03/04/2021 23:13
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 03/04/2021 11:15 PM
The public appearances of Alberto Fernández and this Thursday of Cristina Kirchner filled investors with concern and made one version grow:
that they do not want to close an agreement with the IMF.
Cristina torpedoed the negotiation with her proposal to investigate the Fund and Mauricio Macri.
The vice, in the trial, sought the centrality of the political leadership of the Frente de Todos and
show unlimited influence in the Casa Rosada.
Alberto -in turn- generated all the doubts with something he had never done before: align himself completely
with Cristina's extreme positions.
For her part, Cristina spoke several times with Martín Guzmán.
But his first economic interlocutor is Axel Kicillof, who was frustrated at the Palacio de Hacienda: he was the
creator of the “Plan Bomba”.
Both issues were discussed among investors.
On Tuesday he was fleshed out at the UIA.
Miguel Acevedo, his boss, transmitted it:
"There is fear of greater statism."
Confidential reports from Wall Street "wolves" also set off alarms.
A dozen circulated in Manhattan:
stocks fell and country risk rose.
JP Morgan warned of the impact on reserves.
This was stated: "In these political conditions, a greater surplus
does not always mean greater nearby reserves
.
"
Another memo from “BTG” was lapidary: “Fernández,
against the wall
, will be completely aligned with Kirchnerism, which will guide the decisions”.
Guzmán, in the last days, had to deploy an action to
minimize the collateral damage
of the words of Cristina and Alberto.
The minister conveyed to businessmen the following:
Argentina is going to seek an agreement with the IMF.
Guzmán insists that
Alberto supports the strategy
and Cristina accepts that it would be the best way to stabilize the economy.
Cristina and Guzmán had several encounters.
The minister even secretly traveled to El Calafate for an in-depth dialogue with the vice.
That approach generates
internal struggles
with Kicillof.
Cristina told him that
she does not want any adjustment in the election year
and is obsessed with the criminal complaint against the IMF.
She was the driving force behind the move.
But the minister argues that without an agreement with the IMF,
the stability of the dollar could evaporate
and an eventual electoral victory
could
disappear.
For Guzmán, Mauricio Macri did not lose the elections due to the increase in rates.
That was the vice president's theory.
The minister has another reading: Macri lost reelection
due to the exchange rate run and its inflationary impact.
Guzmán maintains that to maintain the "pax" with the dollar, he must close with the IMF.
So he says: "
There are no dollars to pay the IMF."
And without dollars it will be difficult to compete electorally.
On Thursday night, Guzmán gave another sign of rationality: he already has a date and closed meetings in Washington.
The mission to the United States will be on March 22, 23 and 24.
Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, waits in the United States for Martín Guzmán.
AFP photo
He will have a summit with Kristalina Georgieva and meetings with IMF bureaucrats.
But so far the key meeting with Janet Yellen, the new head of the Treasury, is not closed.
Julie Kozak and Luis Cubeddu –the auditors– are concerned and accuse Argentina of not having advanced in the technical negotiation with the Fund.
Both made a memo, in which they say that Economy officials
do not provide data and less an economic stabilization program.
As
Clarín
advanced
, there are four substantial differences between Argentina and the IMF: fiscal path;
monetary program;
reserve plan and the dollar gap.
In other words: no consistent technical agreement.
Guzmán - according to what they say on Wall Street - would go to Washington with two concrete proposals.
It would be
a plan agreed between Alberto, Cristina and the minister.
Plan "A" would seek
a light agreement with the IMF.
An agreement that allows you to reschedule payments
to 10 years
, but without many commitments on the part of the Casa Rosada.
Plan “B” would be bolder:
not to enter into an agreement, but to seek
a political agreement to postpone for a time the strong maturities
that Argentina has this year with the IMF and the Paris Club.
This "alibi" excites Cristina: in short, she aims to
reach the elections without adjustments
in the economy.
And it would be a specialty of the Argentine government and politics: to postpone the resolution of the problems and not to stop the fall in the slide of the economy.
The idea, however, faces problems: many directors of the IMF are
exhausted from the “gambits”
of Argentina.
The vice president was the ideological author of the complaint against Macri and the IMF.
Cristina began to elaborate it in November, when she was looking for someone to blame for the exchange run that shook the Casa Rosada.
The dollar reached 195 pesos.
He consulted economists and said:
"We must accuse the Fund and Macri."
The "wolves" of Manhattan consider that the complaint
"is smoke"
and that Alberto accepted the political initiative
to build an electoral narrative.
Also, to try to remove the scandal of the "VIP vaccines" from the scene.
The head of the IMF is calm: in short, she imputes Donald Trump and Christine Lagarde, who no longer inhabit Washington.
But the complaint opens other problems.
The Casa Rosada, when questioning the loan, also accuses those who approved the loans in Washington: the entire IMF board, and unanimously.
In other words: to all the directors of the powerful G-7, who
will
be the ones who
will decide whether to accept Guzmán's proposals or to let go
of the Casa Rosada.
The loans to Macri were promoted by Trump, but voted unanimously in the IMF board.
Guzmán plans - in addition to Washington - to travel to Germany, France, England, Spain, Italy and Asia.
According to Alberto's complaint, the delegates of those countries at the IMF
would also be responsible for
the illegal credit.
Cristina Kirchner, in her Senate office before declaring for the future dollar cause.
Cristina was excited because, for a year, two areas of the IMF have been evaluating the failure of the Macri plan.
One is the Independent Evaluation Office audit.
And the other is led by the economist Odd Per Brekk and is binding on the current negotiation.
Macri received the news at his home, along with two friends.
Alberto finished the speech and the three decided to go, carefree, to have lunch in San Isidro.
Several advisers to the former president insist with a backlash: demand that
Justice
also
investigate the "express agreement" that Axel Kicillof signed with the Paris Club
and where - the now governor - agreed to increase the debt in one day by a whopping
3,700 million of dollars.
Kicillof suggests that Cristina implement a
"float plan" until the elections
.
Similar to the one that failed during his ministerial administration.
This Thursday, both tried to defend themselves against the "future dollar" accusation.
Cristina wronged Justice and used her central thesis: there is a plot against her.
He did not say anything concrete about the cause.
Neither of the two expert opinions that exist in the file.
Those works say that the BCRA sold dollars at 10.50 pesos, when in the official New York market it was trading at 14.50.
A 38% business in the act.
The BCRA broke all the future dollar sales records: they were
17,000 million dollars.
Some believe that the operation is not punishable.
That it was a political decision.
But - if so - Cristina said goodbye to the Casa Rosada with an excellent deal:
in favor of bankers and speculators
, who in her story say they are fighting.
Look also
YPF's crisis worsens: it lost US $ 1,098 million and its sales in pesos sank
Future dollar: Cristina Kirchner charged against Macri's economists and one of them responded