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A Myanmar soldier guards an arrested person during a demonstration against the March 3rd military coup in Mandalay
Photo: STR / AFP
SPIEGEL:
Measured against their own bad standards, Myanmar's security forces acted with a certain degree of restraint in the first four weeks after the coup.
That is clearly over, dozens of demonstrators have been shot in the past few days.
What are the new marching orders?
Horsey:
I don't know any details of the rules of engagement, but the level of violence has increased significantly since Sunday.
Previously there had been isolated cases of fatal violence, but no attempt was made to completely suppress the protests.
What we see now looks like a concerted effort by the security forces to do just that.
Not only have protests been violently broken up, there have also been targeted killings of refugees.
In at least one case, someone was shot after being arrested.
SPIEGEL:
What kind of troops are now being sent to the cities?
Horsey:
The 77th and 99th Light Infantry Divisions are in the streets of Yangon and Mandalay.
These are shock troops from the front, which are normally sent into the most serious armed conflicts.
This is what they are trained for, they are used to it.
They were involved in the atrocities against the Rohingya.
The violence does not only come from the military, but also from the police, who are equipped with assault rifles and use them.
Within the police there are so-called security battalions, which are police officers ready to fight who perform police tasks, for example in the areas of ethnic minorities.
“We saw a lot of headshots.
This is not the use of a weapon as a last resort. "
SPIEGEL:
None of this sounds like police work, but rather like war.
What's the strategy?
Horsey:
Many local people now call the cities a war zone.
The difference is that in a war the other side is also armed and militarily trained.
Here we have a completely different situation: the demonstrators are peaceful and have no weapons, but perhaps a garbage can lid made of thin sheet metal as a protective shield;
at most they erect barricades and throw back tear gas grenades that have been fired at them.
What is the strategy?
As far as I can see, it consists of killing randomly selected people in order to keep the rest of them from further protests.
We saw a lot of headshots.
This is not a last resort weapon.
SPIEGEL:
What is the cause of the generals' enormous miscalculation?
Did you really believe that people would just accept a coup and the removal of their icon Aung San Suu Kyi?
Horsey:
According to their own statements, the generals expected protests and that they would have to arrest some people.
However, they assumed that they would be able to enforce their authority relatively easily and quickly and then devote themselves to their political agenda, such as attracting foreign direct investment and the fight against Corona.
That sounds ridiculous today, but that seems to have been their working hypothesis.
SPIEGEL:
How did the military come up with that?
Horsey:
Remember that today's leading generals started their careers at a time when the military ruled Myanmar.
Even then, the vast majority of people rejected the military government, and yet it managed to get its way.
I think that is where the army command's confidence comes from.
SPIEGEL:
Do you know of divisions within the military?
Is there any group of generals who could stop the other?
Horsey:
Of course there are different personalities with different points of view.
But historically, the Myanmar military is an institution with a strong internal cohesion.
We can only draw limited conclusions about the present from the past, because the military is currently facing what is probably the greatest test of its history.
Still, I think we shouldn't expect a split.
SPIEGEL:
The putschist leader Min Aung Hlaing is talking about wanting to preserve the constitution, promising a "disciplined multi-party democracy."
At least initially, the military seems to have had in mind to give their rule a tinge of democracy.
What will the country look like if the military prevails?
Horsey:
You see, Myanmar is divided along many lines: ethnically, religiously, socially.
But on the question of whether the military should rule the country, the population is remarkably unanimous - the answer is an almost universal no.
The Myanmares have now had ten years of tentative liberalization.
The younger protesters in particular grew up with relative openness and freedom.
SPIEGEL:
People are angry.
They will hardly come to terms with a military government.
"The generals will be forced to take a route of brutal repression."
Horsey:
Assuming the military sticks together, it's hard to imagine how the generals could be overthrown.
On the other hand, it is just as unlikely that they can consolidate their power and give the country anything like a semblance of normalcy or a functioning government when the entire population is against them.
Initially, whether they wanted it or not, the generals will be forced to use brutal repression to keep the troubled public under control.
Everything points to an extremely repressive form of rule - as in the past dark decades of authoritarianism in Myanmar.
SPIEGEL:
What can the United States and other democratic countries do to help the demonstrators in Myanmar?
Horsey:
The fate of Myanmar will be decided in Myanmar.
Of course, this does not mean that the outside world should remain inactive, even if it will hardly have any significant influence on the events on site.
No country should hastily give legitimacy to the coup or recognize the representatives of this military regime.
It is also important that the UN Security Council remains involved and vigilant on the matter.
SPIEGEL:
What about sanctions, such as an arms embargo?
"Myanmar doesn't have to buy ammunition or handguns from anyone, because the military makes them itself."
Horsey:
Because of the different interests of its members, the Security Council is unlikely to bring about a comprehensive arms embargo.
But the stricter the bilateral controls that withhold surveillance technology, software or drones from the generals, the better.
However, Myanmar does not have to buy ammunition or handguns from anyone because the military makes them itself.
So even an arms embargo would not necessarily cut it off from the means of repression it needs.
SPIEGEL:
What role does the big neighbor China play?
Horsey:
Beijing was obviously taken by surprise by the coup and is not happy about it.
Instability in Myanmar is bad for China's border security and for Chinese investment.
In addition, Beijing has learned that there is a much stronger anti-Chinese sentiment in the military than was the case in the elected government.
That said, I doubt China will raise its concerns in the Security Council and other multilateral fora.
In the end, China will work with whoever is in charge of Myanmar.
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