Overall, the number of new infections is increasing - but the incidence is falling rapidly among the very old.
Are the vaccinations slowly returning to normal?
Munich - The first look at the number of infections is frustrating.
They have already risen again: The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 9997 new infections within one day on Friday.
That is almost 900 more than a week ago.
On closer inspection, however, the trend is moving in a positive direction: the numbers are falling among senior citizens.
At the beginning of February, the incidence * among the very old was still 200, says Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU).
Now only at 70. Is that the first success of the vaccinations?
"You could also think that after a year the government would have finally managed to protect home residents with good concepts," says the virologist Alexander Kekulé from the University of Halle.
But he thinks that is impossible.
“We had massive outbreaks in homes until the week before last.
So the only explanation for the falling numbers among the very old is the vaccination effect.
Above all the effect of the first dose - because many have not yet received a second. "
The majority of nursing home residents in Germany have received their first Corona dose
The majority of nursing home residents in Germany have now received their first Corona * dose.
"I am convinced that just one dose can dramatically improve the situation," says Alexander Kekulé.
Because they can protect against serious illness and death.
"We should scrape together all the RNA vaccines to vaccinate all older people - regardless of whether there is enough left for a second dose." The fact that the numbers are now falling among the very old shows that this would be the right strategy.
Lower Saxony's Prime Minister Stephan Weil is now also in favor of it.
The SPD politician told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that one could "deviate from the previous vaccination schedule for the less endangered people and initially give as many people as possible the first vaccination."
The Standing Vaccination Commission (STIKO), however, continues to recommend strictly withholding enough vaccine for a second dose.
In Germany, too, the first dose could already have an effect on the death rate
Above all in England or Scotland, however, one wants to avoid serious courses and deaths with as many first vaccinations as possible.
In Germany, too, the first dose could already have an effect on the death rate, says virologist Gerd Uwe Liebert, former director of the Leipzig University Clinic.
Because the number of daily reported deaths is falling - although the incidence values have increased slightly in the past few days for all age groups up to 74.
On Friday, the RKI recorded 394 deaths - a week earlier there were 508.
"Still, we shouldn't be careless now," warns Liebert.
“It is important that this first successful vaccination does not send the wrong signal.” Because Liebert also considers the second vaccination to be urgently necessary for “almost complete protection”.
"It would be premature to talk about easing now."
Kekulé questions lockdown once seniors are protected
The question remains, when the vaccination success can lead to a new strategy of the measures - and according to which criteria this should be decided.
Infectiologist Christoph Spinner from the Munich Klinikum rechts der Isar finds: The more people are vaccinated, the less the "number of absolute new infections" matters.
And Alexander Kekulé also says: "If we reduce mortality through vaccination, we can also afford a higher incidence."
Biontech boss Ugur Sahin told the "Spiegel" that from mid-March onwards, the elderly population who were vaccinated first should "reduce mortality if the vaccinations continue".
Kekulé thinks: As soon as seniors are protected, the question arises whether the strict lockdown is still justified.
“I am against general easing.
If we open everything, the numbers will go up again. ”Nevertheless, you could go back to everyday life.
"The vaccinations are due, the summer will soon help us, and now, finally, after a year, the rapid tests are coming." With intensive testing, schools can be opened and travel made possible.
“So instead of just loosening up, we should be selective.
Then we don't need a new lockdown in autumn. ”- *
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