OECD forecast: America is injecting itself forward

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Queuing

for the vaccination:

Motorists wait in line in front of the mobile vaccination tents in the USA, Houston, for their vaccination

Photo: Mark Mulligan / dpa

America is gaining momentum - Europe is stuck in the slow lane.

That is the clear picture that the new OECD forecast for the world economy paints.

While the US economy could reach the pre-Corona level during the course of this summer, the Europeans will not be ready until the end of next year.

The US economy should have grown by a further 7 percent by then.

more on the subject

OECD forecast: US economy turns on the turbo

The decisive difference, however, is not that the Americans have

now countered and trumped

the "oomph" of Federal Finance Minister

Olaf Scholz

(62) again with their Biden XXL super oomph.

"The best economic policy at the moment is vaccination," emphasized

Laurence Boone

(51), the OECD chief economist, when presenting her updated forecasts.

The prospects for growth have improved almost everywhere - but not in the core states of the euro zone.

And that is mainly due to the fact that opening up the economy in this country can only be thought of very carefully.

"Need for speed" is the title of the OECD for its new growth forecast.

And for once, the economists of the Paris think tank of the industrialized countries do not primarily mean the orientation of fiscal and monetary policy.

Biden's current $ 1.9 trillion package, which more than doubles the previous fiscal stimulus in the US and pushes it to over 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), can only work in the end if the pandemic is defeated with a successful vaccination campaign .

Growth can only be boosted if the money can actually be spent - instead of piling up on savings accounts.

Germany can benefit from the American boost

The Europeans - and especially the Germans - can definitely benefit from the foreseeable American boost.

The OECD estimates that the rapid recovery, which is particularly evident in the USA (2021 GDP: plus 6.5 percent), will increase global economic growth by one percentage point overall.

Good news for German exporters, who have also stabilized the situation in this country over the past few months.

Their exports have been increasing steadily since the corona-related crash last spring (latest figure for January: + 1.4 percent on the previous month).

The domestic lockdown continues to slow down massively.

The weak demand is also reflected in the fact that German imports collapsed in January (minus 4.7 percent on the previous month).

The OECD has not made a detailed comparison of vaccination strategies and results.

According to their data, however, Americans and EU-Europeans have pre-ordered about the same amount - a good two doses of vaccine per inhabitant.

The crucial difference is that the USA has already reached a much higher vaccination rate: According to data from the University of Oxford, they have already vaccinated around 90 million "shots", with an additional two million every day.

So far, this means over 27 shots per 100 inhabitants.

The European Union has only inoculated less than half (approx. 41 million doses), the large EU countries have fewer than ten inoculated doses per 100 inhabitants.

Slow vaccination speed = slow recovery

The OECD's warning is therefore urgent: the slow pace of vaccination is immediately translated into a continued slow economic recovery.

It wouldn't be of much use to unpack another fiscal "bazooka" now.

At the moment, Europe's macro-politicians must above all ensure that there are no undesirable side effects of the US boom: The new growth optimism and initial fears of inflation have led to a rise in interest rates in America that has spilled over to Europe.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has promised to continue to ensure favorable financing conditions.

However, contradicting signals from Frankfurt am Main have recently caused unrest.

At their meeting on Thursday, the central bankers will have to provide more clarity.

The most important job at the moment is that of European health politicians: Vaccination first!