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Audi, BMW and Co .: In these two areas the Bavarian corporations have to get even better in the future

2021-03-02T13:31:21.037Z


What are the prospects for Bavaria as an automotive location? Well, says a study, when the industry confronts structural change. The crux of the matter is future technologies.


What are the prospects for Bavaria as an automotive location?

Well, says a study, when the industry confronts structural change.

The crux of the matter is future technologies.

Munich - Bavaria with BMW, Audi, MAN and many important suppliers is a car country.

5.8 percent of all employed persons in the Free State depend directly or indirectly on the automobile or - as it is often called today - on the “car cluster”.

But how will that develop in the future?

The more Bavaria faces change with electromobility, automated driving and networking, the better.

This was the result of a study by the employer-related institute IW Consult and the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering and Organization on behalf of the Association of Bavarian Economy (vbw).

Depending on the scenario, an average growth of 6.7 percent per year is possible until 2030.

However, there could also be an annual shrinkage of 1.7 percent on average.

Bavaria's auto industry: great expertise in automation and electric drives

Bavaria cannot achieve the best-case scenario on its own.

It occurs when one's own car loses its social significance and innovative services, i.e. driver service providers or car sharing, increase accordingly.

The researchers Karl Lichtblau, Florian Hermann and Florian Albert speak of the MaaS scenario (MaaS stands for mobility as a service).

In this case there are fewer cars, but they are of higher quality because they are electric and largely automated.

Bavaria is well equipped in these fields.

But even if the development is not in the direction of the MaaS scenario, Bavaria is in a good position.

In this case, too, the greatest increases are achieved in automation and electric drives.

"The Bavarian companies have above-average market shares in the fields in which the highest growth rates are achieved worldwide," says the study.

An average increase of 5.5 percent is then to be expected by 2030.

But Bavaria could go a step further here by picking up the pace when switching to future technologies.

In the “Bavaria is a pioneer” scenario, the effort is rewarded with an average growth of 6.3 percent.

"There is a clear message for the Bavarian auto cluster: A faster change to electrified and highly automated vehicles leads to higher market volumes", according to the study.

Auto industry in Bavaria: Will the drive mix remain the same in the future?

Unlikely

But you can also do it differently: The drive mix remains the same and the current state of automation is also frozen.

The study authors describe such a development as “not very realistic” under the motto “Bavaria will stand still”.

The scenario "is not intended to describe a vision for the future, but on the contrary show how high the costs of a refused structural change would be".

The researchers forecast a mere 2.6 percent more per year.

But you can also fall back.

The authors of the study also considered a scenario in which Bavaria would lose 40 percent of its global market share by 2030.

Then the Bavarian auto cluster will suffer a decline of 1.7 percent on average year after year.

Autonomous driving will probably not be suitable for the masses in 2030 either

The study is an update to a two-year-old paper that has already analyzed the automotive megatrends and is now updating them.

"The results show that the environment has become more difficult," says vbw Managing Director Bertram Brossardt.

However, Bavaria continues to benefit from the fact that Bavarian companies are more focused on the growing segments.

"However, this is not a position in which we can rest," warns Brossardt.

It is not to be expected that the whole world will be electrically powered by 2030 and that the driver can take a nap in the meantime.

The study assumes that the number of battery electric cars produced worldwide will increase from 1.5 to 22.4 million cars by 2030.

But more than twice as many - 56.2 million - new cars with internal combustion engines are still driving.

And the market share of cars that don't need a driver has risen to 1.5 percent, according to the study.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-03-02

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