Carlos Galvan
03/07/2021 21:47
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 03/07/2021 21:47
Thanks to the opening of ordinary sessions of Congress, senators from the ruling party who had not seen each other personally
for almost a year
had the opportunity to chat again in private.
In that
face to face
, a review of the electoral scenario was made.
And what emerged there put
the handful of those present
on
alert
: the conclusion was that the bloc that Cristina Kirchner leads runs the risk of
losing the majority
in the Senate, just one of the greatest strengths of the Government.
At present, the block of the Frente de Todos (FdT) has 41 senators (although in fact there are 40, due to the license of the Tucuman José Alperovich, accused of rape).
In this year's legislative elections, the ruling party
puts 15 seats at stake
.
There are provinces in which Kirchnerism rules out that it will prevail and, thus, will retain its two seats for the majority.
This is the case of La Pampa, Tucumán and Catamarca.
In these last two provinces in the ruling party they discount that their four Peronist senators (Alperovich,
Beatriz Merkin
,
Inés Blas
and
Dalmacio Mera
) will not be able to renew their mandates and that they will be replaced.
Gustavo Valdés, governor of the province of Corrientes.
He will seek to keep the two majority seats for the Senate.
In Mendoza, it is taken for granted that the FdT will retain the minority bank and that the Cristinista Anabel Fernández Sagasti
will seek her re-election
.
The scenario in Mendoza suggests that Juntos por el Cambio will preserve its two seats.
The
dangerous
scenario
is in the other four provinces -Chubut, Corrientes, Santa Fe and Córdoba-, where the FdT will put 8 seats into play.
The riskiest scenario is that of Chubut, where the ruling party will surely lose at least one senator.
It is that product of
those oddities of the Creole politics
, the Peronism has the three seats of the Senate by that province, the two of the majority and also the one of the minority.
In the best possible scenario, the FdT would be left with two senators and JxC with the third.
But the problem is that the election in that Patagonian province appears very complex due to the worn-out management of Governor Mariano Arcioni.
In the sand table exercises carried out by the ruling party
, the possibility of losing two senators is
directly
evaluated
.
"We are very complicated and on top of that they -for Juntos por el Cambio- have a good candidate," they say in the Peronism of Chubut.
Although he has not yet announced his candidacy, the versions indicate that the radical
Gustavo Menna will
lead the ballot for the Senate.
"We aspire to recover a bench, but we will fight for both," they warn in JxC.
The candidacies of the Frente de Todos are not defined either.
It is known that
Alfredo Luenzo
seeks to renew his bank.
The same as the cristinista
Nancy González
.
The third Peronist for Chubut,
Mario Pais, has
already announced inside the bloc that he is retiring from politics.
In an election in which victory is not assured, who is at the top of the list will be key.
From La Cámpora, they are also looking for deputy
Santiago Igón to
fight for a seat in the Senate.
In Corrientes, the outlook also looks complicated for the ruling party.
The terms of the camper
Ana Claudia Almirón
and
Carlos “Camau” Espínola expire
.
But that province is governed by the radical Gustavo Valdés, who will seek his re-election this year and also keep the two majority seats in the Senate.
“We are going to try to win the election.
It is feasible, although in recent times we have not managed to win the legislative elections ”, they confided near the president.
If successful, Kirchnerism will lose a senator.
In Santa Fe the end looks completely open.
The Frente de Todos puts into play the benches of
María de los Ángeles Sacnun
and
Roberto Mirabella
, who answers to Governor Omar Perotti.
The outcome of the election is so uncertain that the Frente de Todos could keep its two senators, elect only one (and lose the other) or directly elect none (and lose two).
It is that there the electoral dispute
will be between three forces
: the Progressive Front (of the former socialist governor Miguel Lifschitz), Together for Change and the Front of All.
“There is no chance of not putting in a single senator. But if you lose one ”, they
grant in the provincial government.
“It is going to be a very difficult election, but we have an advantage: our chances grow depending on what the opposition does.
If Lifschitz does not appear, we could keep the two senators ”, they complete.
Córdoba is the fourth district that appears as a great question.
In We do for Córdoba, the strength of Governor Juan Schiaretti, and in the Frente de Todos agree on the same diagnosis: that JxC will retain its two senators for the majority.
The opposition alliance has yet to decide who will head the ballot.
"I am going to be a candidate for senator,"
Luis Juez
pointed out to
Clarín
.
And he added: "Since 2003 our force, the Civic Front, has at least one senator."
He has not yet announced what he will do, but Judge could have a compelling rival in front, the radical Mario Negri, who from the UCR is “asked” to appear.
In radicalism, they flatly rule out the possibility of the party giving up the head of the lists for the Senate and Deputies.
The candidacy would be defined in the STEP.
In general, we do for Córdoba does well in executive elections and poorly in legislative elections.
For the force to come second and stay with a senator (today he has none) would be a good choice.
Versions indicate that the candidate of the space would be the deputy
Alejandra Vigo.
Is
the
Schiaretti's wife.
Governor Juan Schiaretti, last week at the inauguration of the school year in Córdoba.
By FDT it is
vox populi
that the candidate is
Carlos Caserio
, who is the mandate expires in December.
There is speculation that there could be an alchemy between the Schiaretti force and the FdT.
But in the national ruling party they practically rule it out:
"There is very little to distribute and it will be difficult to agree
.
"
Thus, instead of approaching the chimera of two thirds,
Cristina faces the risk of commanding a bloc with fewer members.
You have to see how many less.
In the worst scenario that was analyzed in that meeting last week, with a defeat in Corrientes and Chubut and without being able to elect senators for Córdoba and Santa Fe, he could be left with a block of less than 37 senators.
Beyond the symbolic, the Senate is key to the ruling party: it is the Chamber, for example, that
approved all the DNUs
of Alberto Fernández.
Look also
Intimation in Deputies, the stranger came from Alberto Fernández and another return from Lole Reutemann
The president of the Council of the Magistracy said that Cristina Kirchner "suffered political persecution"
