Bill Gates: "Mexico can have a very bright future without oil because its main resource is its people" | CNN

Bill Gates: The Sea Will Sweep Miami 2:10

(CNN Spanish) -

Bill Gates is a world figure because he is one of the pioneers of personal computers.

One of the richest men in the world, one of the greatest philanthropists in the world.

And he is a figure of the moment because he is at the center of the fight against the coronavirus pandemic and climate change worldwide.

According to the latest Forbes magazine wealth ranking, Bill Gates is worth $ 111 billion.

That is more than the economy of several Latin American countries put together.

But the most interesting thing is that, unlike many other tycoons, Gates has pledged to donate most of his fortune to charity.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has already donated about $ 54.8 billion to philanthropic causes since 1994, according to data from the specialized magazine Chronicle of Philatropy.

In recent years, the Gates Foundation has been dedicated primarily to helping cure diseases in the world's poorest countries and trying to prevent epidemics.

Back in 2015, Gates made a talk on the TED platform titled "We are not prepared for the next pandemic."

And sadly he was right.

Now, according to his own calculations, he has donated more than $ 1 billion in vaccines and health equipment to help fight the pandemic, mainly in the poorest countries.

And also as early as 2010, Gates had done another TED talk warning about the threat of climate change.

He has now just written a book entitled "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster" with the subtitle "The Solutions We Already Have and the Advances We Still Need."

The book says that current plans to reduce climate change, even if the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gases is met, will not be enough to prevent a catastrophe.

According to Gates, you have to bet much more on alternative energy and, above all, on innovation.

He proposes reducing greenhouse gases to zero, because even the most ambitious plans to reduce these emissions now hardly serve, he says, to postpone the problem.

To explain why current global agreements to reduce emissions of these gases are not enough, Gates uses the example of a bathtub: a bathtub that is being filled with water.

We can reduce the flow of water from the tap, but if the water keeps coming out, sooner or later the bathtub will fill up and the water will overflow.

In the interview we asked him about his warnings about climate change, about whether Mexico and other oil-producing countries are going to benefit or hurt if they continue to invest in oil and about how he sees the future of Latin America.

Also, I asked him about the pandemic, of course.

How long will it take for vaccines to reach Latin America en masse?

And I also asked him about the conspiracy theories about him, according to which he is supposedly putting chips in the vaccines so he can know where people are or to keep track of people.

I asked him where this nonsense comes from and who is spreading it.

I tell you that the Gates press office gave me the interview for 12:45 noon and at 12:45 point zero zero zero, more punctual impossible, Bill Gates appeared on the screen and sat down in the chair.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Mr. Gates, thank you very much for being with us.

Before we talk about the coronavirus vaccine pandemic, let's talk about your new book, "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster."

Since you wrote much of that book, things have happened: We have a new president of the United States.

And one of the first things President Biden did was to reintegrate the United States into the Paris Treaty on climate change.

So the question: is that enough to avoid a climate disaster?

Or at least after that decision by the US government, are we at least on the way to solving this problem?

Bill Gates:

Well, the Paris Agreement is a necessary element for countries to come together and commit to each other to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But that is by no means enough.

Now, we recognize that doing things in a sustainable or environmentally friendly way is much more expensive.

So we need to innovate so that the costs of sustainable cement or sustainable steel are almost the same as the steel and cement we make today.

As long as the cost of sustainable options remains much higher, we will not be able to convince middle-income countries like India to opt for sustainable alternatives, because they must first think about providing housing, air conditioning and other basic needs to their citizens.

Furthermore, they have not been the main causes of the environmental problem that we have in the world.

So my book says that it is truly essential that we find innovative solutions to reduce the additional cost of doing things sustainably by 95 percent.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Before going into more detail, let me ask you, how did you become interested in the topic of climate change?

Because I know that you have followed this for decades, but I read that you got into the subject more deeply in 2015, after a harsh campaign was launched that criticized you for your investments in fossil fuels and that this motivated you to be more active on the subject.

Was it like this or how was that?

Bill Gates:

Yes, it all started when I began to travel frequently to Africa after 2000, to oversee the work of the Gates Foundation, which focuses primarily on health issues.

And what I saw there is that there was practically no electricity and you know, we want their economies to develop.

And so I thought I should learn about how to help generate that progress and how these concerns about climate change could limit that progress.

And I was lucky enough to be able to meet with several experts and by 2010 we already knew that climate change represented a major problem.

I have two TED talks in which I try to invite the world to avoid the big problems that are coming.

One is the 2010 TED talk in which I talk about climate change and the other much more famous, literally entitled "We are not ready for the next pandemic."

These are issues in which I would like governments to invest more to avoid the economic and health damage caused by these two threats.

And know?

I'm happy about the progress that has been made on climate change, because I think people are starting to pay more attention to it.

