Dry summers, winters with little snow - and heavy rain again and again.
The consequences of climate change can already be clearly felt in Bavaria.
And there is much to suggest that the situation will worsen significantly by 2100 - if no countermeasures are taken.
Munich
- It's a gloomy forecast: by 2100, the average temperature in Bavaria could rise by up to 4.8 degrees.
This is the result of the authors from the State Office for the Environment (LfU) of the Climate Report 2021 for Bavaria presented yesterday by Environment Minister Thorsten Glauber (FW).
This means that the previous forecasts from 2015 for Bavaria have been corrected upwards by 0.3 degrees.
The report also shows what specific consequences this can have for the people in the Free State if no climate protection measures are taken.
An overview.
■ Hot days and tropical nights
Between 1971 and 2000 there were an average of four so-called hot days per year in Bavaria.
Those are days when the thermometer showed more than 30 degrees.
In the foothills of the Alps, another 27 such hot days could be added by the year 2100, says Richard Fackler from the LfU.
In the Main region even 45. If the two-degree target from the Paris Climate Agreement were met, on the other hand, the number of hot days would still increase, but to a much lesser extent.
The situation is very similar with the so-called tropical nights, when the temperature does not drop below 20 degrees.
In the worst case scenario, they could occur up to 18 times a year in the future.
That would also have consequences for people's health, emphasizes Glauber.
“Such hot days and tropical nights are not so easy for the organism to cope with.
■ Drought and heavy rain
The researchers found no significant change in the average annual precipitation over the past few decades.
So the amount of precipitation seems to stay the same.
But the rain will fall differently in the future, predicts Tobias Fuchs from the German Weather Service.
“The rain will shift from summer to winter and spring.” That means: More drought and drought in summer, as has already been observed in previous years and which led to crop failures in agriculture.
But rainy winters, but with less snow.
"In addition, the heavy rain events will increase," says Fuchs.
Lots of rain in a short space of time on a small area such as in Simbach five years ago - that means new challenges for fire brigades and flood protection and the loss of valuable soil through erosion.
■ What to do, Mr. Glauber?
Climate change set in long ago.
But it could still be toned down, says Glauber.
“We have to make the curve a straight line again,” he says, referring to the development of the average temperature.
"The fact that the momentum has increased must make us all sit up and take notice," the minister appeals.
“We have to take the Paris Climate Agreement seriously.” If the Paris Climate Agreement were successfully implemented worldwide, the temperature in Bavaria would no longer rise significantly by 2050 at the latest.
On average, the experts then predict an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
As a reaction to the new dynamic, the climate protection goals in Bavaria would have to be "screwed up" again, emphasized Glauber and announced a Climate Package II.
In this, the protection of the moors and the decentralized supply of renewable energies should be anchored.
Glauber is thinking about equipping as many government buildings as possible with photovoltaic systems.
In a second step, this should also be done on commercial and private houses.
The expansion of wind power must also be accelerated.
He thinks the 10H rule is wrong, but here he is bound by the coalition agreement.
■ The criticism
The reaction was alarmed by the climate report.
SPD environmental politician Florian von Brunn spoke of a "horror forecast" and criticized the state government having achieved no reduction in greenhouse gases since 2005.
Green party leader Ludwig Hartmann also accused the CSU and free voters of inactivity.
The climate policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group, Christoph Skutella, called for financial help for the municipalities so that they could prepare for climate change.
At the same time, Bavaria must also be more committed to protection internationally.