Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2021-03-02 07:00
Last update date: 2021-03-02 07:00
Forty-seven people who participated in or held the pro-democracy primaries were charged with "conspiracy to subvert state power" by the police the day before yesterday (February 28) and appeared in West Kowloon Magistracy yesterday morning.
As the bail threshold under the "Hong Kong National Security Law" is extremely high, it is believed that these people will have to go through a long period of repayment regardless of whether they are ultimately convicted or not.
Since the National Security Law came into effect, Beijing and the Hong Kong government have taken successive actions to rectify the non-organizational camps in different sectors.
Judging from the previous law enforcement actions and the identity of the accused in the primary election so far, it can be said that most of the core figures of the pro-democracy party have been "netted", approaching the point of "uprooting".
Political circles can't help asking: Who is Beijing's next goal?
Integrating all sources of information, the "public official system" may become one of the key targets for the next round of purging.
And such people can also be divided into two parts: existing senior civil servants and employees of public organizations.
▼47 democrats charged with conspiracy to subvert state power▼
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After the democrats are "uprooted" and the two key sectors are purged, they need to "look for new enemies"?
After the legislative amendments in 2019, the traditional pan-democrats merged with the radical protesters and won a big victory in the district council elections. Last year, they even pointed at the Legislative Council 35+, posing a clear threat to Beijing.
In the end, Beijing announced in May the "Hong Kong District National Security Law". The original legislative council elections were "coincidentally" delayed due to the third wave of the epidemic. Democrats temporarily lost their focus on political issues and space for activities. Greatly narrowed.
The raid in the primary election in early January, and at least 47 people have been prosecuted. Most of those who intend to compete for seats in the Legislative Council and the organizers of the primary election have been arrested.
For a while, it is difficult for the democrats to counterattack in the political arena.
At the same time, the "National Security Law" has also brought out a wave of purge (or "reform") in many aspects, especially the media and education circles.
In the media sector, from the arrest of Next Media’s founder Li Zhiying to the arrest of the director of the Hong Kong and Taiwan "Clang Collection" on July 21, they are all directly or indirectly related to political events; in the education sector, the government has successively cited the "Education Ordinance" ", cancel the production of teaching materials talking about "Hong Kong independence", teachers accused of using inappropriate teaching content.
According to the analysis by Liu Zhaojia, the vice chairman of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Association, because the above two sectors involve ideological shaping, they must be Beijing's key targets for rectification.
The question is, when the democrats are close to being "killed by one net" in politics, and education and the media have been rectified to a certain extent, what's next?
(who is the next?)
From a political point of view, once the machine of struggle is activated, it is not so easy to stop.
Ma Yue, an associate professor in the Department of Politics and Administration at the Chinese University, said that the shrinking of the democrats is not necessarily a good thing for the establishment camp. In particular, the deep blue politicians lost their main targets in a short time, and their political positions will also be affected. The test is that "searching for new enemies" can maintain its own political energy and is quite in line with Beijing's general direction.
The next battlefield: further compelling senior civil servants to show their loyalty
Among them, the civil service system is a section that the government has been hoping to rectify.
As we all know, during the turmoil of the legislative amendments the previous year, civil service organizations rallied against the government, and more than 40 people were arrested in social incidents, which caused extreme dissatisfaction with the SAR and the central government.
In addition, Hong Kong civil servants act in compliance with the rules, must have a legal basis, and cannot tolerate going beyond the norm. This is also very different from the mainland style of prioritizing political loyalty.
Article 6 of the "National Security Law" already requires those who hold public office to take an oath or sign a declaration to uphold the "Basic Law" and to be loyal to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China.
After the "National Security Law" came into effect, the government has arranged for principal officials and civil servants at all levels to swear or sign declarations in batches.
However, from the recent actions of the "Deep Blue" camp, it is clear that they are not satisfied with this. The attack on Liu Liqun is a clear proof.
According to the explanation by the Executive Council member Ip Liu Shuyi, the FEHD did not immediately clean up the Lennon Wall last year because of the unfinished judicial review process. Civil servants must have a legal basis for doing things. They must first seek legal advice and not clean up until November.
When the cleanup operation has a case and the judicial process is completed, the government can quickly clean up other stickers posted in public places in the future.
However, in Lan Ying's eyes, this became a "double standard" "criminal evidence", and the identity of Liu Liqun's husband was dug up, and it became material for the establishment of the camp to launch an attack.
Ma Yue believes that the government should protect its civil servants from political attacks, otherwise even the remaining governance authority will not be able to maintain.
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Ma Yue: The government should protect its own civil servants
From the analysis of the attacker's level, from the deep blue media "helping Hong Kong to speak out" to the direct opening version of the "Ta Kung Pao" held indirectly by the Liaison Office last Saturday (February 27), the levels are significantly different.
What's more, another Wen Wei Po, which is in the same line as Ta Kung Pao, also attacked Liu Yan, another senior civil servant, the Permanent Secretary of the Financial Affairs and Treasury Bureau (Treasury) the day before yesterday (February 28), and questioned him. Wearing a trademark mask made up of "5, 1", "an allusion to the slogan of black violence."
According to analysis by politicians, although this type of attack may not have immediate impact on relevant civil servants, it can constitute a kind of public opinion pressure: first, it can cause relevant people to "spin up", and it will be difficult to advance to the accountability team in the future; As a result, when the government considers the promotion of other civil servants in the future, it "has some fear" and is afraid to promote civil servants whose "political composition is not good enough", so as not to cause trouble again.
Yesterday, Ye Liu Shuyi lamented on the radio program that some people used the "patriots ruling Hong Kong" proposed by the Beijing official to launch a "cultural revolution-style critique", and worried that these personal attacks would dampen the morale of civil servants in the long run and lead to political officials In panic, the government lost talents in vain.
Ma Yue said that the incident was fermented for several days. The first person to speak for Liu Liqun was not the government, but a member of the establishment guild. He believed that if the government did not publicly counter these remarks, even his senior civil servants would not dare to protect it. It has dealt a severe blow to the SAR government's remaining governance authority, and may make some people feel that the government has been "led away by some people."
The staff of the Hospital Authority may be included in the scope of the oath in the future. It is reported that the government is conducting preliminary studies.
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News: The management of public institutions will be included in the oath
In addition, public organizations that use public funds to pay their salaries will also be involved in the next round of politics.
The Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau announced the "Public Service (Election and Appointment) (Miscellaneous Amendments) Bill 2021" last week, stipulating the inclusion of district board members in the scope of oaths and setting out the consequences of breaching oaths. However, it has not dealt with public institutions for the time being. section.
A person familiar with the matter disclosed to "Hong Kong 01" that various government policy bureaus are studying the inclusion of relevant public institutions under the oath.
Among them, the Education Bureau is studying whether to include aided school staff in the scope of "public officials" and sign the oath; the Food and Health Bureau is also studying the requirement for the management of the HA to also swear the oath, and is currently weighing the level of medical staff to which it can be extended.
The two studies are still preliminary, and the specific scope, form, and whether it involves further amendments to the law have not been finalized, but the source made it clear that related topics have been on the government's agenda.
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