Miami's beaches "will disappear completely," says Gates

Andrés Oppenheimer: You say in the book that if we do nothing and I quote verbatim "climate change will continue to worsen and its impact on humanity will surely be catastrophic."

Specifically, how catastrophic would climate change be if we don't do anything drastic now?

Bill Gates:

Yes, as time progresses in this century, the effects on deaths and stability will be far worse than what we had with the pandemic at its worst.

Unfortunately, the people who will suffer the worst consequences are almost entirely the people in poor countries where they will not be able to work outdoors due to high temperatures and will not have crops for several years, so they will have problems of malnutrition and famine.

Developing countries will become much less stable, so these peoples, these countries that were the least to blame for the damage to the environment in the world, will bear the brunt.

Andrés Oppenheimer: You say it would be worse than the coronavirus pandemic, but how much worse?

Because you use the word "catastrophe," which is a strong, very strong word.

What do you mean when you talk about catastrophe?

Can you give us a concrete idea of ​​how catastrophic it would be, what would happen?

Bill Gates:

Well, there will be parts of the planet that will become basically uninhabitable, like the area of ​​Ecuador, where many people live today.

There will be places near the oceans where rising sea levels will completely wipe out, like Miami, for example, that will look very different than it does today.

Sadly, those beaches will disappear completely because they have a limestone base and you can't just build levees like in Amsterdam to prevent the advance of the water.

We will also have forest fires.

Many natural ecosystems are going to disappear permanently, such as coral reefs.

So we are talking about something very broad, but it is the poorest who will not be able to harvest enough food and will then try to emigrate and starve.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Well, since you brought up Miami, I am in Miami and I am speaking to you from Miami.

How long are we going to be flooded here in Miami if we don't do something?

And what should be done?

Bill Gates:

It happens gradually, as you know, but it gets worse year after year.

You know it being in Miami: you have periods in which the tide rises when certain weather conditions occur and each year the sea level will rise more and more, always a little higher.

And at the end of the century we will reach very, very dramatic levels.

I love the beaches of Miami.

It's so beautiful and there's so much energy in all kinds of people there that I can't help but think: Wow, this is all going to go away!

It is not at the top of the list of the most terrible things we will see because of climate change.

But it is something that we can all feel, it is something that is close to us.

Andrés Oppenheimer: What would have happened if former President Trump had won the elections or had managed to reverse the triumph of President Biden as he wanted and the United States had not returned to the Paris Treaty on climate change?

Bill Gates:

The role of the United States on climate change issues is very, very important.

During the Donald Trump administration, research and development efforts on climate issues were reduced.

Now, with President Joe Biden, I expect that research and development budget on climate change issues will be dramatically increased.

Get away from fossil fuels

Andrés Oppenheimer: Let's talk a bit about the solutions.

Because you say in the book that renewable energy, such as wind energy or solar energy, can help solve the problem, but that they are not going to be enough.

So what should be done?

Bill Gates:

Well, the first thing we have to do is raise awareness that greenhouse gas emissions come from different activities.

Many people know that cars are part of the problem and that generating electricity is also part of the problem.

But those two activities together do not add up to a third of the total problem.

We also have to take into consideration other industrial activities, such as the production of steel and cement.

And when it comes to transportation, we have airplanes and ships that represent a much, much more difficult problem to solve.

But the amount of research and work that needs to be done on the most difficult issues to solve has been very, very low.

You need to develop a real plan and generate a really high interest in the goal of reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions.

And my book aims to say: okay, let's work on a comprehensive plan that includes the most difficult areas to solve.

Andrés Oppenheimer: But what would happen then with oil-producing countries like Venezuela, Colombia or even Mexico?

What will happen to oil-producing countries around the world if we drastically reduce the use of oil and fossil fuels?

Because Mexico, for example, is investing right now in oil, in refineries.

Does that make sense?

Bill Gates:

Well, there are still 30 years to go until 2050 and we still depend on gasoline to get people to work.

You know, to move the economy.

How fast can we reduce that gas mileage?

We are not sure, but yes, countries will have to gradually move away from the expectation of making a lot of money selling oil or natural gas.

And that will be a challenge for the environment, for Russia, for Nigeria, for Mexico.

In fact, Venezuela is not actually exporting much oil today.

But you know, 30 years hopefully, is long enough to transfer those jobs to other areas and that could generate an unexpected geological benefit in new jobs, because people will have to adapt.

"The educational system in Mexico is very weak"

Andrés Oppenheimer: What advice would you give to the president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, if he were facing him at this time?

What would you tell him to do so that Mexico grows more and better?

Bill Gates:

Well, undoubtedly the educational system is the first key to developing a country or the intelligence of its people.

