The angst materialized, with production lines shut down.
In February, Renault interrupted its activity for several consecutive days in Tangier in Morocco, in Pitesti in Romania, but also in France, in Sandouville (Seine-Maritime).
Same punishment for Stellantis
(Editor's note: born from the merger of PSA and Fiat)
, whose plant in Eisenach, Germany, closed for one day, while the sites of Sochaux (Doubs) and Rennes (Ille-et-Vilaine ) were forced to cancel an extra work session scheduled on a Saturday.
Worse: the threat is still there.
"We are working with the risk of pearly closures on our factories, including in France, throughout the first half of the year," Renault confides.
A crisis unit monitors the problem in real time.
"
What exactly is going on?
Dependent on Asian production, the auto giants are suffering from a shortage of semiconductors, the main component of the microchips that have invaded cars.
The situation is particularly critical for "microcontrollers", the code name for mini-computers, used from the engine to the power steering, including ABS, airbags and parking assistance.
“At least 70 computers manage all the sensors of a mid-range vehicle”, dissects Patrick Leserf, professor at the Higher School of Aeronautical Techniques and Automobile Construction (Estaca).
State-of-the-art electric cars, phones and consoles
Silicon semiconductors and their millions of mini-processors are integrated into the printed circuits of parts supplied by major subcontractors (Bosch, Continental, Valeo, Faurecia).
The ace!
In 2020, because of the pandemic and then the fall in car sales, "OEMs reduced their orders and consumed their stocks", decrypts an adviser to Agnès Pannier Runacher, the Minister responsible for industry.
“What they did not foresee was the nervous recovery of the market, with large volumes in electric and plug-in hybrid, that is to say vehicles that consume a lot of electronics.
Double penalty: the demand for electronic chips had increased, meanwhile, in terms of smartphones (including the new 5G models), tablets, computers and game consoles, in which semiconductor devices are also essential.
The processor manufacturer AMD is also in a delicate situation to supply Sony and Microsoft in their PS5 and Xbox Series productions.
Before him, the all-powerful Apple manufacturer had to postpone the release of its iPhones.
Admittedly, the automotive sector represents “only” 12% of the world semiconductor market, underlines Stefan May, CEO of Continental France.
But the competition is extremely fierce "since the whole earth is telecommuting" and component prices have skyrocketed.
Globally, the current bottling is at the level of the Taiwanese smelter TSMC, which generates 70% of production with its nanometer engraving and its ultramodern multi-billion dollar factory.
The processor production giant itself has serious supply problems with its own subcontractors with a currently energized subcomponent, the ABF substrate, a resin film that has become the essential electrical insulator.
Chinese suppliers are no longer able to keep up with global demand after having satisfied part of the orders delayed in 2020 due to plant closures in a confined China.
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TSMC is also catching up after closing massive orders last summer from Huawei, the Chinese electronics maker which stockpiled components before being hit by US bans on buying them.
His rivals did the same on their side in the hope of damning him the pawn.
Manufacturers suspected of favoring more profitable chips
In terms of equipment manufacturers and manufacturers, some suspect Asian manufacturers of favoring the most profitable chips… “Cars are carrying processors from one to two years ago, while the offer is focused on the latest models that are more finely engraved and more profitable. », Explains Stéphane Quentin, marketing director for France of the graphics card manufacturer Nvidia.
"The founders anticipated that the automotive industry was not going to restart as quickly and prioritized manufacturers whose sales were soaring such as PCs and tablets", agrees Patrick Pélata of the Academy of Technologies.
"It is enough that a single microprocessor made of several semiconductors is missing to stop production", underlines this ex-CEO of Renault who had to manage a similar crisis after the tsunami in Japan.
The diamond brand has already quantified the impact on 2021 production: “The peak of the shortage should be reached in the second quarter.
Our most recent estimate, taking into account a catch-up in production in the second half of the year, gives a risk of around 100,000 vehicles produced less over the year.
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Still months of shortage
Little consolation, the French manufacturers are not the only ones affected.
In the United States, General Motors and Ford also had to suspend production in several factories and warned that it will cost them billions of dollars.
We will therefore have to wait.
"The production cycle of a component is at least four months, an absolutely incompressible period", indicates a senior official at Bercy.
Bosch, the world's leading automotive supplier and producer of components with semiconductor devices, even talks about six months for some complex chips.
The experts, in the end, do not foresee a return to normalcy before the summer.