It's a return to power that could change everything.
By agreeing to participate in the Italian government headed by former director of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi, on February 12, La Ligue, this historic ally of the National Rally, has negotiated an important turn.
Incomparable with that engaged, two years ago, by Marine Le Pen by renouncing in its program any exit from the European Union or any abandonment of the Euro in the short term.
What is happening in Italy, "
it is as if Marine Le Pen called to support Macron, and brought his right arm into the government
», Summarizes one of the elected officials of the League.
A real refocusing, which was not to the taste of all its elected officials, the companion of Marion Maréchal, Vincenzo Sofo, elected in Strasbourg preferred to slam the door of the party to get closer to the nationalists of Fratelli d'Italia.
Read also: Mario Draghi relaunches Italy in the European game
What will be the consequences for the alliance between the National Assembly and the Italian League?
Admittedly, Matteo Salvini sent his friend Marine several Whatsapps on the theme "
don't worry, it doesn't change the organization of our group or our alliance to which I am very attached
."
But does he only have his hand over his future?
This shift is the fruit of months of reflections within the General Staff of the League on the limits of nationalism.
Since the pandemic and the solidarity attitude of Europe, the sovereignist strategy of Matteo Salvini, less and less profitable on the electoral level, sows doubt within his own troops.
"
Europe is now saying what we have been saying for a long time,"
declared loud and clear on October 2, 2020 Giancarlo Giorgetti, number two and strategist of the League.
Austerity is gone, it's about investments and people's needs
.
We must acknowledge that Europe exists, and maintain good relations with its leaders
. ”
Read also: With Matteo Salvini, Marine Le Pen dreams of an alternative in Europe
An assertion that would only be opportunism if it did not reflect the historical soul of the Northern League.
Because “
Giorgetti is the one who, since the 1990s, has maintained relations with local elected officials of the League, entrepreneurs in the North, bankers.
He has always been the presentable and prompt face of the League's dialogue
, ”recounts Lina Palmerini, the political columnist for Il Sole 24 ore.
Now, says Marco Bonet, political journalist of
Corriere del Veneto
"
they,
c
es Northern entrepreneurs or nationalist or protectionist who, in early February, overwhelmingly Giorgetti asked to join the government to direct part of the 209 billion European funds to industry.
"
This turning point therefore marks "
a great return to the origins of the pro-European and federalist Northern League, that of the subcontractors of German industry
", explains historian Giulio Sapelli.
"
To get out of the crisis, we are today ready to take our responsibilities alongside Mario Draghi, whose vision of a Europe which must go into debt to support the productive world inspires us with confidence
", says Giovanni Malanchini, advisor regional League in Lombardy and great defender of territorial identity.
Read also: Mario Draghi relaunches Italy in the European game
It is certainly not the first time that the software of the League moves.
But this time, decodes Federica Valenti of the AGI agency, “
there are indeed two lines at the top which diverge more and more: one, nationalist, statist and sovereignist, with the leader Salvini, its still undisputed leader. .
The other, Europeanist and liberal, with the strategist Giorgetti
. ”
And its center of gravity has shifted from the first to the second.
Also Matteo Salvini, who since 2019 relentlessly requested the convening of early elections, had to give in: "
In such a serious moment, it is better to be where things are decided
", he justified himself yesterday.
But Giancarlo Giorgetti, who is also a friend of Mario Draghi with whom he maintains a real intellectual complicity and reciprocal esteem, has obtained one of the most strategic portfolios for recovery, that of companies.
When Matteo Salvini, who only had under-secretaries of state for his relatives, is reduced to making himself heard to lend himself to the role of the opponent, criticizing some, or demanding the impossible.
To the point that Mario Draghi had to reframe it, reminding him that belonging to the majority, a certain reserve was necessary.
Read also: Marine Le Pen fails to constitute her nationalist "supergroup" in Strasbourg
Will this movement of plate tectonics of the Italian right leave the RN unscathed?
Will the League be able to stay alongside the RN and the German AfD in the European parliamentary group Identity and Democracy (ID)?
Because it is above all due to the personal bond between Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini: "
Matteo's friendship for Marine has become the political line that party executives have suffered, but that will change
", says Marco Bonet du Corriere del Veneto.
In recent months, the conviction has emerged that this friendship has become a trap for the League, "
a deadly embrace
" says historian Giulio Sapelli.
Because the great hopes of a Europe in the hands of the sovereignists who nourished the 2019 campaign, have been seriously undermined.
"
These northern entrepreneurs did not live well
with only 34% of the votes in the Europeans in 2019
, and being the party that won the largest number of seats in the European Parliament, the League did not obtain any committee presidency
," explains Adalberto. Signore by
Il Giornale
.
