It is an idea as old as the world: to predict, to prophesy, it is not only to announce the future, but to decide it.
In an interview with
Le Point
magazine
published this Saturday, the ecologist Julien Bayou bowed to the exercise by predicting that "
Emmanuel Macron will lose (it) against Marine Le Pen
" in 2022. And the national secretary of EELV to add: "
Today, there are only two forces which can win against [the president of the RN]: the right and us, the environmentalists
".
While all the polls show that, if the presidential election took place today, the 2017 duel would be replayed (even though, according to these same polls, the French do not want such a repetition), Julien Bayou defends the possibility of a "
alternative
”environmentalist.
To read also: The "deep fakes", a threat to the presidential campaign of 2022
"
Three political projects are on the table today: the past, the present and the future
", analyzes the one who is piloting the EELV primary for 2022, which will be held in September.
The past ?
"
Marine Le Pen
", according to him.
The present ?
"
Emmanuel Macron
", he adds.
What about the future?
The environmental candidate for regional in Île-de-France announces: "
it is the fight against climate change and social injustice, two challenges of the 21st century which are at the heart of our project
".
The national secretary of EELV Julien Bayou.
Francois Bouchon / Le Figaro
And what might the EELV candidate look like in 2022?
"
The candidate will be pro-European, also critical of Europe, for the reception of refugees, for the criteria of economic aid, for the fight against social discrimination, for equality women and men, for the transition from nuclear to renewable energies,
”explains Julien Bayou, who excludes Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, from running for the primaries of her party.
"
No, no, not Anne Hidalgo,
" he even repeats.
"
The one through whom the RN can come to power
"
To predict the defeat of Emmanuel Macron in 2022, Julien Bayou is based on what he considers to be a right-wing of the current presidential majority.
“
Do we realize the political shift in this country?
In 2021, Marine Le Pen is considered
too soft
by the Minister of the Interior of a government that wants to be the sole bulwark against the National Rally (...) The reality is that Emmanuel Macron is the one by whom RN can come to power tomorrow,
”he says, referring to the recent televised duel between the president of the RN and the Minister of the Interior Gerald Darmanin.
The ecologist also bases his prediction on recent political polls: “
With [Emmanuel Macron], the gap with Marine Le Pen has narrowed considerably because of him.
We are at 48 against 52% on average.
If that is not a warning signal…
”Julien Bayou is referring here to a survey by Louis Harris Interactive published at the end of January which in fact only gave Emmanuel Macron a short lead of 4 points - in other words, within the margin of error - in the event of a new presidential duel with the RN candidate.
Completely unprecedented results for Marine Le Pen, who obtained only 33.9% of the vote in the 2017 presidential election, which was already nearly twice as much as her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in the 2002 presidential election (17.8%).
"
It would suffice for the majority to put
pension reform
back on the table
for Marine Le Pen to become a favorite again in the presidential election
", still predicts Julien Bayou, referring to the retirement desired by Emmanuel Macron but postponed
sine die
because of the Covid, and which could become one of the central issues of the 2022 presidential election.
Read also: Presidential 2022: will the candidate of the right be chosen by the polls?
This interview in
Le Point
is published on the same day as a
Liberation
investigation
titled: "
The dam badly barred
".
"
A growing number of left-wing voters affirm: even in the second round, they will not vote for the head of state, more and more anchored to the right
", advances the daily itself marked on the left , who has received "
hundreds of letters
" from voters who "no longer want to block.
“
What a drift to see part of the left send back Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron!
To prevent our country from drifting towards all forms of radicalization is an urgent necessity.
We will see who is there in the next regional elections
”, reacted strongly on Twitter François de Rugy, himself a former EELV but who joined the presidential majority in 2017 before becoming president of the National Assembly ( 2017-2018) then Minister of State, in charge of Ecology (2018-2019).
“
I have already blocked off.
And I will do it again.
#FrontRepublicain Those who spare the extremes, always and again, bear a responsibility
”, for his part defended the former Minister of the Interior, Christophe Castaner.
What compass?
Another figure of the majority, Nathalie Loiseau, who led the LREM list in the last European elections, was also offended, accusing the left of "
losing the compass
".
These passes illustrate the difficulty of a presidential election which, more than having lost the North, has lost its left-right axis.
Since 2017, the great uncertainty has been: who will advance to the second round?
And, in the minds of political strategists, a little music: in front of whom do we have an interest in finding ourselves in the second round?
And each of us accusing each other of raising the RN ...
Read also: Gabriel Attal says he hopes for a second round without Marine Le Pen in 2022
In the current polls, but which are only a photograph of the voting intentions at a given moment and not a prediction of what will be, the new duo Marine Le Pen / Emmanuel Macron still leads the way with around 25% of the intentions of vote, while the right hovers around 15%.
As for the left, it is always Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the boss of rebellious France, who obtains the best score (between 11 and 12%) while EELV or Anne Hidalgo would obtain far less than 10%.
But, with these latest figures, Julien Bayou is careful not to give the force of prediction.
