03/09/2021 8:54 AM
Clarín.com
World
Updated 03/09/2021 8:54 AM
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
sharply
revised
up
its estimate of world growth in 2021 to 5.6% instead of 4.2% previously, as a result of the combined effects of the mega-plan of recovery in the United States and vaccination against covid-19, according to its latest economic outlook published this Tuesday.
"In recent months, activity
has picked up in many sectors
and has adapted to the restrictions derived from the pandemic. Finally, the administration of vaccines is picking up pace, although it continues to be uneven, and it is likely that the fiscal stimulus of governments -in especially in the United States - give an important boost to the economy, "explains the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in a statement.
On its own,
US
President Joe Biden's
$ 1.9 trillion
plan
to revive the world's largest economy contributes one percentage point to this 1.4-point revision of global growth, explains Laurence Boone, chief economist of this organization of 37 developed countries.
Thanks to this
massive injection of liquidity
, the United States, which accounts for a fifth of all deaths from the pandemic, should see its GDP growth rate double compared to what was forecast in December, with 6.5%.
This will not pose a significant inflationary risk, according to Boone.
"If we look at the situation of the labor market and the skills that are not used, there is a lot of room in the economy before demand recovers fully," he estimated.
Instead, delays in vaccination could jeopardize the recovery, particularly in Europe.
"You have to vaccinate faster"
"Speed is crucial," OECD Secretary General Angel Gurría was quoted as saying in the statement.
"Vaccines must be delivered faster and globally. This will require better coordination and cooperation than seen to date, but humanity cannot afford to suspend this trial," he added.
Long lines in Rome to get vaccinated.
Photo: Bloomberg
Indeed, the increase in growth is more modest for the euro zone, where the vaccination program is slower: GDP is expected to grow 3.9% this year, while in the United Kingdom, where schools reopened the Monday, a growth of 5.1% is expected.
For France, the OECD expects a rebound of 5.9%, practically unchanged compared to its last forecast, for Spain 5.7%, Italy 4.1% and Germany 3%.
"If we fail to vaccinate a sufficient number of people quickly enough to be
able to lift the restrictions
, the recovery will be slower and we will undermine the benefits of the fiscal stimulus," said Boone, who was an economic advisor to former French President Francois Hollande.
China and India
For its part, China, the engine of world growth, whose exports shot up 60% in one year in January-February, should register
a growth of 7.8%.
But it is in India where the rebound
is most spectacular
: after plummeting 7.4% in 2020, GDP should grow
12.6% this year.
However, there are risks to growth: too slow a vaccination rate or "the emergence of
new variants
resistant to existing vaccines."
"The faster countries vaccinate, the sooner they can reopen their economies ... Our main message is therefore to accelerate the pace of vaccination to reopen the economy," Boone said.
More than
304.8 million doses of
coronavirus
vaccines
have been administered
worldwide, a figure that hides
wide disparities
: Israel has vaccinated almost 60% of its population, the United States almost 20%, France a around 5% and Brazil at 3%, according to OECD calculations.
v 1.5
Vaccination in the world
Total doses of vaccines administered per 100 people
Tap to explore the data
Source:
OWID
Infographic:
Clarín
AFP
