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Surveys on the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021: will the Greens stay in power?

2021-02-24T12:58:34.625Z


The polls show a clear trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg. It remains to be seen who can head the state government.


The polls show a clear trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg.

It remains to be seen who can head the state government.

  • Surveys on the

    state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021

    suggest a continuation of the previous coalition.

  • Winfried Kretschmann does not automatically remain

    Prime Minister

    .

  • Other

    coalitions

    in the

    state parliament

    are possible but far less likely.

Update from February 24th, 1.30 p.m.:

On March 14th, a new state parliament will be elected in Baden-Württemberg.

Surveys provide forecasts for the possible outcome on election Sunday beforehand.

The Insa poll of February 13th currently sees the Greens in front with 31 percent, followed by the CDU (28 percent), SPD and AfD with 11 percent each, closely followed by the FDP (10 percent).

Other survey institutes are currently showing this trend.

The current polls for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021: Greens are ahead

The research group Wahlen and Infratest dimap sees the Greens at 34 percent - and thus estimate the gap between the Greens and the CDU greater than the current Insa survey.

The polls show a close race between the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg and the alternative for Germany.

The polls predict that the left will fail at the five percent clause.

Institute

date

Green

CDU

AfD

SPD

FDP

left

Others

INSA / image

02/13/2021

31

28

11

11

10

4th

5

Research group elections

5.2.2021

34

28

11

10

9

3

5

Infratest dimap

4.02.2021

34

27

10

11

9

3

6th

Initial report from January 29, 9:40 a.m .:

Stuttgart - The state government of

Baden-Württemberg

has been unique in Germany since 2011.

Winfried Kretschmann

is the only green man

in a federal state to be the prime minister.

As the father of the country, he has excellent popularity ratings.

According to the

forecasts

for the state election in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021,

an election victory for the Greens is

still not certain.

Who is ahead between the Greens and the CDU fluctuates from survey to survey.

On March 14th there should also be a close race between

AfD *

and

SPD *

.

According to the

polls

for the 2021 state elections,

both parties can become

the third strongest force in the state parliament.

Compared to the 2016 election, the AfD has so far been predicted to have greater losses than the SPD.

Entry into the state parliament appears to

be relatively safe

for the

FDP

and,

in turn, to be very insecure

for

Die Linke

.

Surveys on the state election 2021 in Baden-Württemberg

Institute

date

Green

CDU

AfD

SPD

FDP

left

Others

INSA / image

01/13/2021

30th

30th

12th

12th

8th

4th

4th

Infratest dimap / SWR

December 17, 2020

35

30th

11

10

7th

3

4th

INSA / image

11/19/2020

29

31

12th

11

7th

5

5

Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung

October 15, 2020

34

29

11

11

6th

4th

5

INSA / image

09/10/2020

28

31

12th

12th

7th

7th

5

State election

03/13/2016

30.3

27.0

15.1

12.7

8.3

2.9

3.7

Forecasts point to green-black in Baden-Württemberg again

The situation is both comfortable and complicated for the two governing parties.

A continuation of government work would

definitely be possible

for

Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *

and

CDU *

.

Together, the two parties are heading for

around 60 percent of the vote

- perhaps even significantly more.

Both sides emphasize that there is no automatic mechanism for a continuation of the coalition.

But

according to the surveys from Baden-Württemberg

, Winfried Kretschmann and the CDU top candidate

Susanne Eisenmann

are running out of other options.

Possible coalitions according to the polls for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021

For Kretschmann,

green-red-red

would come into

question.

Two things speak against the alliance with the SPD and Die Linke *.

First, the Left Party is a shaky candidate for entry into the state parliament.

The polls before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg showed them to be below the

5 percent threshold

.

Second, Kretschmann has always been considered the green of the more conservative party wing.

He would hardly be the man for a state government of this kind. In the year before the state elections, the FDP * was open to a coalition with the Greens.

But the liberals could just as easily orient themselves in the other direction.

The CDU can

hope

for

black-red-yellow

.

For this, Susanne Eisenmann needs an SPD that

wants to

take on the role of

the Union's

junior partner

.

That is also a very uncertain calculation, because the Social Democrats are looking to work together with the Greens.

Neither the CDU nor any of the other parties are seeking a coalition with the AfD.

If you don't yet know which parties your own wishes fit in, you can again ask Wahl-O-Mat about the state elections in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021.

As long as the forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 do not show a clear trend reversal, everything points to a continuation of

green-black

.

Above all, the question that remains open is who will get the most votes and who will ultimately be allowed to nominate the Prime Minister.

(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-02-24

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