The figures for the Covid-19 epidemic should be handled with care, and Jean Castex knows it better than anyone.
However, his communication Thursday evening was marred by several errors.
During his press conference, the Prime Minister once again spoke of the epidemiological situation in France, praising our relative good ranking in the race for vaccination.
Except that several "graphics on the screen" supposed to establish it, then relayed on his Twitter account, contained inaccuracies!
We vaccinate a lot, and most importantly, we vaccinate the right people.
pic.twitter.com/ppFOxCV5PX
- Jean Castex (@JeanCASTEX) February 25, 2021
Compared to its main neighbors, France is "in the lead for the vaccination of people most exposed to severe forms of Covid," said the Prime Minister.
He referred in particular to people aged at least 75 years, particularly at risk.
As he indicates, “more than a quarter of people over 75 have been vaccinated” in France.
This rate is precisely 25.4% as of February 24, according to the latest data from Public Health France.
Until then, the Prime Minister is therefore right.
The problem concerns other countries.
The graph presented by the Prime Minister indeed shows a percentage of 5% of those 75 and over who have received at least one dose of vaccine in Italy.
A particularly low rate which is surprising, and which we therefore went to check.
First difficulty: in our Italian neighbors, vaccination figures are only available by age group of 10 years.
687,240 injections were performed on people aged at least 80 years and 558,823 of them are first doses, according to data as of February 24 made available daily by the transalpine authorities.
This means that nearly 560,000 very old people have received at least one injection by this date.
Compared to the population, this represents 12.6% of those 80 and over.
If we look this time at those 70 and over, this rate is 6.2%.
We therefore do not see how those 75 and over could be only 5% to have received at least one dose, especially since no source appears on the graph.
French flag upside down
Contacted, Matignon recognizes an error.
If it does not change the final observation (there are more elderly people who have received at least one dose in France than in Italy), it is nonetheless a stain because the difference is not as important.
The confusion seems to come from establishments for the elderly (EPA), called Ehpad in France.
Another slide, sent in the Matignon press kit in the evening, gives the vaccination coverage by country among people aged 75… except those living in EPA.
The rate drops from 25% to 21% in France, but it is still 5% in Italy.
Matignon says he "cross-checked these figures with our embassies" and recognizes that the analyzes "are partly carried out on the basis of estimates in order to be able to compare these data".
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These encrypted errors are part of a larger set of visual quirks.
On the same graph of the proportion of people aged 75 and over who have been vaccinated, the flags of France and Germany have been inverted, with red on the left.
Many Internet users reacted, between sarcasm and irony.
How is such a fault possible?
pic.twitter.com/b9j3sYd7Mk
- Laurence Parisot (@LaurenceParisot) February 25, 2021
On another visual, the month of December appears before that of November.
Finally, the curve of new daily cases (on average over the past week) appears to peak around 15,000, while the reality is around 20,000. "All this was done a bit in haste", pleads a ministerial adviser .
@gforestier @GuillaumeRozier you confirm this graph ??
We are less than 15,000 over 7 rolling days as of Feb 23?
pic.twitter.com/g170HUnEIP
- IK stef (@ik_stef) February 25, 2021
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This is not the first time that Jean Castex has mixed up brushes in numbers.
On January 7, he mentioned "nearly 2,500 hospitalizations every day".
The reality was two less less, since approximately 1230 patients were hospitalized daily.
Contacted at the time by Le Parisien, Matignon had recognized an "error" and promised to "rectify the situation".
