Doubt with the statesmen in Washington see the threat from Tehran face to face as Jerusalem • This is not a reason to give up • Israel has a great time and space of influence • Interpretation
President Biden and Iranian leader Khamenei // Photo: API, AP
On the eve of the resumption of talks between the United States and the superpowers and Iran on a return to the nuclear agreement, Israel finds itself in a particularly problematic situation.
The problem does not begin with the squeaky relationship with the Biden administration, but ends with them.
It began at home: in the sharp controversy at the political level and at the senior professional level over the question of what strategy is desired for Israel at this time.
The debate that took place yesterday on Prime Minister Netanyahu flooded this issue with full force.
The head of the National Security Staff, Meir Ben Shabbat, presented in the discussion a very contrasting approach to the Americans, which was defined by a senior source as "particularly apocalyptic and extreme."
Other senior officials present at the hearing, led by Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, opposed this approach, arguing that Israel should refrain from public and open confrontation with the Americans at this time, and should act against the new administration in discreet ways. The Atomic Energy Committee Zeev Snir supported a similar position, as did Defense Ministry Director General Amir Eshel and Defense Ministry Chief of Staff Zohar Felti, who also participated in the discussion.
This debate among the professionals largely reflects a similar debate at the political level.
The prime minister is very skeptical about the ability to reach agreements with the Americans that will improve the original agreement, while Defense Minister and Foreign Minister Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi believe it is necessary to try and talk to the administration, as well as the other powers involved, including Germany, France and Britain.
The discussion was agreed on at the operational level (the National Security Council will coordinate the professional forum dealing with Iran at the political level, and the Mossad and the IDF will continue to gather intelligence and prepare the military option), but not at the strategic level: even at its conclusion, Israel did not define its desired achievement. She intends to insist.
The only agreement was that we should now work with the administration in Washington, if only to make it clear that every effort had been made on the subject.
The squeaks on the Israeli side - which intensify against the background of the elections and the fierce rivalry between Netanyahu and Gantz and Ashkenazi - will make it very difficult for Israel to conduct an effective campaign against the administration in Washington, which still seems to have very little empathy for Israel.
While the Americans have pledged to keep Iran out of the nucleus, their demonstrative eagerness to return to the original agreement is very disturbing, given the many holes in it.
Even the hints that sound from Washington as if these holes will be addressed later sound particularly naive: once the agreement is renewed and sanctions lifted, Iran will have no reason to agree to any concession.
In discreet talks that have taken place in recent weeks, mainly between the two countries' security institutions, Israel has flooded the United States with several issues that change "will make the evil agreement a reasonable plus," as the senior official puts it. At the top of the list is the expiration date ("sunset clause"). Tightening control over nuclear activity, restricting the development and production of missiles, and restricting the Iranian establishment in the Middle East and Yemen.
As things stand now, it is doubtful whether the Americans see things face to face with Israel.
It's annoying, but it's not a reason to give up.
The fat lady has not yet sung, and until that happens - Israel has time and space to influence.
To do this, she must begin to sort things out at home and formulate a clear strategy for herself.