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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Photo: Jorge Silva / REUTERS
The paper only has four pages, but it has the potential to change the power structure in the Middle East.
"We assume that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has approved an operation with the aim of catching and killing the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey," said the report published by American intelligence coordinator Avril Haines on Friday let.
The paper, written in sober language, is both an indictment and a change of course: It makes it clear that the USA blames the strong man in Riyadh for the brutal murder of the Washington Post columnist Khashoggi on October 2, 2018. And at the same time it is a clear indication that the new US President Joe Biden is unwilling to continue the course of his predecessor Donald Trump, who had turned a blind eye to the gruesome crime.
Immediately after the murder of Khashoggi there was little doubt that bin Salman was behind the crime.
Hardly anyone in the western secret services believed the official version of Saudi Arabia that the death of Khashoggi was a secret service operation that got out of hand.
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A poster in memory of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi who was killed
Photo: Osman Orsal / REUTERS
The US secret service paper now states: “Since 2017, the Crown Prince has had absolute control over the Saudi security and secret service apparatus.
This makes it very unlikely that Saudi officials would carry out an operation of this importance without the Crown Prince's prior consent. "
The report also explains in detail how close the members of the murder squad were to the Crown Prince and his confidants.
"The 15-strong team that arrived in Istanbul on October 2, 2018 consisted of officials who either worked for the Saudi Center for Studies and Media Affairs at the royal court or were associated with it," the paper says.
"At the time of the attack, this facility was headed by Saud al-Qahtani, a close confidante of bin Salman, who had declared in mid-October 2018 that he would not make a decision without the consent of the Crown Prince."
Trump ignored the findings of his intelligence services
The paper does not reveal any new details about the course of the murder of Khashoggi.
These, of course, were made public immediately after the crime.
The journalist had traveled to Istanbul to get papers for his upcoming wedding from the Saudi consulate.
The murder squad was waiting there, and the crime could be reconstructed in such minute detail because the Turkish secret service had bugged the building.
Apparently, Khashoggi was drugged and cut up with a bone saw after his death.
Although shortly after the crime the American secret service CIA came to the conclusion that bin Salman was the mastermind, then President Trump refused to condemn the Crown Prince directly.
"Maybe he did it, maybe not," Trump said in November 2018.
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Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman (in June 2019 in Japan)
Photo: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
At the time, he made no secret of the fact that his reluctance also had something to do with Saudi arms orders in the USA.
"If we are that stupid and dissolve these contracts, China and Russia would benefit from it and would be only too happy to take over the business," said Trump.
In addition, the Saudis are a partner in the fight against Iran, a country "that has on its conscience many US citizens and innocent people throughout the Middle East."
In this respect, the publication of the report is above all a political gesture.
Almost at the same time as the secret service paper, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken issued a declaration that the US would issue a so-called "Khashoggi ban".
This enables visa restrictions for people who try to intimidate journalists or civil rights activists.
At the same time, however, Blinken emphasized that the USA would continue to "invest in relations with Saudi Arabia."
Biden is now facing a difficult tightrope walk.
The Saudi royal family has traditionally been one of the United States' closest allies in the Gulf, and Biden made it clear in a key foreign policy address at the beginning of February that nothing should change in principle.
"We will continue to support Saudi Arabia and help protect its people, its sovereignty and its borders," Biden said.
At the same time, however, he has put the delivery of precision ammunition to Saudi Arabia on hold, thereby sending a clear signal that the US is no longer supporting the Saudis' bombing war in Yemen.
Biden called the conflict a "strategic and humanitarian catastrophe."
The Crown Prince systematically expanded his power
Obviously, the new US president's intention is not to dwell on the power of the Saudi crown prince.
The day before the intelligence report was released, Biden was on the phone with Saudi King Salman, and the White House left no doubt that the president was not interested in having bin Salman on the line.
The phone call was planned as a "one-to-one conversation" with the 85-year-old ruler.
The question is, however, whether the US president can slow down the 35-year-old crown prince permanently or even push him aside.
The Saudi State Department reacted indignantly to the US intelligence report, calling it "false" and "unacceptable".
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US President Biden in the Oval Office
Photo: Evan Vucci / AP
It is still unclear whether Biden is ready to punish the Crown Prince directly, as requested by Democrat Adam Schiff, the chairman of the intelligence committee in the US House of Representatives.
Bin Salman has systematically expanded his power in Saudi Arabia over the past few years and eliminated potential competitors.
He maintained close relations with the Trump administration, which not only arranged business with Riyadh, but also organized a rapprochement between the Gulf states and Israel and thus forged an alliance against Shiite Iran.
Biden, on the other hand, wants to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, which annoys not only Gulf states, but also Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Probably at his behest, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was killed at the end of November - apparently also to make it more difficult to reactivate the nuclear deal, from which Trump left in May 2018.
Biden now faces an almost insoluble task: He wants to show that human rights count again and at the same time do not lose Saudi Arabia as a partner - a country whose supposed future leader has just been declared an assassin by the USA.
He wants a rapprochement with an Iran in which the radical forces have gained strength since Trump broke the nuclear deal.
And he has to find a sensible working relationship with Netanyahu, who will do everything possible to keep the nuclear deal dead paper.
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