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The risk of a fourth wave rises: mobility increases and variant B.1.1.7 extends

2021-03-06T01:04:29.447Z


The telephony data says that we move more, while the cases with the most transmissible mutations increase. In the Kiko Llaneras newsletter


Hello.

After last week's dose of optimism, today I write with data to remain on guard.


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Mobility has increased in Spain for a month.

This is shown by the data of 12 million mobile phones, which the company

KIDO Dynamics

uses to calculate a mobility radius that measures how far we are from home.

In January the average fell to 55% or 60% of normal before the pandemic, but since February it has risen again.

Now it exceeds 70% and our activity is close to that of December, when the third wave rose.

Average mobility in Spain, according to mobile phone data processed by KIDO Dynamics

This increase in travel is also observed in data from Apple and Google.

And we know that these increases in mobility usually mean more contacts and a higher probability of infections.

But are they risk levels?

Alberto Hernando de Castro, from KIDO dynamics, thinks so.

They have observed that there is a critical level around 70% of the mobility radius: hospitalizations and deaths tend to increase two to three weeks after this threshold is exceeded.

And vice versa, the virus regresses, normally, when mobility drops below 70%.

The following graph compares the evolution of the mobility radius with deaths from covid (shifted three weeks so that the axes coincide).

The effect of the first confinement is very clear, which brought deaths to almost zero.

Then came a second wave that rose slowly in the summer, when mobility was almost normal.

But the most interesting moment is the third wave: the movements began to rise at the end of November and passed 70% the first week of December —before Christmas—, which coincides with a death peak three weeks later.

Now mobility is increasing in almost all communities.

In the following graphs you can see four examples, Madrid, Catalonia, Castilla y LeĂłn and Murcia.

What can we conclude from these data?

They say two things quite clearly: that mobility is increasing - we are making more trips or going further - and that it is approaching levels that in the past coincided with an expansion of the virus.

However, that 70% threshold is not a mathematical law.

Although there will be a level of contacts that will make contagions grow exponentially, (1) we do not know precisely what it will be, (2) it is not deterministic —it depends on chance—, and (3) it will have been changing.

That threshold will have been raised when we learned to protect ourselves better, wearing a mask or choosing terraces, for example.

It will also go up if the weather is good or as the number of immune people increases.

But not all are good news.

The advance of variant B.1.1.7 detected in the United Kingdom, being more contagious, puts pressure in the opposite direction: a level of mobility capable of stopping the virus in its previous forms could be insufficient now.

This variant has been able to penetrate Spain despite the restrictions.

It will soon be the dominant one.

According to Health data, although they are still approximate, there are eight communities where it already accounts for half of the cases: Madrid (50%), Andalusia (51%), Galicia (53%), Navarra (52%), Asturias (64% ), Balearic Islands (65%), Cantabria (76%) and Catalonia (76%).

In other countries we have already seen “double epidemics”.

In January the total cases fell, but at the same time the new variants were growing with a slow exponential.

Now they are the dominant in France and have changed the general trend with a rebound.

It is clearly seen in this graph of France, by John Burn-Murdoch.

And in Denmark.

Is this happening in Spain?

It's hard to tell because the variant data is still somewhat fragmentary, but it's possible: “It may be happening, a wave within a wave.

It is a sign that if we lift according to what measures, the cases will be triggered and we will enter the situation in France, "Iñaki Comas, a CSIC biologist dedicated to sequencing covid for months, tells me.

We know that the variant has been extended in January.

In Madrid, the cases of B.1.1.7 grew in absolute numbers, although now they seem flat.

The question is whether the variant continues to expand.

In Asturias it has gone from 36% to 64% in the week of February 22 to 28, when the incidence fell by only 16%, which would imply an increase in cases.

At the moment there are no increases in cases or income, but a slowdown in their decreases.

This is what is seen, at the moment, in the ministry's data.

In the following graph, on a logarithmic scale, it can be seen that there are places where the descent is no longer a straight line, but rather slows down, as happens in Aragon, Asturias or Castilla y LeĂłn.

This means that the reproductive number (R) grows, although it is still less than one, because the most transmissible variant increases the contact between people or gains weight.

They are not the only reasons for concern:

  • In Asturias, which offers very deep data, there are spikes in cases in some health areas.

  • In the data for the Community of Madrid, income has also stagnated: it is no longer falling, as shown in SaĂșl Ares, from the National Center for Biotechnology.

  • Another sign in Madrid is the analysis of wastewater, which has been detecting an increase in the virus for a week.

    There are several areas in "strong ascent", such as Vallecas, VicĂĄlvaro or Boadilla.

  • The predictions of the precov2 project, led by JosĂ© L. Aznarte of the Department of Artificial Intelligence of the UNED, say that there are possible rallies in Lleida, Ourense, Asturias and a dozen other provinces.

In summary, these data do not show that a fourth wave is rising, nor that there will necessarily be rallies.

But it is a fact that mobility is increasing and that variant B.1.1.7 has penetrated into Spain, which increases the risk.

This week I have spoken with half a dozen experts, between academics and technicians, and they all think that the rebound is a certain possibility against which we must remain very alert.

2. 🏙 The rhythm of vaccines

In the last two weeks the rate of vaccination has increased, from putting doses to 1% of people every week, we have gone to 1.6% in the last days and the trend seems to be increasing.

It can be seen in the data from Our World in Data.

The rate has to continue to increase, however, if we are to vaccinate 70% of adults before the end of the summer.

Last Sunday we did the calculations and it is necessary that doses are administered to 4% of the population each week.

Vaccination scenario in Spain if the dose administration rate increases to the current rate in the US (3.1% of the population receives a dose every week).

3. 💉 A random emoji

The syringe symbol is going to have its blood removed: it was used to “donate”, but it is not ideal to represent vaccines.

Are we facing a case of public service semiotics?

The syringe emoji before and after the change

  • There are other precedents for changes.

    Apple's

    Random

    Ingredient Paella

    , which was corrected in 2017 đŸ„˜;

    the hamburger with the cheese underneath, which the CEO of Google changed in 2018 🍔;

    or the pistol gun đŸ”«, which became a toy.

  • There is also a debate: these symbols are changed by companies, which with their decision alter the public debate, even if it is little.

Can you help us?

Forward this newsletter to your contacts or tell them to sign up here.

You can write me with clues or comments to my email: kllaneras@elpais.es 📬.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-03-06

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