In Mainz, red-green-yellow rules - and according to surveys on the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate, it can stay that way.
The SPD will still crash.
On
March 14
, the state election in 2021 takes place in
Rheinland-Pfalz
instead.
Surveys show high popularity ratings for the incumbent SPD
Prime Minister
.
The election forecasts suggest that there could be a close race between the CDU and the SPD.
Update from February 25, 10:30 a.m.:
A head-to-head race is emerging before the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate.
A survey published on February 25 by the Infratest dimap institute for the SWR shows that the gap between the ruling SPD of Prime Minister Malu Dreyer and the opposition CDU is small.
The CDU of Dreyer challenger Christian Baldauf is currently 31 percent - and thus still ahead.
The SPD follows directly with 30 percent.
Only one percentage point difference.
The CDU has lost two percentage points since mid-January, while the Social Democrats gained two percentage points.
The Greens cut in the forecast weaker than in the previous month and would currently be 12 percent.
A minus of three percentage points.
The FDP achieved seven percent and thus a gain of one percentage point.
And the left remains stable at three percent and is thus still below the five percent hurdle.
This creates the following picture: According to the polls, the - currently ruling - traffic light coalition of the SPD, FDP and the Greens would still have a majority in the Mainz parliament.
Institute |
date |
SPD |
CDU |
AfD |
FDP |
Green |
The left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infratest dimap / SWR |
02/25/2021 |
30th |
31 |
9 |
7th |
12 |
3 |
4th |
INSA / image |
02/23/2021 |
31 |
33 |
9 |
6th |
12 |
3 |
3 |
ZDF political barometer |
02/05/2021 |
31 |
33 |
7th |
5 |
13th |
4th |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
01/14/2021 |
28 |
33 |
8th |
6th |
15th |
3 |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
12/10/2020 |
28 |
34 |
9 |
5 |
15th |
3 |
6th |
INSA / image |
October 21, 2020 |
27 |
33 |
10 |
5 |
14th |
5 |
6th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
09/10/2020 |
26 |
34 |
9 |
6th |
17th |
4th |
4th |
State election 2016 |
03/13/2016 |
36.2 |
31.8 |
12.6 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
2.8 |
7th |
Update from February 24th, 2.30 p.m.:
A new survey from February 23rd shows: The SPD has narrowed its distance to the CDU.
The ruling SPD is currently 31 percent, the CDU 33 percent.
According to the
survey by the opinion research institute Insa - commissioned by
Bild
- the Greens have lost two percentage points of approval and are now 12 percent - compared to the previous month (January 23).
FDP (6 percent), Left (3 percent) and AfD (9 percent) remain unchanged.
The research group Wahlen made a similar prognosis for ZDF at the beginning of February.
According to the polls, Prime Minister Malu Dreyer's red-yellow-green coalition would still have a majority.
State election 2021 in Rhineland-Palatinate: polls see CDU ahead - Malu Dreyer is still popular
First report from January 29th, 9:40 a.m .:
Mainz - For Prime Minister
Malu Dreyer (SPD)
the omens look good.
The state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate * will take place on March 14th in 2021.
The
polls
indicate that this time the CDU will be the strongest force in the state parliament and thus overtake the Social Democrats.
For the
traffic light coalition
, with which Malu Dreyer rules, there should still be a majority again.
Since the last state election, the balance of power between several parties has shifted.
A slight gain for the CDU * contrasts with a significant loss for the SPD *.
The polls for the RLP state election 2021 also show the great gains of the Greens, which have now clearly
overtaken
the
AfD
*.
The FDP should manage to return to the Mainz state parliament, while
Die Linke
* is expected to be below the 5 percent hurdle.
Surveys on the 2021 state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate
For all eligible voters who would like to compare the positions of the parties before the election, there is again the Wahl-O-Mat Rheinland-Pfalz *, which offers assistance.
State election forecasts for Rhineland-Palatinate show several possible coalitions
The SPD is predicted to lose around eight percentage points.
A new edition of the
coalition
of SPD, Greens and FDP * is still possible.
In the case of Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *, the election researchers see a gain of around ten percentage points.
In principle, according to the
forecasts
for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate,
black-green-yellow is also
possible.
But there is no mood of change in the state.
The
ruling parties
appeared at the beginning of the election year emphasizes satisfied with the cooperation.
Christian Baldauf
, the top candidate of the
CDU
, is therefore not the top favorite for the office of Prime Minister.
After the RLP state election, he must hope
to bring the
Greens
and
FDP together
in a new coalition.
Finally, there is still the possibility that the election result will differ significantly from the forecasts.
If the two obvious coalitions of three parties do not work out, a
GroKo
remains the
stopgap
solution.
If the CDU and SPD then form a coalition, Baldauf would probably replace Dreyer as the candidate of the strongest party.
Popularity of the top candidates: This is what the polls for the RLP 2021 state election say
When it comes to the
top candidates
, the incumbent Prime Minister again has the
popularity ratings
on her side. This was shown again in January 2021 in a survey by SWR on the occasion of the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate. In the opinion of the top candidates of the parties, Malu Dreyer achieved the best value by a large margin. 71 percent of those surveyed were satisfied or very satisfied with the incumbent. With Christian Baldauf it was only 33 percent.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network
