The polls show a clear trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg.
Most recently, the gap between the Greens and the CDU has increased.
Surveys on the
state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
suggest a continuation of the previous coalition.
Winfried Kretschmann does not automatically remain
Prime Minister
.
Other
coalitions
in the
state parliament
are possible but far less likely.
Update from March 5th, 6:05 pm:
According to a new survey by the ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Greens around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann can gain another percentage point compared to February a week before the state elections.
You come to 35 percent.
The CDU around Susanne Eisenmann, on the other hand, loses 4 percentage points and only lands at 24 percent.
It is followed by the AfD with 11 percent like last time.
The SPD and FDP each get 10 percent of the vote, with the FDP adding one percentage point.
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
ZDF political barometer |
05.03.2021 |
35 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
3rd |
7th |
INSA / image |
02/13/2021 |
31 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
4th |
5 |
Research group elections |
5.2.2021 |
34 |
28 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
3rd |
5 |
Infratest dimap |
4.02.2021 |
34 |
27 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
3rd |
6th |
The current polls for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021: Greens are ahead
Update from February 24th, 1.30 p.m.:
On March 14th, a new state parliament will be elected in Baden-Württemberg.
Surveys provide forecasts for the possible outcome on election Sunday beforehand.
The Insa poll of February 13th currently sees the Greens ahead with 31 percent, followed by the CDU (28 percent), SPD and AfD with 11 percent each, closely followed by the FDP (10 percent).
Other survey institutes are currently also showing this tendency.
The research group Wahlen and Infratest dimap sees the Greens at 34 percent - and thus estimate the gap between the Greens and the CDU greater than the current Insa survey.
The polls show a close race between the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg and the alternative for Germany.
The polls predict that the left will fail to meet the five percent rule.
First report from January 29, 9:40 a.m .:
Stuttgart - The state government of
Baden-Württemberg
has been unique in Germany since 2011.
Winfried Kretschmann
is the only green man
in a federal state to be the prime minister.
As the father of the country, he has excellent popularity ratings.
According to the
forecasts
for the state election in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021,
an election victory for the Greens is
still not certain.
Who is ahead between the Greens and the CDU fluctuates from survey to survey.
On March 14th there should also be a close race between
AfD *
and
SPD *
.
According to the
polls
for the state election in 2021,
both parties can become
the third strongest force in the state parliament.
Compared to the 2016 election, the AfD has so far been predicted to have greater losses than the SPD.
Entry into the state parliament appears to
be relatively safe
for the
FDP
and,
in turn, to be very insecure
for the party
Die Linke
.
Surveys on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA / image |
01/13/2021 |
30th |
30th |
12th |
12th |
8th |
4th |
4th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
December 17, 2020 |
35 |
30th |
11 |
10 |
7th |
3rd |
4th |
INSA / image |
11/19/2020 |
29 |
31 |
12th |
11 |
7th |
5 |
5 |
Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung |
October 15, 2020 |
34 |
29 |
11 |
11 |
6th |
4th |
5 |
INSA / image |
09/10/2020 |
28 |
31 |
12th |
12th |
7th |
7th |
5 |
State election |
03/13/2016 |
30.3 |
27.0 |
15.1 |
12.7 |
8.3 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
Forecasts point to green-black in Baden-Württemberg again
The situation is both comfortable and complicated for the two ruling parties.
A continuation of the government work would
definitely be possible
for
Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *
and
CDU *
.
Together, the two parties are heading for
around 60 percent of the vote
- perhaps even significantly more.
Both sides emphasize that there is no automatism for a continuation of the coalition.
But
according to the surveys from Baden-Württemberg
, Winfried Kretschmann and the CDU top candidate
Susanne Eisenmann
are running out of other options.
Possible coalitions according to the polls for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
For Kretschmann,
green-red-red
would come into
question.
Two things speak against the alliance with the SPD and Die Linke *.
First, the Left Party is a shaky candidate for entry into the state parliament.
The polls before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg showed them to be below the
5 percent threshold
.
Second, Kretschmann has always been considered the green of the more conservative party wing.
He would hardly be the man for a state government of this kind. In the year before the state elections, the FDP * was open to a coalition with the Greens as well.
The liberals could just as easily orient themselves in the other direction.
The CDU can
hope
for
black-red-yellow
.
For this, Susanne Eisenmann needs an SPD that
wants to
get involved in the role of
the Union's
junior partner
.
This is also a very uncertain calculation, because the Social Democrats are looking to cooperation with the Greens.
Neither the CDU nor any of the other parties are seeking a coalition with the AfD.
If you don't yet know which parties your own wishes fit in, you can again ask Wahl-O-Mat about the state elections in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021.
As long as the forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 do not show a clear trend reversal, everything points to a continuation of
green-black
. The main question that remains open is who will get the most votes and who will ultimately be allowed to nominate the Prime Minister.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network