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The dream of the traffic light (symbolic picture)
Photo: Matthias Makarinus / Getty Images
Hans-Ulrich Rülke, of all people.
Rülke, 59, the top candidate of the FDP in Baden-Württemberg, is considered a tough dog, a liberal old school.
For a long time he was an avowed opponent of the Green Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann.
But now Rülke could pave the way for a green-red-yellow coalition in the southwest.
If you want a "better state government", says Rülke, "only with the FDP" would be possible.
Of course, he would prefer to govern with the CDU.
But the numbers no longer provide that.
In 2016, Rülke rejected the traffic light, but he and the FDP have to get involved with new partners if they want to govern.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the traffic light alliance was an emergency solution five years ago.
But Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD) leads the coalition quite silently and the three parties want to continue to govern together.
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Leading candidate Rülke is now open to an alliance under green leadership
Photo: Christoph Schmidt / dpa
Elections will be held in both countries on March 14th.
Baden-Württemberg could serve as a laboratory for traffic lights at the federal level.
Such an alliance in the heart of liberalism of all places would fuel the debates.
At least that is the hope of the Greens and the SPD.
Both parties need the traffic light as a power option.
Social Democrats and Greens are currently competing for second place, both want to move into the Chancellery.
According to surveys, this is currently only conceivable in a red-red-green alliance - or in a traffic light coalition.
Lacy greens are skeptical of red-red-green
Especially lacy greens look at red-red-green (or, as they emphasize, green-red-red) with skepticism.
It is difficult for the Greens to rely on the left, especially when it comes to foreign and defense policy.
In an interview with SPIEGEL a few weeks ago, parliamentary group leader Anton Hofreiter said that "some positions" cannot be implemented in a government, that is "completely clear".
The left must decide "whether it wants to help shape".
Hofreiter belongs to the left wing of his party - it is remarkable that he is so critical of an alliance left of center.
From party circles it is said that a purely numerical majority is not enough for such a coalition.
It would be too unstable for that, given the dissenters in the ranks of the left.
A traffic light would therefore be the more pleasant coalition for many top greens.
In addition, they have no interest in being considered a junior partner of the Union before the election.
"The narrative that we absolutely wanted a black-green coalition comes from the SPD," says a green member of the Bundestag.
Another says that if there were the options "black-green and a traffic light under green leadership" after the election, it would be "crazy" not to fathom an alliance with the SPD and FDP.
However, the SPD does not see itself in the role of the Green's junior partner.
Although these are currently in front of the comrades in surveys, the Social Democrats hope that Scholz can score as an applicant with the greatest government experience as soon as the Greens and the Union have nominated their candidates for chancellor.
Many comrades also prefer to think about a traffic light than red-red-green.
"A traffic light alliance is not always easy," says the Rhineland-Palatinate SPD General Secretary Daniel Stich.
"But things are going well in Rhineland-Palatinate, and at the federal level, too, it offers the chance to send the Union back into the opposition after 16 years."
Siemtje Möller, spokeswoman for the conservative Seeheimer Kreis, calls the traffic light an "exciting option".
An alliance with the Greens and the FDP would be better than red-red-green, says Möller.
With the Left Party, she sees "hardly any room for rapprochement" in foreign and security policy.
Should the SPD actually end up in third place behind the Greens, the role of junior partner would also be conceivable.
Nobody wants to talk about that with the comrades.
When party leader Saskia Esken did it in the summer of 2020, she was shocked by her own ranks.
The tenor: This gives up any claim to leadership.
Only a few took Esken internally under protection.
They argue that if the SPD governs as a junior partner with the Union, one cannot refuse an alliance led by the Greens.
FDP leadership avoids advances
Whether the traffic light coalition has a chance in the federal government depends above all on the FDP.
In Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Bremen, after previous state elections, a traffic light was considered.
These considerations failed primarily because of the liberals.
At the federal level, too, there is currently no advertising for a traffic light alliance from the FDP - Christian Lindner prefers to highlight the black and yellow option in interviews.
Although the new General Secretary, Volker Wissing, is also Vice Prime Minister in a traffic light coalition in Rhineland-Palatinate, this does not yet give rise to a message for the republic.
A traffic light coalition in Baden-Württemberg and a possible continuation in Rhineland-Palatinate have "no effects" on the federal level, the top management told SPIEGEL.
But: The »rating« - that is, the reputation of the FDP - would »continue to rise« with a traffic light.
The FDP go "independently" in elections.
But it also says that there are no “prohibitions to think”.
How little traffic light is expected in the FDP leadership is shown by the information that a black-yellow coalition "still performs better than any form of traffic light" in surveys.
For some in the FDP, a traffic light under the leadership of the Greens would also be a horror performance.
"If that happens, there will be an uprising in our country," fears an FDP member of the Bundestag.
Relaxation between Kretschmann and Rülke
In Baden-Württemberg, an uprising because of the Green Prime Minister on the part of the FDP is not to be expected - but neither is resistance from the ranks of the SPD or the Greens against a traffic light coalition.
"Rülke's FDP would not be an easy partner, he is not a left-wing liberal, but neither is he an obstacle to a coalition," says Baden-Württemberg's SPD leader and top candidate Andreas Stoch.
Even the Greens are thinking out loud about a traffic light.
"Green-Black is a grand coalition in Baden-Württemberg," says a top green from the state.
That makes it difficult for both partners to distinguish themselves.
"A traffic light would be quite exciting for us," he says.
These considerations are also possible because Rülke and Kretschmann have now established a personal relationship with one another.
A trigger for the more relaxed relationship should have been an appearance by Kretschmann in March 2020 at Hohenzollern Castle.
At the invitation of the FDP state chief Michael Theurer, Kretschmann gave a speech in memory of the former Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel.
That Kretschmann paid tribute to the Baden-Württemberg FDP politician was not taken for granted and was taken as a message in the FDP.
For the subsequent lunch in Hohenzollern Castle, Theurer, himself a traffic light supporter, had resorted to a little trick: he placed the two opponents Kretschmann and Rülke next to each other at the table.
Another sign: When Kretschmann recently made his wife's cancer disease public, Rülke surprised everyone by announcing that he had "personally conveyed his good wishes to the Prime Minister and his wife a few days ago."
Maintaining personal contact between the Greens and the FDP has become more difficult at the federal level during the pandemic, but it is still possible.
Konstantin von Notz, Green MP and member of a discussion group of MPs from the Greens and FDP, said that the green-yellow group also met for video conferences.
The exchange is "as usual pleasant and confidential".
Nevertheless, the dispute between the Greens and the FDP is tough.
When top greens are asked about their shallow opposition work, it is often said that one is not Christian Lindner after all.
Compliments sound different.
Green taunts against the SPD
The SPD is accused in Green circles of being offended.
"It is difficult for the SPD that we are ahead of them," says a Green MP.
In talk shows, however, party leader Robert Habeck in particular often emphasizes that the SPD is closest to the Greens in terms of content.
The SPD sees it that way too.
The programmatic overlaps are greatest with the Greens.
Secretary General Lars Klingbeil maintains a good relationship with the Greens managing director Michael Kellner.
FDP treasurer Harald Christ is considered to be the most resilient bridge between social democrats and liberals.
Nobody knows the people involved on both sides as well as the former SME representative of the SPD, says an insider.
Christ left the party in December 2019 and switched to the FDP a little later.
If the majority is right at the end of September, it will show whether the trust of the three unequal partners is sufficient to forge a coalition.
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