The French economy is at the end of the tunnel.
Asked about Franceinfo, the day after the publication of forecasts by the Banque de France, the governor of the institution affirmed that "
the recession is behind us
".
Over the next few months, French activity will gradually return to its pre-crisis level, until reaching it a priori in spring or summer 2022. “
It is a demanding stage
”, conceded François Villeroy de Galhau, while the tricolor economy still tops out at 95% of normal.
To read also: Jean-Pierre Robin: "Work and savings are the two breasts of economic growth"
The rest will depend on "
the confidence of the players
", but the institution forecasts, for 2021, a "
growth at least equal to 5%
", or "
one of the strongest in Europe
".
It will then be the “
strongest rebound in the French economy for 50 years
” and the oil shock of 1973. “
Historic
”
growth
, which will follow an equally exceptional fall in 2020.
Several indicators allow us to be optimistic for the future, underlined the governor.
First, investment and employment have resisted "
rather better than one might have feared
": the latest forecasts from INSEE in this area are indeed less pessimistic than expected.
In addition, the sharp increase in consumption in the third quarter, at the time of deconfinement, showed that households were ready to spend their savings, as soon as the health restrictions were lifted.
Household savings are also a central point of the recovery: reaching “
110 billion euros
” last month, this jackpot was made at the heart of the crisis.
"
The French were forced to accumulate savings
" when the stores were closed, noted François Villeroy de Galhau: this sum "
will increase further in 2021
", but households should spend it, from the moment when the restrictions will be fewer, he said.
On condition, however, that there are "
no other reasons for concern which transform this health savings into precautionary savings
": it will therefore be necessary to avoid any new taxation, monitor the employment front and maintain a “
Strong social safety net
,” suggested the governor.
"
The debt must be repaid sooner or later, it is a question of confidence
"
For François Villeroy de Galhau, the debate on the cancellation of the State debt held by the ECB is not the right one: there is "
no
European
consensus
" on this subject, it would "
bring nothing to the French
”and this action would risk weakening the confidence of the markets as in the currency.
"
The debt must be repaid sooner or later, it is a question of confidence
", he insisted.
The question then arises of the means to repay this debt.
For the governor, it will take "
time
" first, by spreading the repayment over ten years.
Controlling public spending and strong growth will also help ease this burden.
It may not be necessary to “
work more
”, for example by pushing back the retirement age: “
the transformation of our economy must make it possible to make it more digital, more ecological and more qualified.
The key is the battle for skills,
”insisted François Villeroy de Galhau, for whom we should not work more, but better, by being more productive.
For now, the governor is optimistic.
Companies, for their part, have certainly contracted new debts to cope with the crisis but their bank deposits have also increased: "
most will be in a position
" to repay their loan guaranteed by the State (PGE), and the others will be able to call on participatory loans and other mechanisms providing quasi-equity to bail out.
The majority of households were able to build up savings, and the number of over-indebtedness cases remained lower, at the start of 2021, than at its level at the start of 2020: there has been no catching-up phenomenon so far.
So many reassuring elements for the future.
The governor also returned to the case of bitcoin, which continues its insane rise.
"
It is not a currency, it is a very speculative asset [...] a very risky, speculative investment and reserved for very informed investors
", he commented.
"
Trees never rise to the sky,
" noted François Villeroy de Galhau, protesting against the idea that an asset could see its value continue to rise without stopping.
"
It does not exist
", he decided.