Mexico has places like the Instituto Tecnológico de Monterrey, where world-class engineers are trained.

But speaking more generally, the educational system in Mexico is very weak, for example, in terms of the accountability of teachers in relation to the economic level of Mexico.

And having a good educational system is much more important than getting oil out of the ground.

After all, a good educational system allows you to have informed citizens, with full lives.

Education represents more than money.

So Mexico can have a very bright future without oil, because its main resource is its people.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Regardless of what governments and countries do, what can or what should we citizens do to avoid the climate disaster you are talking about?

I ask her because, for example, I have a sister who takes her own shopping bag to the supermarket to avoid using the plastic bags they give her.

And well, every time the cashier wants to give you a plastic bag, he lectures you on how plastic bags pollute the oceans and kill fish.

Are these types of individual actions useful for you?

Or how should we citizens use our energies to try to change public policies like this, or by activating politically or by writing to our legislators?

What would we have to do as citizens?

Bill Gates:

Well, by far the most important thing is that you make your voice heard in order to influence government policy.

For example, if you want to care for and preserve the forests of the Amazon, I do not know if an individual can only do it.

The government is the one that has to take care of that problem.

If you want to change the way we generate electricity, the government is the one that has to take care of that.

Consumers, beyond speaking out with their voice and vote, can also make a difference.

Buy electric cars and eat artificial meat

Andrés Oppenheimer: How?

How can they make a difference?

Bill Gates:

You can buy an electric vehicle, even if you are sacrificing some performance.

You can buy artificial or supplemental meat or eat less meat.

These kinds of things are valuable and we see an increasing demand for electric vehicles.

That demand allows prices to fall.

And that additional cost that electric vehicles have, which are not yet a total substitute for traditional vehicles because they still have a very high cost, will eventually reach zero and levels with the costs of traditional vehicles in the next decade.

That's a category of greenhouse gas emissions that many see as a magic bullet that must be insisted upon until eventually everyone has an electric vehicle.

There are other categories that are very different, but the demand of consumers when they analyze the companies they buy from and require them to have good environmental practices about the manufacture of their products, that can gradually start to change some things and complement the great things what governments have to do.

Andrés Oppenheimer: In the book you mention the case of Denmark.

You say Denmark uses windmills to generate half of its electricity, but could that be done in the United States or in Latin America?

Is that feasible?

Bill Gates:

A fundamental part of power generation can shift to these types of renewable alternatives.

But as that percentage increases, the fact that you may have long periods of time when the wind is not blowing or the sunlight decreases reduces the reliability of your electrical system.

And that has a definite impact when people depend on a heating system not to freeze to death from cold temperatures or when hospitals depend on not having their power cut off at any time: reliability is very important.

So if we are going to rely heavily on these sources, we need a breakthrough in energy storage capacity.

And if we cannot achieve that breakthrough, which is very difficult to achieve and we may not achieve, we will need to find environmentally friendly green energy sources that work at all times.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Like which ones?

Bill Gates:

Well, although it is something very controversial, we must continue to use very affordable and super safe alternatives to nuclear fusion.

But if we achieve that miraculous breakthrough in clean energy storage, we will not need the nuclear alternative.

But for now we must keep trying both ways and we are very, very far from having the energy storage capacity we need.

This is 20 times more difficult than achieving what has been achieved so far with electric vehicle batteries.

If things go well, Latin America could be vaccinated in six months, says Gates

Andrés Oppenheimer: Mr. Gates, let's talk a little about the pandemic.

His foundation has been dedicated to fighting this virus.

But what do you think of the fact that according to the World Health Organization, most of the world's vaccines are going to rich countries?

What do you think of the fact that the United States, Canada, the richest countries in Europe are receiving many more vaccines than developing countries?

Bill Gates:

Yes, the Gates Foundation is currently the lead entity that is trying to avoid this problem.

Unfortunately, the first two vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are very difficult to produce in large volumes.

They are really expensive and require special refrigeration.

The next three vaccines to gain high-quality regulatory approval are Astra Zeneca, Johnson and Johnson, and Novamax, and our foundation has spent more than $ 1 billion to combat this pandemic.

A good part of that spending is getting these big vaccine factories in India capable of producing these three vaccines.

We are already making the Astra Zeneca one in a Serum Institute of India factory and as soon as the other two are approved we will do the same.

As you know, South America needs vaccines.

South Africa needs vaccines.

That is our top priority.

And so we are hopeful that these new vaccines will help solve this problem in the next six months.

Andrés Oppenheimer: Well, speaking of the next six months, I was ahead of my next question.

Do you think that in Latin America most people will be vaccinated in the next six months?

Bill Gates:

If things go well with the Astra Zeneca, Johnson and Johnson and Novamax vaccines I think so.

I think the inequality will be a lag of six months.

