B applicants who subscribed for 200,000 shares this time, about 16,000 have asked for "white eclipse" 7-day margin interest.
What is even more exaggerated is that when subscribing for 3.83 million shares of the "Head Hammer Flying", which involved a capital of 103 million yuan, all 760 applicants were allocated one hand, while only 82 applicants received one more hand.
If the same 90% margin is 2.98%, the 7-day interest rate exceeds 53,000 yuan.
After the listing of Kuaishou Technology, it has increased by 2.6 times and is expected to make more than 30,000 yuan.
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Kuaishou Nuohui rises,
Jinning pays margin and wins the first hand
However, taking Kuaishou and Nuohui Health as examples, the post-listing increase was astonishing. After the listing, Kuaishou reached 417.8 yuan, which was 2.6 times higher than the IPO price of 115 yuan. Nuohui Health increased by 2.2 times on the first day.
The madness of new stocks will inevitably make investors "tickled". They would rather pay the risk of losing interest and have to gamble.
In fact, local traditional banks also provide margin financing for individual new stocks, and interest rates are more favorable than brokerages.
Taking Kuaishou as an example, HSBC has increased the IPO margin subscription limit of up to 100 million yuan to each customer, the subscription amount is higher than 3 million yuan, and the annual interest rate is as low as 0.8%; the annual interest rate of 3 million yuan or less is 1%.
Based on this calculation, a margin loan of 100 million yuan, calculated on the basis of 2.98% lent by a brokerage firm, has a 7-day interest of 57,000 yuan; if calculated at the 0.8% margin rate provided by the bank, the 7-day interest rate is only 15,342 yuan; the difference between the two More than 40,000 yuan.
However, investors should note that unlike some brokers, new shares subscribed by banks cannot be traded on the dark market.
This means that when the dark market price reaches a certain high, customers who have subscribed by the bank cannot sell, and can only start trading after the first listing the next day.
Recently, traditional banks provide margin financing subscription services for individual new stocks. Among them, HSBC provides discounts with an annual interest rate as low as 0.8% for Kuaishou technology margin subscription.
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One-handed margin trading? Hot IPOs, "first-hand party" dominates
Honghui Asset Management Director and Investment Strategy Director Lin Jiaqi pointed out that the hotter the new stocks, the more the "first-hand party" prevails. He also believes that the "head hammer fly" can only be divided into one or two hands. Addiction."
If investors want to subscribe for new shares through margin, Lin Jiaqi believes that traditional banks have recently attracted customers to subscribe for new shares at relatively favorable interest rates, so he believes that large subscribers can choose bank services to reduce interest costs.
Ye Guobang, a strategist at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong), pointed out that brokerages and banks have different customer sources. Although banks offer more favorable interest rates, the services provided by banks and brokers are different. Because banks have lower financing rates, customers will be swarming.
After Razer went public in 2017, it has fallen short of its offer price in a short period of time, and as a result, it has not recovered its lost ground.
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The IPO boom is not over, learn from Razer Yixin to judge that the boom is over
Regarding whether millions of people draw new shares will become the new normal, Lin Jiaqi believes that whether this boom can continue depends very much on the performance of the new stock market.
He described the situation as "chickens and eggs". When investors make a profit after subscribing to Kuaishou, they will transfer their subscription to Nuohui Health; if they make a profit from Nuohui Health, they will subscribe for the next new stock until the emergence of "diving", The situation of driving high and low.
Past experience is that after Zhongan Online (6060) and China Reading Group (0772) went public, Razer (1337) and Yixin (2858) that followed were unable to speculate. This is the end of a new stock boom.
Ye Guobang believes that subscription by millions of people may not become the new normal. The most important thing depends on the quality of the new shares listed and the scarcity of its business. Investors do not blindly subscribe for new shares.
However, he believes that the IPO boom will not end too soon, and there will be more large, well-known and scarce companies listed in Hong Kong in the future.
Baidu Chuan has launched a plan to return to Hong Kong for listing.
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"Second listing" is difficult to double or double Lin Jiaqi: no need to be too aggressive
Regarding the return of more Chinese concept stocks to the secondary listing in Hong Kong in the future, Lin Jiaqi suggested that investors should not be too aggressive in subscribing. New stocks that have always been secondary listed are already "available and marketable" on the U.S. exchanges, and it is impossible for them to surge by one day like ordinary new stocks. double.
He believes that most of the new stock subscriptions for the return of China Concept Stocks are to earn the difference between the prospectus and the listing price. If investors have a US stock account, they can even directly trade the listed shares without waiting for the second-listed new stock subscription.
Ye Guobang pointed out that the return of Chinese concept stocks depends on the size and popularity of the stock. If there is a certain discount in its pricing, investors may also wish to subscribe for the shares of the secondary listing to earn the difference after listing.
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