New poll and a key fact: how many analyze changing their vote for the VIP Vaccination scandal

Eduardo Paladini

03/01/2021 8:31 AM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 03/01/2021 8:31 AM

The question, direct, synthesizes the great question on which politicians and analysts debate today.

Could the

VIP Vaccination

scandal

influence this year's legislative elections?

More specifically: could the

Frente de Todos

lose votes for this episode?

The consulting firm

Synopsis

has just presented a study that focuses on this central point of the controversy.

And it lights an alert for the ruling party:

about 20%

of those surveyed K said that they are

analyzing to review their decision

for the polls.

The novelty appears in a national survey, of 1,122 cases, between February 23 and 25.

The first question from 

Synopsis

-a consultancy created in 2015, which works for the world of politics and business- was: "

What feeling did

the news

generate

that leaders and friends of officials have been able to access COVID vaccines without managing your turn accordingly? "

It was striking, and an indication of the transversality of the issue, how the general results did not differ too much from the cut by political affinity.

In all cases

, "indignation", "anger", "disgust" prevailed

.

Between the three they collected more than 40% of the responses, both in the general table and among K voters.

Then the study stated: "Do you think it was only about the 70 people that the Government released or do you

think there are more VIP vaccinated

?"

In this case, although there was an opposition bias among the most incredulous, the number of respondents from the Frente de Todos who doubted the official information was also high.

Almost half of this group believes that

"there are many more"

who sneaked into the virtual queue.

And a similar percentage (49%) of those consulted who voted for the Fernándezes in 2019 considered that "

only with the resignation of Ginés González García and the appointment of Carla Vizzotti cannot the credibility

and transparency of the Vaccination Plan

be recovered.

COVID ".

More warning data for the Government:

39.4% of the voters of the Frente de Todos

evaluate

negatively the Vaccination Plan

"regardless of these irregularities."

Then yes, comes the chapter on the electoral impact on the ruling public.

"Would you

evaluate modifying that vote to the Frente de Todos

due to these irregularities in the delivery of vaccines?"

Synopsis

asked

voters K. And divided the results into three large groups.

1) The

"hard core"

, with

54.1%

of the responses, which answered: "I am going to vote again for the Frente de Todos".

2) The

"soft vote"

, with

19.5%

who chose "yes, I would evaluate modifying my vote for this episode",

plus 4.7%

of "don't know / don't answer".

3) And the

"disenchanted"

, prior to the scandal, who added

21.8%

and responded: "I had already decided to change my vote before this episode."

Lucas Romero

, political scientist and director of the consultancy, analyzed the numbers as follows:

- "The episode of the VIP Vaccination is

dangerous for the Government

because it operates on an

emotional level

, the level that has the greatest impact on electoral behavior."

- "The study shows an

absolutely transversal impact

: the words most mentioned by the total of those consulted (" indignation "," anger "and" disgust ") were the same words also most mentioned among the voters of the Frente de Todos , leaving evidence that

the anger transcended the rift

. "

- "From the point of view of public opinion, the episode has

two dimensions of analysis

: the

fact itself

, what is known (the list of 70 vaccinated outside the protocol) and the

fact in the minds of citizens

(how many people believe that they are actually the VIP vaccinated). And the study shows that the majority believe that there are more (11.1%) or many more (70%) ".

- "On the other hand, public opinion

considers that the resignation

of Gines González

is not enough

to regain the confidence and credibility of the vaccination plan, which suggests that the Government should make a greater effort to make the process of granting the immunization more transparent. that good that will continue to be scarce: vaccines. "

- "In electoral terms, when asked about whether this episode could change their vote, almost 20% of the voters of the Frente de Todos indicated that they could evaluate changing their vote for this episode. They are

part of the segment of soft voters

of the ruling party They are the ones who before this episode, if they were asked if today were the elections who would they vote for, they said they would vote for the ruling party but that they still had not absolutely defined it.

Romero clarifies, anyway, that these are

preliminary numbers

, with at least five months ahead until the national PASO.

An eternity for the Argentine reality.

This is what other pollsters who analyzed the issue also alert: they have no doubts about the impact on the image of the Government today, but they do not see so clear that this can hit the ballot box directly.

Clarín advanced this Sunday a work that, although it showed a decrease in the intention of votes of the Frente de Todos, that fall was prior to the scandal.