If things do not go well with these vaccines, we could be talking about a delay of 9 to 12 months.

The United States did not contribute any money to this international response.

Until the recent Economic Stimulus Law.

That's why we urge Congress to finally get involved and help with this global effort.

And now the Biden administration has been very active in saying no, that it is not just about taking care of America's health.

The previous administration said that before exporting a single vaccine, you had to make sure that all Americans were vaccinated.

The latter is something with which I do not agree.

Conspiracy theories

Andrés Oppenheimer: Well that's a very easy way to put it, Mr. Gates, you were saying that the Gates Foundation has donated more than 1 billion dollars to help fight this pandemic and yet social media in Latin America and here in America, you are being demonized.

There are crazy conspiracy theories in the networks saying that you are putting chips into people's heads with vaccines and other such ridiculous.

But where do these conspiracy theories come from?

Who or who is spreading them and why?

Bill Gates:

Yes, the truth is that I am very surprised by the volume of these conspiracy theories that, as you say, in many cases focus on me or on Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases. .

So hey, I think it's a bit ironic that when you're trying to donate money and help save lives, conspiracy theories say that you're trying to make more money and you're currently trying to reduce the world's population.

And you know, during a pandemic as tough as this, people may come up with simplistic explanations and try to conclude that there are dark forces behind it all.

Conspiracy theories seem to be part of all this and of course, they are augmented by the ability to spread digitally.

I am hopeful that as people see that vaccines are becoming more available and death rates go down, the truth will come out and become widely accepted.

Bill Gates talks about conspiracy theories attacking him on social media 1:39

Andrés Oppenheimer: And otherwise?

Bill Gates:

Otherwise, we will not get so many people who want to wear face masks or get vaccinations, which are two vital decisions in order to end this pandemic.

"I still believe in the potential" of Latin American countries

Andrés Oppenheimer: Let's talk about Latin America.

What do you think are the main pending subjects in Latin America?

Because many of us have been asking the question for years: why have Asians been so much more successful than Latin Americans in growing their economies and lifting people out of poverty?

Bill Gates:

Latin America has incredible potential and the region has had decades in which it has done very well and decades in which it has not done well.

As you know, politics is always very complicated and if you have a corrupt political party, you will almost always end up having the policies of the opposite party, even when they are not the best or the best thought out, then corruption ends up being more important than the idea. to choose the best candidates and the best policies.

So I don't have a magic bullet for that.

I have invested a lot in Mexico and Brazil and even though we have not done very well so far, I still believe in these countries and in the potential they have.

Andrés Oppenheimer So what does it take?

Bill Gates

Picking the right politicians could help speed things up.

The key lies in things like how you use markets, how you allow private sector activity, how you manage the health sector, education, and the judicial system.

There are places like Chile, which in many ways have been a model.

Lately they have rethought some of their policies in terms of fairness and I hope it works out for them, but it is still the model to follow in many respects and the trend there is looking very positive.

"The key is to focus on education"

Andrés Oppenheimer Mr. Gates, you have spoken many times over the years about happiness.

He has said many times that he is happy and that the key to happiness is family ties and having a sense of purpose in life.

But hey, a lot of people say clearly, it's easy, it's very easy for Bill Gates to say that he's happy because he has billions of dollars and he's one of the richest men in the world.

That is not the case for many others.

What advice would you give to the people who are seeing us in Latin America to be happier?

Bill Gates

Well certainly being in good health and being comfortable with your health come first, which has been very difficult during the pandemic.

As you know, I've been extremely lucky.

I grew up having a first-rate education, I developed a love for reading, I was able to educate myself surrounded by brilliant people, I was able to work on all kinds of interesting projects and programs, I had a great career at Microsoft, which was super fun and now with the job of the Foundation we have made great progress in saving the lives of many children.

So if you find something that you love to do, it may also be very rewarding in terms of what you can learn, who you work with, and even financially rewarding.

The key for me is to focus on education, to get children involved in a good education at an early age and to develop the self-confidence they need.

Know?

I believe that is even more important than achieving financial success.

Bill Gates Well, let's talk about that for a second.

What advice would you give to Latin American countries, not only the people, to the countries to increase well-being? You mentioned education, but many young people say: okay, but yes, education is important, but in my country many people he studies and then can't get a good job.

What else is needed?

Bill Gates

Well, if you can get a good education, there will always be a good job available.

I mean, if you're a vet or doctor or systems engineer with high-quality training, the demand for those jobs exceeds the number of people who can do them.

Of course, that is something that is not true for everyone.

In the service economy there is some uncertainty about exactly what skills will be of value in the future.

And I always go back to the point we talked about before we had good education systems, where you hold teachers to the highest standards.

It is also vital to have good health systems which, in South America, as you know, are not perfect, but there are many positive aspects.

Bill gates