After countless beatings and humiliations suffered by the Iranians, it is likely that hitting the ship will not cause Israel to break the barriers • The Biden administration, which has been lax against Tehran, is beginning to change its approach
The ship damaged in the blast in Oman Bay
Photo:
Katsumi Yamamoto, MarineTraffic.com
The reactor at Bushehr
Photo:
AP
Ali Khamenei
Photo:
IPI
Joe Biden
Photo:
AP
Three key questions preceded the heated discussions held over the weekend in the defense establishment following the attack on an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman:
Is this a deliberate attack?
Was the attack knowingly aimed at an Israeli-owned ship?
And assuming it is a terrorist attack - who is responsible for it?
The answer to the first two questions, according to senior security officials, is unequivocally positive.
Further to this, the answer to the third question is also almost self-evident: Iran.
There is no other factor in this space that has both the motivation and ability to carry out such an attack - and seemingly disappear without leaving a trace.
Analysis of the damage to the ship shows that it was a deliberate sabotage.
The owner of the shipping company, Rami Unger, talked over the weekend about two options - mines or missiles - but given that the hit was above the water line, it was estimated last night that it was two missiles fired at it, on both sides.
The ship docked in the port of Dubai yesterday, and it can be assumed that Israeli crews will conduct thorough inspections to learn about the nature of the attack and the weapons.
In the past, the Navy of the Revolutionary Guards has demonstrated the ability to carry out such attacks, so it is likely that it is also responsible for the current operation.
The terrorists had no problem sinking the ship, but it seems that the attack was carried out so that it would be damaged but there would be no casualties.
In 2019, Iran, Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia were accused of sabotaging an oil tanker in the Red Sea.
In Israel, they were not surprised by the attack.
Iran has been hit hard in recent years all over the Middle East and on its own soil, and it has long been seeking revenge.
Damage to the ship allows it to maintain a low-profile campaign, without risking an overly harsh reaction.
Although the Iranians have chosen a civilian rather than a military target, it is doubtful whether Israel will choose to break the tools.
Israel now has the opportunity to leverage the event precisely in the diplomatic arena, especially vis-à-vis the Washington administration, which is busy formulating its policy vis-à-vis Iran.
After a first month in which the Biden administration showed alarming weakness against the Iranians, it seems that it is now ripe to face reality;
The first evidence of this was given on Thursday night, when the Americans attacked Iranian targets on Syrian soil, in response to the attacks of pro-Iranian militias against American targets in Iraq.
The first Israeli interest now is the Iranian nuclear program.
The main concern is a possible reversal of the original nuclear deal from 2015, and the effort decided upon at the multi-participant debate convened last week by the prime minister is to persuade the US administration to work for an improved agreement that will keep Iran far from the nuclear and nuclear-capable.
Israel is also interested in restricting Iranian activity in the region, and such an attack will help in an effort to blacken Iran and present its negative impact on the region.
The name of the game in this effort is intelligence.
Just like in the nucleus, Israel needs to reach out to Washington - and the other relevant capitals as well - and present facts and evidence to the Americans.
Such are plentiful regarding the nuclear and violations and deceptions committed by the Iranians, and presumably they will also be found regarding yesterday’s attack in the Gulf of Oman.
It is doubtful whether this political-intelligence move will curb Iranian aggression.
Since the United States' withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran has carried out quite a few violent actions, including against Western naval targets.
There were options for a response, and Israel has plenty, and in a variety of ways.
According to foreign publications, Israel chose to respond to a cyber attack attributed to Iran last year (against water infrastructure) as well as a cyber attack (on the port of Bender Abbas), and now it will be required to decide if and how to respond to the latest attack.
As mentioned, the political opportunity inherent in the event seems to be more significant at the moment, and in any case - the front with Iran is regularly conducted in a variety of places and means, and despite the recent event, Israel leads it, and by a significant gap.