The possibility of a draw and a fifth choice is quite realistic • In that case, we may reach the magic date when the rotation will be activated • Will the joke get skin and tendons?
• Interpretation
A scenario that was unfounded - and made possible
Photo:
Oren Ben Hakon
Until a month ago this was a joke.
Bnei Gantz's party toyed with the idea that he would become prime minister this autumn, by virtue of the unique Basic Law enacted by the Knesset when the national unity government was formed.
The same law, which completely distorted the order of government in Israel, established the identity of the prime minister as early as May 2020, starting on November 21.
So much so that Benny Ganz - once perceived as a bit bizarre at the time - even swore allegiance to the same status as the future prime minister.
It was further stipulated that only a majority of 70 MKs would be able to change the law.
Time passed.
The government faltered.
Ganz fell in the polls and Israel ran in the fourth election.
When the election campaign began with the thunderous retirement of Gideon Saar, with the surprising split between Bennett and Smutrich and with the Labor Party sinking below the blocking percentage, it seemed that chaos and dust would eventually form a stable government for Israel.
But, just a month before the polls open, the devilish draw is about to paralyze the system again.
According to most polls and estimates, neither Netanyahu nor Lapid will be able to form a government after the election.
Netanyahu may reach 60 seats, which is clearly not enough.
Lapid can only have a government with the ultra-Orthodox, but the chance that Deri or Gafni will join it is close to zero.
Ganz: "I never believed Netanyahu - he chose the deceptive path" // Archive photo
"This will be a government full of internal contradictions, whose chances of survival are very low," analyzes a senior official in one of the ultra-Orthodox parties.
"Why should Gafni and Deri enter it, if after a few months it falls apart and they pay a heavy electoral price for their alleged betrayal of Netanyahu ?!"
He asks rhetorically.
Both Saar and Bennett on their 15-13 seats will find it very difficult to form a government.
Even if they form a bloc, it is hard to believe that Lapid will give them the premiere, but even the very collaboration with Merav Michaeli & Co. will not be easy for them.
When the political stalemate is the most likely result of the fourth election, there is every reason to think that Israel will run after them in the fifth election.
These will be held, whether learning from past experience, in August or September.
The chances of a government being formed quickly in any case are low, which brings us pretty quickly to the magic date - November 2021.
Ganz is as close to Balfour as Lapid
This month, as stated, the Knesset has already determined in a Basic Law who should enter the position of Prime Minister.
This is the blue-and-white chairman, the current Minister of Defense, Justice, Welfare, Science and the Media, Lt. Col. Bnei Gantz.
At the same time, it should be noted that even he himself has recently ceased to use the title of alternate prime minister.
This scenario, which until recently was considered unfounded, obscures two dangers for Ganz.
One is the possibility that he will not pass the blocking percentage in the upcoming elections.
In such a case, jurists disagree on whether he can serve as prime minister when he is not a Knesset member.
In this respect, the call for Gantz to retire published this morning by 150 officers in the Res. Is an act of political folly.
Ganz is close to Balfour no less - and perhaps more - Meir Lapid.
The second problem will be if the opposition led by Lapid joins Netanyahu to repeal the Basic Law, which makes Gantz king in eight months.
If and when we get to the moment, it will be a particularly cruel dilemma for Torch and in general for the camp just not Bibi.
So to sum it up, assuming the election ends in a draw again, assuming Gantz remains a Member of Knesset, and assuming Lapid does not restrain him - and the three assumptions seem reasonable at the moment - the possibility that the joke will come to naught is not at all unfounded.
There is a good chance that Bnei Gantz will become prime minister in the autumn.
How will he run the country without a majority in the Knesset?
Well, in this matter he will be able to consult a lot with the current tenant in Balfour.
