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What science says about the prohibition of the 8-M demonstration in Madrid

2021-03-05T01:40:40.225Z


Experts agree that any agglomeration carries risk and recall the high rate of infections that the Community still has, but opinions are divided as to the viability of the march


On Sunday March 7 and Monday March 8 there will be no demonstrations for International Women's Day.

The Government Delegation in Madrid has banned them for “public health reasons”.

The possibility of more than 60,000 attendees moving through the streets is calculated and the decision has been made based on the accumulated incidence of the region -253 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days-, which, together with Ceuta and Melilla, are the only three territories that remain above what the Ministry of Health marks as extreme risk, 250. Is this decision contradictory with the activity that the rest of the areas in the community maintain?

How much risk is there in an outdoor gathering?

What does science say?

The risk

"If things were only according to science, we would all be at home," says epidemiologist Fernando García, from the Madrid Public Health Association (Amasap).

Rafael M. Ortí, president of the Spanish Society of Preventive Medicine, Public Health and Hygiene (Sempsph), adds: “Regardless of the reason, an agglomeration generates a risk of contagion.

If they can be done while maintaining a certain distance, it is more feasible, but it does not seem very feasible in a demonstration ”.

Although not all crowds pose the same danger.

García refers to the range established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States, which "generally discourages social gatherings" and marks four degrees according to the risk of spreading the covid.

The "lowest risk" is virtual activities.

“More risk” corresponds to face-to-face meetings with few people, in the open air, between people from different homes, with a mask, in which objects are not shared, a safety distance of two meters is maintained and the participants come from the same area , that is, from the same neighborhood, town, city or county.

The next, "highest risk", is when the concentrations are medium in size but adapted to allow a separation of at least two meters and attendees come from outside that area.

And the "greatest risk" are large meetings where it is difficult to maintain a safe distance and people do not belong to the same territorial nucleus.

The circumstances of 8-M would be within the two highest risk levels set by the CDC, says García: “Let's imagine that people come from outside Madrid, or Madrid capital from Collado Villalba, with 405 accumulated incidence, the highest of all community".

Although the transmission of the virus is high throughout the territory, "there are places with much more than others and it must also be taken into account to assess the risk and it would be necessary to see if it can be harmonized in a favorable way to health".

Can you control the danger?

The Amasap spokesperson refers to the demonstrations of the Black Lives Matter movement last summer in the United States: “They advised keeping a safe distance and that the march be by bubble groups, of cohabiters, not to mix, not to yell at each other, of course the masks and that they did not go if they had symptoms ”.

The result?

García points to a study in which infection rates were analyzed in the three weeks after the protests with two groups.

One in a city where there were demonstrations and a control one, the one that was closest by population size and incidence in week 0, from which they started.

"They found that in the manifestations there had been an increase in cases compared to the control group, but quite small, so they consider that these manifestations increased the risk, but that increase was relatively minor," explains García.

And he adds: “Can it be assumed that there is danger?

With measures they can be minimized, but there is never zero risk ”.

The problem, Ortí adds, is that for concentrations like these to occur "there should be a very strict control and a behavior that is very adjusted to the prevention rules", but "although 90% of the people do it well, even if they do it well 99%, 1% can cause everything to break and we already know where it takes us ”.

Madrid, remember, "continues to have a very high incidence", and from Public Health it is not recommended: "We are close to lowering the accumulated incidence and close to optimal coverage with the vaccine, I would not risk it."

Why some yes and others no?

In the last year, in the community there have been denialist demonstrations and against the Celáa law, caceroladas, a neo-fascist march in tribute to the fallen of the Blue Division or protests against the withdrawal of the feminist mural in Ciudad Lineal.

"The difference, why some yes and others not, may be due to the possible magnitude that it can reach, thinking that this, unlike the rest, could be massive, although they were convened in a decentralized way precisely to avoid crowds", he says the epidemiologist Pedro Gullón.

Until this Thursday, it was expected that there would be marches of less than 500 people, spread over different areas, and provided that security measures were met.

Although it seems “complicated” to control the people who come, “it is not so much to look at it from the punitive point of view but from the understanding of the population of what to do”.

He believes that the decision can have the opposite effect: “Authorized and with enough space, people can comply with the distance.

If it is prohibited, there is nothing cut off from traffic, and people leave the same, they will crowd together in less space ”.

For Ortí the question is whether the rest should have been recommended and insists on what is already "clear evidence": "Distance and avoid closed places."

He adds that, although the demonstration is outdoors, "the situation may occur before or after those who attend gather in closed spaces, there is no one to control it and there is more risk."

Madrid, despite being the autonomy that has suffered the most from the blow of the pandemic, is the one that has imposed the most lax measures: it has never completely closed the hotel industry or banned interiors and there have been events such as the Raphael concert in December, in which 4,368 spectators attended with a 25% capacity, at the Wizink Center.

Now, the Executive of Isabel Díaz Ayuso is the only one who has taken a position against perimeter the communities at Easter and the curfew from 22:00 to 6:00.

The Community line has always been aimed at activating the least possible restrictions.

These circumstances are "incoherent," Ortí, García and Gullón agree.

The latter wonders if "it makes sense to prohibit a demonstration outside, regulated, and keep the interiors of bars open": "A single bar does not have a super contagious effect, but many bars with a dozen people inside each one do entail a risk".

In any case, Ortí concludes, "the consistent thing is to always adopt the measures that are recommended by science and with which the least possible risk is run."

The political tint

Experts agree that the March 8 demonstration has a political tinge that cannot be ignored.

While the Minister of Health Carolina Darias already said last week that due to epidemiological circumstances "the march did not take place", the Minister of Equality Irene Montero alleged this Thursday a "criminalization" of the feminist movement.

In the Community, it has been the Government Delegation that has prohibited the concentration;

Its manager, José Manuel Franco, argued that 104 demonstrations had been called and explained that the decision responds to reports from the police and medical organizations.

Last week, the Deputy Minister of Public Health Antonio Zapatero, along the same lines, affirmed to agree with Darias: “The situation of the Community is not for demonstrations.

Any demonstration, no matter where it comes from and whatever it is, we believe that this is not the time ”.

The epidemiologist Pedro Gullón believes that this is covered by a mixture of "politics and machismo" and assures that "he does not understand why in Madrid and not in other places where it can also be massive, such as Catalonia": "In recent weeks the speed of The decline has slowed down and in some neighboring countries it has begun to rise, it would not be unusual for a change in trend and for the fourth wave to be blamed, as is done before it occurs, on the feminist movement, as the 8-M last year of the first one ”.

For him, "the balance that must be made is with other rights, if they are more or less essential activities, and claiming fundamental rights is a basic right."

For Fernando García, "the matter is very politically charged and it is difficult to get things clear."

The demonstration, he says, "is still a fundamental right and if the risk can be minimized, the prohibition is disproportionate."

Rafael Ortí recalls how last March 8 “political interference in the taking of sanitary measures was seen for the first time”;

believes that the danger was not well evaluated at the time and that this "had an impact on the increase in infections", to a greater or lesser degree.

"Politicians are beginning to be advised by technicians, and those who know are aware that this will lead to an increase in cases," says Ortí, who believes that "it is dangerous to authorize an event of this type at the moment in which we meet".

Information about the coronavirus

- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic

- Restrictions search engine: What can I do in my municipality?

- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in the world

- Download the tracking application for Spain

- Guide to action against the disease

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-03-05

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