02/25/2021 11:26 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 02/25/2021 11:38 PM
Although it tries to hide,
there are strong differences
with the IMF to make an agreement and reschedule the debt that Argentina has with Washington.
The negotiations are tense and in recent weeks they have not advanced: they are
bogged down in four central axes
of economic policy.
IMF spokespersons affirm that Economía did not present a plan and the Casa Rosada that the Fund is asking for unacceptable things.
The IMF does not accept the BCRA's plan to accumulate reserves and there are differences due to the –still– exorbitant exchange rate gap.
You want it to be 30%.
But the central issue is the fiscal deficit: in Washington they do not share the path of reduction that the Casa Rosada seeks.
There is another background fight: the rate of increase in rates.
The IMF
accepts the 30% guideline
provided - implicitly - in the Budget.
It would be the minimum adjustment, so as not to raise the subsidies.
But Cristina does not share that criterion: the
vice president is promoting a change in the adjustment formulas
and eliminating indexation by exchange rate from the contracts.
This week, its "operators" pushed to modify that current clause in the service contracts.
Thus,
the "Cristina effect" is another headache
for negotiators and puts a lot of pressure on the Ministry of Economy.
The strong tension is about protecting and not transcending the business world.
There is, indeed, a single political agreement between Washington and Buenos Aires: hide the differences and "pretend to be negotiating" without setbacks.
This pact between Kristalina Georgieva and Martín Guzmán seeks one goal:
that the noise in the conversations does not affect the precarious "exchange pax"
- the only one these days - that Alberto has.
Cristina Kirchner, vice president and president of the Senate.
Photo Rolando Andrade Stracuzzi
The President went through his worst week.
Guzmán knows the situation by heart: Economy is playing the whole strategy of the year - and the Casa Rosada, the elections - to sustain the price of the ticket.
Clarín
confirmed in qualified sources in Washington and the Palacio de Hacienda that,
until now, the advances do not exist.
The mission to Mexico confirmed the problems: only in this way is it justified that Alberto has exposed himself to asking Andrés López Obrador to intercede with the IMF, when it is known that Mexico does not have decisive influence in Washington.
To try to unblock things - precisely - the minister will travel to the IMF in the third week of March.
The tour of Europe and Asia aims to seek political support.
In other words: for now there is no consensus in the IMF board to endorse a plan with Argentina.
In secret, Alberto would have spoken with Pope Francis.
The President asked him to address Joe Biden himself.
Also, the minister would probe something else:
how to minimize the costs of going into default with the Paris Club
.
The millionaire maturity was set out in the agreement that Axel Kicillof drew up –in one day.
In 2014, Kicillof achieved an express closing by agreeing to many concessions: recognizing and paying off bad debts of $ 3.6 billion.
The default was 6,100 and Kicillof signed for 9,700 million dollars.
Clauses harmful to the Argentine interest were also included.
The contract that Kicillof signed with the Paris Club was never disclosed
and is kept a state secret.
Now, Cristina wants to impose an "epic story" on the IMF question.
That is why he ordered Anabel Fernández Sagasti to send a note to Washington demanding an internal investigation into the millionaire loan that the IMF granted Mauricio Macri.
The shipment has a double motivation: that the IMF softens when negotiating with Guzmán and that it produces an opinion criticizing the credit - it was given out of statute - in favor of the former president and his re-election.
Alberto Fernández, with the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
He would have asked him for help in negotiations with the IMF.
Photo EFE
The move came late.
More than a semester ago, the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office launched its own investigation and put the two technocrats who negotiated the agreement on the chapel: Alejandro Werner and the Italian Roberto Cardarelli.
IMF bureaucrats - incredibly - are routinely more self-critical than local leaders.
Cristina's self-criticism
for her questioned mandates
is still expected in Argentina
.
Macri returned to the ring without saying anything and Alberto still did not explain how he went from being a staunch enemy of Cristina to her candidate for President.
Charles Collyns - the head of the IMF Office - questions the way in which support was given to Macri.
It was an order from Donald Trump to favor his re-election, and it went wrong.
But his opinion will not influence the negotiation
: Cristina is unaware that it is an internal audit, which works in parallel in Washington.
The question is followed among business leaders.
The IMF issue is key.
Also the move that Mercedes Marcó del Pont will make.
The Head of the AFIP prepares an offensive against rich people that could generate a earthquake.
This is the controversial wealth tax, the payment of which is due in weeks.
The attack would target
some 2,500 businessmen - out of a total of 13,000 taxpayers -
who would have to pay the tribute.
In a secret AFIP "memo" the following is affirmed: that those 2,500 wealthy taxpayers got out and did not present –not even– sworn statements of 2019 to pay Personal Assets.
The internal document affirms, threateningly, that this operation would be a "ruse" not to pay the controversial wealth tax.
Marcó del Pont would have endorsement for a decision taken: if these businessmen do not pay the tribute on time, he will immediately denounce them in the Criminal Justice.
In the UIA they are that trill.
The Copal furious with the complaints of Paula Español.
Mercedes Marcó del Pont prepares the application of the wealth tax.
Photo Telam Presidency
The Secretary of Commerce launched this offensive that had another objective: to fray Guzmán's rapprochement with businessmen.
The Guzmán-Español fight reflects internal strengths on how to face the inflationary problem.
The INDEC speaks of a floor for February of 3.3%.
The minister is going through a moment of "turbulence" in the cabinet.
The Máximo Field criticizes him for cutting himself off.
The last week he had an unusual setback with the President's intimate environment: it was due to the "VIP vaccination" scandal.
Guzmán complained about the diffusion of his name - and his team - on the payroll of the beneficiaries.
All were inoculated on January 29 at the Palacio de Hacienda
.
The minister, with anger, argued that the inclusion in that list was unfair and that it affected his international image, when he will initiate crucial negotiations abroad.
He justified with this argument:
all those vaccinated are part of the external negotiating team
.
The Palacio de Hacienda also blamed the Casa Rosada itself for the setback.
It was in the middle of the political tremor and they affirmed:
"we did it by order of the Casa Rosada."
Julio Vitobello and Juan Pablo Biondi made him a strong reproach in the privacy of the mission to Mexico.
Both counterattacked in the tense meeting: "This is politics and no one is saved alone."
Carla Vizzotti justified the minister.
But the minister has a serious problem
: explaining that she was unaware of illegal vaccination.
So far everything complicates it: on the list there are 9 officials - of the highest rank - who were vaccinated under their noses at the Ministry.
Among them, an advisor to the secretariat that Vizzotti led.
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