Political situation
Written by: Wen Weiguang
2021-02-23 07:00
Last update date: 2021-02-23 07:00
Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, who is also the executive deputy head of the Central Hong Kong and Macao Work Coordination Group, delivered an important speech at the seminar of the National Hong Kong and Macao Research Association yesterday (22), setting the tone for the principle of "patriots ruling Hong Kong". Beijing will take advantage The nationwide "two sessions" will drastically reform Hong Kong's electoral system, which is ready to come out.
There is still one week before the opening of the "Two Sessions". There is no authoritative channel to say how Beijing will reform the Hong Kong electoral system. At present, the political circle can only grasp some plans that the central government is studying or studying, and thus speculate that there will eventually be even a possible result. There are at least five or six "surgery" schemes. In addition to the possibility of adding an authority to examine whether candidates meet the "Patriot" standard, it will also significantly change the functional constituencies of the Legislative Council, including adding several new constituencies. Seats to replace the five seats of the two-part "Super District Council" in the district councils to be abolished.
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The source pointed out that the central government is likely to refer to the form of the "Hong Kong National Security Law" enacted last year, starting with the plenary meeting of the National People's Congress in the "Two Sessions" next month to make relevant decisions and initiate procedures on Hong Kong's implementation of "patriots ruling Hong Kong." Annexes I and II of the Basic Law provide explanations or "decisions", and finally authorize the National People's Congress Standing Committee to be held every bimonthly to set specific mechanisms and plans.
Annex I of the Basic Law is "Methods for the Selection of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region", and Annex II "Methods for the Selection and Voting Procedure of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region".
In other words, to implement "patriots ruling Hong Kong," the reform of Hong Kong's electoral system will involve the election of the Legislative Council and the Election Committee, and even the District Council and Chief Executive.
At least five plans have been circulating in the political circle, the contents of which are as follows:
1. Establish an authoritative organization to "assess" whether candidates meet the "Patriot" standard
According to the news, Beijing is likely to add an additional "gate" to the current elections, that is, to establish an authoritative body to "assess" whether candidates meet the "Patriot" standards. Those who do not meet the criteria will not even have the chance to "enter the gate" to participate in the election. , And the scope is very wide, covering all levels of elections, including the election committee responsible for the election of the chief executive, the two major direct election battlefields, the Legislative Council and the district council, and even the chief executive election.
It is rumored that one of the research proposals is to reorganize the current Electoral Management Committee (EAC), such as adding a large number of politically appointed members to check the nomination qualifications for elections at all levels.
It is still unknown whether the current practice of the Returning Officer to verify nomination will continue.
According to the news, the feature of the Pan plan is that it is "unity", is applicable to elections at all levels, and can ensure that "non-patriots" cannot participate in elections, and that it is the easiest to implement, so it is a relatively high chance plan.
The EAC may usher in a reorganization.
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2. Reorganization of the electoral committee, reduction of district council electoral committees, additional political seats, and expansion of the electorate structure
Another plan that has been studied is to abolish district board seats in some electoral committees.
Currently, among the fourth sector of the Election Committee, there are 117 seats from the "Hong Kong and Kowloon District Councils" and the "New Territories District Councils".
Since the current district councils are dominated by the democrats, the electoral committee subsectors are elected by unanimous votes. Therefore, under the current system, 117 seats are highly likely to fall into the hands of the democrats.
According to the news, Beijing intends to reduce the number of seats for district councils in the election committee. The rationale is that the district councils are advisory organizations and should not account for such a large proportion of seats.
As one trades down, the seats in the CPPCC group may increase.
The CPPCC group currently occupies 51 seats in the Election Committee, and it is rumored that an additional 100 seats may be added, so that the CPPCC appointed by the central government will greatly increase its influence in the Election Committee.
In addition, the voter structure of some professional groups may be expanded, changing the voter structure in a disguised form, making it more difficult for the democrats to continue to dominate. For example, the aforementioned "Hong Kong and Kowloon District Councils" and "New Territories District Councils" may "open the gate". Let more regional associations qualify to vote and inject "iron votes" into the establishment.
3. The Legislative Council will demolish districts and change to the dual-seat single-vote system?
At present, there are 5 geographical constituencies in the Legislative Council. The proportional representation system is adopted. The constituency is large and there are many seats. It is easy for radical political groups to be elected to the bureau with a small number of votes. Democrats are elected under the "June 4 Golden Ratio". They have won more votes, so since the reunification, the democrats have been directly elected in the region, and the overall number of elected members is more than that of the establishment.
Therefore, there are opinions that the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress can instruct the SAR government to change the direct election model, split the legislative council constituency into 18 or 20 districts, etc., and elect by the "dual-seat single-vote system". In this case, the democrats have the largest number in each district. Only one seat can be taken, that is, only half of the seats can be won in direct elections.
For the pan-people who have always won more than half of the seats in direct elections in the five districts, seats have been reduced in disguise.
Moreover, the democrats have become "fragmented" in recent years, and it is difficult to coordinate. If there are three or four people running for election in one district, the source of votes will be spread and both seats in certain districts will lose at any time.
However, the changes in the relevant plans are too large and technically complex. They may not be implemented in time for September this year, and they will affect the interests of the fine parties within the establishment. I believe Beijing will adopt a cautious attitude.
As for the rumor that Beijing Research will divide the five directly elected districts into eight or nine districts, each district has three to five seats.
Some protagonists are skeptical, saying that this kind of reform can only prevent radical political groups from being elected, but it has allowed the democrats to gain more seats every minute.
This is because with the approximate "June 4 ratio" between the democrats and the establishment, if there are three or five seats in a district, the chances of the pan-democrats getting a majority are greater than the establishment.
The democrats won the district council elections in 2019, shaking up the political landscape.
However, once the relevant reforms are implemented, the influence of the democrats may be greatly reduced.
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4. The functional constituency is "largely seated", reducing the super-district seats
The Legislative Council has become a "severe disaster area." Compared with the change of geographical selection, there is a greater chance that functional constituencies will change.
According to the current system, the Legislative Council District Council (second) functional constituency (commonly known as the Super District Council) has five seats elected by voters who do not have the right to vote in other functional constituencies and adopts a proportional representation system.
Since the democrats have generally won more votes, the democrats have won three of them in the past two Legislative Council elections.
According to the news, Beijing has a great chance to cancel the super-district seats, and the original seats may be filled by new functional constituencies. It also said that these new territories seats will be formed through disguised negotiation, but the details are not clear.
5. District Councils (1) Voters join a large number of community service persons
At present, the district board (first) sector, which is formed by the mutual election of district board members, may also undergo structural changes.
According to sources, Beijing is considering changing the way voters in this sector are formed by adding a group of "community servicers," which are expected to be members of associations in various regions.
Regional associations tend to be based on the pro-organizational system. Such a reform of the law can ensure a greater chance that seats will fall into the hands of the establishment.
It is worth noting that the above options are not mutually exclusive. Beijing may eventually choose one or two options among them, or all of them may adopt a multi-pronged approach, which will bring about earth-shaking changes to the Hong Kong election system.
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