Eduardo Paladini
03/07/2021 23:56
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 03/07/2021 23:56
In November, a consulting firm that conducts district-by-district surveys decided to include
Sergio Massa
in its studies
.
He had already been measuring the image of other national leaders such as Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
The debut of the incumbent of the Lower House was rather weak.
But they continued to evaluate it every month and by February there was finally an improvement in 17 of the 24 provinces, including the five largest.
In the environment of the deputy they find
only one explanation for the rebound
: the project to relieve the pressure of the Income tax, which has it as the main driver.
The original initiative, advanced by Clarín at the beginning of last month, foresees that only salaried employees
who earn more than 150,000 pesos will pay taxes
.
Thus, 1,267,000 people who now suffer the discounts would be exempted from the tax and another 100,000 who charge up to $ 173,000 would pay less.
"About
10% of the workers would be taxed again
, who were the ones who originally paid. Later, the scope was expanded and distorted," they explain in the ruling party.
Those affected by Earnings, without changes, would be just over 700 thousand, when in 2020 they were reached 2.2 million.
According to official sources told this newspaper, and after requests from different sectors and unions, although the law begins to take effect in April,
the funds withheld from more between January and March would be returned
.
In other words, there would be retroactivity and an even greater benefit for the pockets of more than a million taxpayers.
The logic of the measure is
economic / social
,
electoral
and
political
.
The
economic / social
is obvious.
The stoppage due to the coronavirus
deepened a recession
that had already been coming for several years, with just a relief in 2017. Since 2018, wages have been losing against inflation and the middle class was particularly affected by the quarantine.
Since he took
office, he focused his responses on the most vulnerable
.
From the start, it launched the food card in its plan against hunger and with the Covid, the most celebrated measure was the three emergency subsidies (IFE) of 10,000 pesos for the poor and the unemployed.
This division was applied even among retirees
, who also saw their purchasing power affected if they charged a little above the minimum.
With the improvement in Earnings, a signal to the middle class would finally arrive.
The
electoral
impact
that you are looking for is also obvious.
The
main concern
among the campaign strategists of the Frente de Todos today is what is known as the
"disenchanted
.
"
They are the softer voters of the ruling party, who supported the Fernándezes in 2019, but for months they have been critical of the President.
Basically for two reasons: his mimicry with Cristina and the economy.
Sergio Massa with union leaders, at the beginning of March.
They asked him for more relief with Earnings.
Some consulting firms put numbers to this phenomenon.
At the end of January, a study by the
Trespuntozero
and
Grupo de Opinion Pública
firms
that Clarín advanced, warned how all the indicators linked to the Government (from the image of the President and vice versa to economic expectations) had
worse numbers within the respondents of middle class
.
Another more recent work, in this case by
Synopsis
and also anticipated by this newspaper, spoke of
20% of disenchanted voters
who would no longer elect the ruling party this year and another 19% that are analyzing to review their decision due to the VIP Vaccination scandal .
The latter, it is speculated, would be easier to recover if immunization becomes widespread and transparent in the coming months.
The others will be more complicated, especially if the expected improvement in the economy is not clearly felt in the pockets.
That's where Profit comes into play again.
Finally, the project that will begin to be debated this Tuesday and -in particular- its dissemination also merits a
political
reading
.
In internal key.
Why did the Fernándezes let Massa be the spokesperson for one of the best economic initiatives of the year?
"Sergio defended everything that was thrown at him for the vulnerable sectors, the tax on the rich ... Initiatives more linked to pure Kirchnerism. That is why
Profits left it to him
. As a recognition. It is an issue that he had been promoting, does years, and in January in Chapadmalal, in a meeting with Alberto and Guzmán, the President told him 'go ahead' ", they reconstruct near the head of Deputies.
And they continue: "Within the Front, Sergio
represents the most moderate sectors
. And that coexistence is also respected. When he questions something about Venezuela or rules out that there is an amnesty for those convicted of corruption, it can be crossed by an ultra K spokesperson, such as D'Elía, but Máximo is not going to come out, for example, to discredit him ".
With the new outpost of Kirchnerism against Justice, that harmony will be put to the test again.
The same day he gave the speech for the opening of sessions,
Alberto Fernández told Massa that they would meet this Sunday to talk.
Minutes before, he had complained about the lack of approval in the Deputies of two sensitive projects for the vice president: judicial reform and, above all, the changes to elect the Attorney General of the Nation.
Until now, Massa has suggested delaying both initiatives.
He argued that he could not pool the votes to ensure that they become law.
Will the presidential duo continue to settle for that explanation?
The meeting that Fernández raised with Massa ran for Monday or Tuesday.
Decisive hours are coming.
And not just for Profits.