The state elections in Baden-Württemberg will be a decisive day for the Greens and the CDU.
We explain the starting point and the unusual voting system.
Stuttgart - The Greens have been the
Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg
since 2012
.
It looks as if they can continue to be represented in the government when the
state parliament is
re-elected
in March
.
What happens after the election in Baden-Württemberg does not only determine the future in the state, but is of great importance with a view to the federal election in 2021.
At first Winfried Kretschmann ruled with the SPD, since 2016 the CDU has been the junior partner in the
state government
.
It is quite possible that the Greens will ultimately be able to choose with whom they
want to form
a
coalition
after the state elections in 2021
.
In this case, every decision can be a signal for federal politics.
The effects in the Bundestag election year are likely to go far beyond the state parliament.
Date of the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
The new state parliament of Baden-Württemberg will
be
elected
on March 14, 2021
.
The polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
The current
electoral period
for members of the state parliament ends on April 30, 2021.
Surveys before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
At the top, the
Greens
and the
CDU will
probably
decide
the election victory
among themselves.
The polls for the state elections in 2021 show a large lead over the other parties.
Nevertheless, some prognoses also give rise to explosive opportunities.
A green-red-red coalition seems possible if Die Linke crosses the five percent hurdle.
The left wing of the Greens, to whom
Winfried Kretschmann is
anything but close, would surely support such an alliance against a renewed coalition with the CDU.
The Insa election poll of February 13, which the
Bild
can collect, forecast the Greens with 31 percent ahead.
A gain of one percentage point compared to the Insa survey of the previous month.
At the beginning of February, Prime Minister Kretschmann's party was 34 percent, according to two other polling institutes.
According to Insa, the CDU had 30 percent on January 13, and a month later: 28 percent.
The trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg among the other parties (SPD, FDP, Linke, AfD) seems to be quite stable in recent weeks.
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
INSA / image |
02/13/2021 |
31 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
4th |
5 |
Research group elections |
5.2.2021 |
34 |
28 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
5 |
Infratest dimap |
4.02.2021 |
34 |
27 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
3 |
6th |
INSA / image |
01/13/2021 |
30th |
30th |
12th |
12th |
8th |
4th |
4th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
December 17, 2020 |
35 |
30th |
11 |
10 |
7th |
3 |
4th |
INSA / image |
11/19/2020 |
29 |
31 |
12th |
11 |
7th |
5 |
5 |
Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung |
October 15, 2020 |
34 |
29 |
11 |
11 |
6th |
4th |
5 |
INSA / image |
09/10/2020 |
28 |
31 |
12th |
12th |
7th |
5 |
5 |
2016 election results |
03/13/2016 |
30.3 |
27.0 |
15.1 |
12.7 |
8.3 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
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Spitzenkandidaten: Who can become Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg?
The new state parliament elects the prime minister with a simple majority.
The state parliament then has to confirm its government before the new team can take over government affairs.
According to the ongoing trend in the polls, two
top candidates *
have realistic chances of leading a coalition in the state
.
Winfried Kretschmann (Greens):
He has been Prime Minister since 2012 and his first choice was a little sensation.
Winfried Kretschmann became
Germany's first Green Prime Minister
- in a state that had been a
CDU stronghold
for decades
.
In the political spectrum of the Greens he is seen as a clear
real
who is far removed from the left wing of the party.
It is probably also because Kretschmann's popularity ratings are still high before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021.
Susanne Eisenmann (CDU):
In Winfried Kretschmann's current cabinet, Susanne Eisenmann is
Minister for Culture, Youth and Sport
.
If the CDU, the strongest party, joins a government coalition, it should become the new Prime Minister.
Today's top candidate joined the Junge Union at the age of 16.
Susanne Eisenmann later held various offices in Stuttgart's local politics and was finally
mayor of Stuttgart
from 2005 to 2016,
responsible for culture, youth and sport.
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Electoral system: No first vote and no second vote in the state election
The
state election in Baden-Württemberg
follows its own laws.
In contrast to the
electoral system known
from the Bundestag or other state parliaments, there is no subdivision into first vote and second vote.
Instead, there are 70 constituencies in the state, in which only one direct candidate is elected.
At the same time, each vote of a candidate counts as a vote for his party.
That is why there are also
MPs
in the state parliament who have not
won
an
electoral district
.
The fact that there are no lists that are otherwise elected by second votes makes things a little more complicated.
If a party has fewer directly elected MPs than it would be entitled to based on the total number of nationwide votes, other candidates move up for a party - those candidates who got the best results in their constituencies without winning the constituency.
In state elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg, therefore, no one has a guarantee of being
elected to
parliament
.
No matter how good a party's outcome is,
there are no safe places on the list
.
At the end of the day, the
overhang mandates are
offset.
The number of MPs was therefore last at 146.
These parties will run for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
The parties have until January 14, 2021
to submit
their
election proposals
for the constituencies.
The deadline is exactly two months before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg.
Only the subsequent examination of the election proposals provides information about which
parties
are applying to join the state parliament.
All parties that are currently not represented in the state parliament must collect signatures for their candidates in the respective constituency.
Those who cannot get enough supporters to sign will not be allowed to participate in the state election.
This obligation does not apply to the five parties in the current state parliament:
Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen, CDU, SPD, AfD and FDP
.
Ballot for the state election in 2021 is very simple
The electoral system may be quite complex when it comes to calculating mandates, but leads to a very clear
voting slip
for the voter
.
There is only the option of
ticking a party's nomination
with a single cross
.
The same applies to the voting slip for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: Any further marking that the voter makes can invalidate the vote!
Voting notification and postal voting in Baden-Württemberg
All voters should
receive
their voting notification
no later than
three weeks before the election
.
The voting notification shows in which polling station the voter can cast their vote in the state election in 2021.
The most important information about the
application for postal voting
in Baden-Württemberg can also be found in these documents.
In addition, the election notification is also confirmation that a citizen is on the
electoral
roll.
Anyone who has not received a notification for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg by February 21, but would like to vote, should therefore contact their municipality quickly.
Anyone who is registered with the new municipality in Baden-Württemberg by February 7, 2021 after moving should automatically receive their voting notification from there.
Wahl-O-Mat Baden-Württemberg starts in February
The Wahl-O-Mat Baden-Württemberg will take place again in 2021.
In the run-up to the state elections, voters can
answer a series of questions
in
Wahl-O-Mat
and find out how much they agree with the demands of the individual parties.
The popular election worker should be online from mid-February.
This date is named by the
Federal
Agency
for Civic Education
, which accompanies the development of Wahl-O-Maten in federal and state elections.
Super election day for the start of the super election year 2021
In addition to the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and the municipal elections in Hesse will also take place on the same day.
This
super election day
can set a direction for many subsequent elections.
During the year, the state parliaments in Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are also elected.
The Bundestag and local elections in Lower Saxony will follow in September.
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