Eduardo Paladini
02/27/2021 11:11 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 02/27/2021 11:11 AM
Every time
Alberto Fernández
felt cornered by public opinion, such as the recent VIP Vaccination scandal, he automatically appealed to the most convenient resource of the crack: he sought to compare himself in some way with
Mauricio Macri
, his predecessor, assuming that the rejection of the figure of the former president would save him.
A
new poll
accessed this weekend by
Clarín
shows for the first time the leader of Juntos por el Cambio with better numbers than his counterpart from the Frente de Todos.
And it opens the question: has Fernández already lost that bonus?
Who generates more adhesions and, above all, more criticism?
The survey that raises this question with its numbers is from
Trespuntozero
, a consulting firm that has clients on both sides of different parties and even did work for the current national government.
With an interesting precedent: in October 2019, and after the widespread blunder of the PASO, it was the Argentine pollster that best predicted the presidential one.
For its latest survey, between February 23 and 25, it surveyed
1,000 cases
throughout the country and presented a report with the main current data.
To start with, in the chapter on
"Sociopolitical Climate"
, it is already noted that these are not good times for the ruling party.
- With
40.6%
,
corruption
clearly reappears as the
problem that most worries
Argentines (did the VIP Vaccination have more influence or the conviction of Lázaro Báez).
- The
negative evaluation
of the
national management
seems to find no bottom: it reached
- 66.7%
, after having had a floor of - 16.3% at the end of March.
v 1.5
Alberto Fernández vs.
Mauricio Macri 1
Based on a national survey of 1,000 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Trespuntozero
Infographic:
Clarín
Later,
Trespuntozero
delves into the images of the main leaders of the two great forces.
And comes the surprise:
-
Fernández
combines
32%
positive (14% very good and 18% good) and
- 60.9%
negative (16.5% bad and 43.4% very bad).
Differential against - 28.9 points.
-
Macri
, on the other hand, is
40.3%
positive (14.5% good and 25.8% very good) and
- 56.2%
negative (15.8% bad and 40.4% very bad).
Differential also against, but 15.9 points.
That is, the bid became who would be the least bad.
An unthinkable situation months ago.
With a
conclusive data
: between the end of March and April, Fernández had a peak of 75.4% weighting in favor, and
he took between 30 and 40 points from his predecessor
.
The President first lost the circumstantial support of voters from other parties -including Juntos por el Cambio-, after the softer ruling party and now he also receives questions from the toughest Kirchnerista.
v 1.5
Alberto Fernández vs.
Mauricio Macri 2
Based on a national survey of 1,000 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Trespuntozero
Infographic:
Clarín
This phenomenon will have to be followed carefully.
Most of the consulting firms coincide with the evolution of both leaders -Fernández on the downside and Macri, more oscillating but stable-, although
almost all continue to put the current president up
.
With this change, Fernández was somehow mimicked with the numbers of Cristina Kirchner, who in the
Trespuntozero
table
adds up + 29.3% and - 66.9% (negative differential of - 37.6 points).
The only one who continues to avoid this red outlook is
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
, who scores comfortably with a balance of 19.1 points in favor, thanks to a positive of
51.2%
and a negative of -32.1%.
Equally, an alert sounds for the Buenosairean head of Government: since October he lost 12 weighting points in favor.
v 1.5
Alberto Fernández vs.
Mauricio Macri 3
Based on a national survey of 1,000 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Trespuntozero
Infographic:
Clarín
An interesting breakdown to observe and analyze in the study is the table that shows opinions according to
sex, age, educational level and area of residence
.
There are fewer differences than might be assumed in such a polarized setting.
-
The best of Macri
appears among women (42% positive), those over 51 years of age (+ 50.8%), those who only finished primary school (+ 43.3%) and those who live inside the country (+ 43.1%).
The most striking thing in his case is the data by educational level, since in general Juntos por el Cambio has stronger support among university students.
-
The best of Fernández
, curiously, also occurs among women (+ 36%), those over 51 (34.3%), those who finished primary school (34.4%) and -the only difference with Macri- los living in the AMBA (+ 32.9%).