They realized that belonging to this Identity and Democracy group deprived them of any institutional position, and of any power, and that they are today marginalized in Europe
. ”
The powerful mayor of Verona Lorenzo Fontana, the same one who introduced Marine to Matteo, considers that the League is straying in this friendship.
And Berlusconi does not waste an opportunity to repeat to his ally Salvini that allying with Marine Le Pen is leading him to an impasse.
But above all, says Marco Bonet, "
the entrepreneurs of the North who vote for the League have never understood this alliance with Marine Le Pen, because her nationalism, her obsession with the migration issue, her defense of a strong State and her style. vindictive bristles at the highest point
. "
Giancarlo Giorgetti has been convinced for a long time that we have to get out of it.
First, because the League and the RN do not play in the same category.
"
The League is not a party like that of Le Pen, which has led at most a few French towns
," he explained last October.
We are the first Italian party, we administer with our allies 15 regions, and we have been a true governing party for a long time
. ”
Also, says Lina Palmerini of Il Sole 24 ore, "
Giorgetti has been working undercover for years to bring the League into the European People's Party
".
But it is towards Germany that he looks, towards this Bavaria which made the wealth of northern Italy, and where he maintains an increasingly sustained dialogue with elected officials of the CDU / CSU.
In particular for some time now with the young member of the Bundestag, Marian Wendt on the construction of a Europe of SMEs, the heart of German and Italian manufacturing capitalism.
"
It is a decision which is of course incumbent on the League alone, but it would be a real disappointment because our group is doing a good job within
the European Parliament," RN Hervé Juvin MEP told
Foglio
on 11 February
.
And repeated, as if to be sure to be heard: "
We are very happy to work with our Italian colleagues from the League in the European Parliament
."
If for several months rumors of quarrel have been regularly raised, they are now denied on both sides.
On February 10, the president of the group, the legist Marco Zanni declared on Radio anch'io de Rai Uno: "
Our alliance with the RN is a strong and historic alliance
".
Adding, without much explanation: "
This participation in the government could be a benefit for Marine le Pen
".
The day before, the League voted in Strasbourg for the regulation of the European recovery fund of 750 billion when the elected representatives of the RN continued to abstain, and those of the AfD voted against.
In doing so, it betrayed the statutes of the parliamentary group which expressly reject "
any development towards a European superstate
".
Read also: Can the technocrat, Mario Draghi, become a real head of government?
Do these contradictory votes and this betrayal of principles herald the rupture?
Not necessarily: "
There have always been differences in analysis within the group,"
says its vice-president, RN Nicolas Bay
.
This is the advantage of being a sovereignist: we recognize national specificities.
And it is normal that the Italians voted for the recovery plan of which they are the first beneficiaries.
"David Carretta of Radio Radicale also agrees that"
these parliamentary groups being as opportunist as they are ideological, this turnaround of the League on the European fund will not break it.
At least, he
says,
as long as the League does not manage to integrate another
. "
The fact remains that for the moment the EPP is not ready to welcome the 27 European deputies of the League, even if Berlusconi promised Salvini that he would give them the short ladder.
"
It is important for the CDU / CSU that the League shows its intention to become a true party of the center, that it stops using the populist and anti-European rhetoric of the past years, those particularly inflamed on immigration
", affirmed mi -December Marian Wendt.
The message is clear: what the CDU expects from the League is precisely what will keep it away from the RN.
No more scathing outings against the European technostructure. "
The EPP, which already has so much trouble managing Viktor Orban, does not want to end up with an equally unpredictable Salvini
", decodes David Carretta.
"
The League will have to demonstrate that its transformation is not a simple parenthesis and that it shares the same values, which is likely to take a certain time
", says Adalberto Signore of
Il Giornale
.
In a year, positions will be reallocated to the European Parliament.
We will see if the conversion of the League will have started to convince.
It is within this time horizon that the alliance of the RN with La Ligue will or will not be called into question.
In the middle of the campaign for the presidential elections in France.
But, foresees the historian Giulio Sapelli who knows the number two of the League well, “
Giorgetti, who has never had any particular relationship with Marine Le Pen, will not clash with her.
He's just going to let the relationship rot
. "
However, the sustainability of the alliance will depend closely on the future of the Draghi government: "
If in the coming months, it proves to be effective in crisis management, and makes the best use of European funds, Giorgetti will be comforted by this. the head of the League
”, predicts Lina Palmerini.
And the alliance with Marine Le Pen could be just a bad memory.
If, on the other hand, the Draghi adventure turns into a debacle, that will condemn the experience of refocusing the League.
And Salvini, still today the undisputed leader and who maintains a privileged relationship with the base and the places, will recover the discontented and regain his full leadership.
To the great joy of the leader of the RN, who secretly makes the bet.
But today the games are open.