Why are infections decreasing in the US?
12:45
(CNN Spanish) -
Global coronavirus infections fell 11% in the week before February 21.
It is the sixth consecutive week that covid-19 cases have fallen.
This according to data from the World Health Organization.
Also, according to the WHO there is a 20% drop in deaths this week.
Many countries in Latin America and the world are seeing this trend.
Vaccines have not yet reached a critical mass sufficient to stop infections, the cases of new variants continue to increase, we are nowhere near the level of confinement or restrictions of March last year.
So why are covid-19 cases falling in the world?
There are several possible explanations.
The hope of the vaccine
Although for some, especially in developing countries, the vaccine seems far away, it is still a promise.
"People become more aware because they are waiting because they do not want to die before the vaccine arrives, knowing that it is something that can save them," explains Dr. Antonio Quispe, a Peruvian epidemiologist, who affirms that in view of the prospect after being able to get vaccinated in a few months, people adopt more careful behaviors.
However, there are experts who claim that there may be a relaxation effect from the good news that more and more vaccines are approved and available.
«That the cases decrease is good news, but we must make a call not to relax, because the effect of that is obviously that the cases rise again.
People go out into the street, they neglect themselves.
And the key is to maintain self-care, "says Dr. Carlos Álvarez, a Colombian infectious disease doctor.
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Covid cases are down after a very dark time
The season after the end of the year festivities was critical in terms of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
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"Remember that we saw a large increase in cases and deaths after each of the end of the year holidays, and those increases are now decreasing," Dr. Mark H. Ebell, professor of Epidemiology at the College, explains to CNN en Español of Public Health at the University of Georgia.
"But that means things only look a little better compared to when they were really, really bad."
Dr. Ebell adds that despite the decline in cases, the daily infection rate in the US and the world remains very high.
According to the WHO, the US contributes the highest number of new cases of coronavirus, followed by India, Brazil, Russia, the United Kingdom and France.
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"My most important message is that this is not the time to start a victory lap, we have work today to stay safe until everyone is vaccinated," explains the doctor.
It is a warning that we have frequently heard from health authorities: the vaccine means that the virus has disappeared, it is just the beginning of a long battle towards the end.
America's leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Antony Fauci, says herd immunity could be achieved only when 70 to 85% of Americans are vaccinated, and has also warned that the vaccines will be available to the public. general only from May or June.
In Latin American countries, where they receive the doses of the vaccines by drop, estimates are made that the general population would be vaccinated by 2024.
There is still a long way to go.
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It's science, stupid!
To paraphrase the phrase coined by the campaign of former President Bill Clinton: infections are going down because we are listening to science.
"There is a change in the behavior of people and people because perhaps they are taking better care of themselves after seeing in all the countries that there was an increase in cases and many deaths as well," explains Dr. Felipe Lobelo, director of Exercise is Medicine Global Research and Collaboration Center at Emory University in Atlanta, USA.
“People have felt the blow,” Dr. Quispe agrees, “and this is generated in all Latin American countries.
It is no longer like someone dies two kilometers to the other distance, no, your neighbor dies, your neighbor.
People have started to control their risk.
In other words, people have started to follow the recommendations.
Wearing masks, maintaining physical distance, washing hands, are the key measures to protect ourselves.
Likewise, in more than a year living with the virus, health systems have improved and have learned about home treatments, medicines to improve symptoms, and techniques to reduce hospitalization time for the most serious patients.
We have learned, albeit at a high price.
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"Although there are moles, there is more and more self-care in general, the rules that we have all worked on are being met," says Dr. Álvarez in Colombia.
It should be noted, Dr. Lobelo points out, that the drop in cases is also due to the cyclical patterns of infectious diseases.
«Cases are increasing 6 to 8 weeks and then they decrease the following four or five weeks.
That's it.
Let's say that this is the normal behavior of an infectious disease, epidemic outbreaks, ”he explains.
And just as we learned about self-care, governments learned that, although harming the economy, lockdowns and quarantines serve to control the waves.
The United Kingdom, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, France, Germany, Spain and more reinstated mobility restrictions at the beginning of this year, following the scandalous numbers of cases and infections in December.
The United States is also on this list: with the change of government, the guidelines also changed.
There was a call for Americans to wear a mask and since January a negative PCR or antigen test has been requested from travelers who want to reach the country.
Natural immunity could also be driving down covid cases
There is another hypothesis that experts consider: natural immunity may be greater than that corresponding to the reported cases.
Dr. Lobelo puts it like this:
“In the United States, it is estimated that of the nearly 30 million confirmed infected people, the actual number may be 4 times greater, that is, more than 100 million people who have actually had the infection, but who may not have been infected. detected.
So that already tells us about a significant percentage of the adult population 30 to 40 percent that may have undergone the infection and there are fewer susceptible people, "he says.
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Again, we are far from the so-called herd immunity, but adding this natural immunity (of which it is not yet known with certainty how long it can last) to people already vaccinated, as the numbers begin to look more encouraging.
What about the variants?
The UK variant has so far been detected in 101 countries, South Africa's in 51, and less prevalent ones such as Brazil or Japan have been detected in 29 countries.
Many of these variants are said to be more infectious, possibly resistant to vaccines, and possibly more deadly.
If they are more and more present, why do cases continue to decline?
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«If I steal a coin from you every day, you won't realize it, right?
But if I steal everything you have from one moment to the next, then you will realize that something is wrong.
So are the supercontagious variants.
If you interrupt the stream of these variants, you drop not just one case, but three or four.
The rise was super accelerated, and the fall also due to the infectious factor, ”says Dr. Quispe.
The trick, he explains, is to interrupt the transmission to block the advance of the new and old variants.
This prevents new cases and more dangerous mutations.
Some of the vaccines already in use around the world have reported that they can offer protection for different variants, and some experts we consulted believe that natural immunity to one strain of coronavirus could also help protect against serious diseases caused by other variants.
