The second wave of the poll conducted by Harris Interactive for Commstrat, and published this Monday by
, confirms Emmanuel Macron's victory in 2022 in the event of a second round against the president of the RN, Marine Le Pen.
The score between the two candidates would still be very tight, with 53% of the voting intentions for the first, and 47% for the second (the first wave of the survey, carried out at the end of January, credited the outgoing head of state 52% of voting intentions, against 48% for his opponent).
Above all, the survey indicates that a majority of voters would refuse to "block" the RN by referring to Emmanuel Macron.
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It is on the side of La France insoumise that the figures are most telling.
If a Macron-Le Pen duel were to happen again in 2022, 52% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters would refuse to make a choice.
In an unprecedented way, the other 48% would be divided equally between the two candidates.
The survey thus underlines that in 2017, only a quarter of the Mélenchonists had chosen to abstain.
A very volatile electorate
According to the same survey, 28% of the voters of the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, would opt for Emmanuel Macron, against 21% for Marine Le Pen.
In the case of a candidacy of the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, half of his electorate would not position themselves in the second round, 41% of his voters would vote for Emmanuel Macron and 9% for Marine Le Pen.
The only electorate to go mainly to the outgoing head of state (51%) would be that of the ecologist Yannick Jadot.
They would however be 5% of his supporters to vote for the RN.
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This poll also shows that the RN consolidates its electoral base: 84% of those who voted for Marine Le Pen in 2017 would confirm their vote in 2022. They would even be 90% in the event of the candidacy of the president of the Island region. de-France, Valérie Pécresse, in place of Xavier Bertrand.
Sunday, on France 3, the leader of the Insoumis, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, refused to give an instruction to vote in the event of a second Macron-Le Pen round.
The majority was indignant, last week, of the front page of
relaying the testimonies of left-wing voters, opposed to voting for Emmanuel Macron in these circumstances.