Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2021-03-11 07:00
Last update date: 2021-03-11 07:00
The National People's Congress will soon review and pass the "Decision of the National People's Congress on Improving the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region's Electoral System (Draft)", and the political landscape of Hong Kong will be completely rewritten.
In the past year, the implementation and implementation of the "Hong Kong National Security Law" to the revision of the electoral system have all been directed at the chaos of the past few years in Hong Kong.
In the "post-electoral reform" era, how should Hong Kong's political situation continue?
Is there room for the democrats to survive?
In an interview with "Hong Kong 01", Zhu Zhaolin, the convener of the Hong Kong School of Political and Governance, mentioned that the events in Hong Kong in the past few years have necessitated the central government to reform the system.
He believes that Hong Kong's political landscape needs another "big reshuffle" to reduce the opposition to only about 10 or 20% of the system before the political situation can get back on track.
In the long run, Zhu believes that the Basic Law needs to be comprehensively reviewed and revised to "refine" some of the provisions and clarify who is responsible for proposing amendments in order to ensure long-term stability in Hong Kong and deal with problems in a timely manner.
The central government’s previous work on Hong Kong and Hong Kong has not yet fully paid off
The Hong Kong School of Political Science and Governance is a local political talent training organization. Zhu Zhaolin himself is a member of the National Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies. He has studied policy research and has many exchanges with public officials and government officials. He is one of the government's private think tanks.
He believes that in the past, the central government's policy on Hong Kong had two incomplete results: One is the lack of integration between China and Hong Kong.
For example, Zhu Zhaolin pointed out that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan has been proposed for a long time, but based on his observations, Hong Kong people generally have insufficient understanding of the Mainland, and there is still much room for improvement in education on national conditions. "Everyone always thinks that there is something (between China and Hong Kong). One line has not yet merged." There is a greater sense of political and cultural alienation, ranging from political ideology to as small as the language of formula documents. Examples are everywhere.
Zhu Zhaolin said that while Hong Kong’s national conditions education must be done more, it is also very important for Hong Kong people to “take one step ahead” to experience and understand the country’s development firsthand and to think about the role of Hong Kong.
He believes that this will continue to improve as the central government successively introduces more preferential Hong Kong policies.
The second is the most important part in politics. Zhu Zhaolin pointed out that the central government used to attach more importance to uniting the patriotic camp. In short, it means "always uniting some people who have been united in the war." It needs to do more to work against the opposition camp.
However, he believes that the central government has never underestimated the Hong Kong issue, and this "major operation" of the electoral system is a step forward.
Zhu Zhaolin criticized that Hong Kong’s opposition camp "never paid attention to the goodwill that the central government has shown." For example, the 2015 political reform plan, even if it is not the most perfect, is always a universal suffrage plan: "I will treat this as the 1.0 plan, but why did it start? Is 10.0? How can any system be perfect from the beginning? Look at the United States, the electoral vote system is not the same as loopholes." He also pointed out that in the past, the opposition "watermelon was on the big side", and the mainstream was during the legislative turmoil. The atmosphere tends to be brave and radical. It follows the direction of the wind, threatening the territorial integrity of the country and the central authority. "People are like this. They will always test the bottom line. If no one tells where the red line is, they will keep creating problems. The National Security Law is you. Seek benevolence and gain benevolence."
See the current four major sectors of the Chief Executive Election Committee▼▼▼
Pointing that the political circles must shuffle into a ratio of 82 to 9: the pains are inevitable in the process of holding the righteousness
According to the current circulated version, there are opinions that after the central government decided to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system, the legislative council’s democratically elected elements have been reduced, the district councils that are the most representative of public opinion in the electoral committee have also been cut off, and the democratic process has returned to the 80s or 90s. The age is a kind of regression.
Zhu Zhaolin pointed out that the entire political system of Hong Kong is still in the process of being "executive," and the pain is inevitable.
He pointed out that the political circle will usher in a "reshuffle", and the democrats will not disappear from now on, but certainly their influence in the political circle will be greatly reduced. He believes that within the overall system (including district councils, legislative councils, and electoral committees), they are patriotic. The ratio between the camp and the opposition has changed to at least 82, or even 9.1, replaced by the vast majority of "country-recognized and trustworthy faces." The remaining opposition will be mainly moderates. He has never said about subverting the country, confirming that he loves the country and Hong Kong, and talks about continuing the democratic process after the social system is stabilized.
Tian Feilong, director of the National Hong Kong and Macao Research Association and associate professor of the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics School of Law, wrote earlier that what the central government is determined to create is not rubber stamps or "loyal waste," but virtuous patriots.
Zhu Zhaolin believes that the central authorities are very clear that "loyalists will have their strength to the side." He believes that there will be healthy competition between the establishment after the political system changes.
Of course, he believes that the Hong Kong government has a lot of room for improvement in its governance capabilities. For example, the implementation of the system is not enough, and the government cannot fully understand the needs of the public: "Every time the government does something, it opens an office. , The departments are independent; the policy-makers and those who implement the policies are not coordinated. As a result, even the ban on food in restaurants is changed day and night, and they don’t understand the actual needs of the citizens. For example, in the 2019 (District Council) elections, many people said they would stop , But what did the decision-makers think at the time? Why didn't they do it in the end?"
Zhu Zhaolin believes that the Basic Law must also be revised in response to changes in the times, and the general direction is to "refine" the provisions.
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Advocate detailed and standardized revision procedures for the provisions of the Basic Law
In the long run, Zhu Zhaolin believes that the central government needs to consider improving the Basic Law.
He pointed out that the Basic Law was drafted more than 30 years ago, and the drafters at that time did not necessarily think of the many implementation issues after the reunification.
"Back then, Deng Xiaoping said that the "Basic Law" should be written in the form of "should be rough rather than fine", leaving a lot of flexibility for the SAR. Even Article 23 was written in a few sentences. However, people at that time did not necessarily expect that Hong Kong society would be so complicated and free. Too much degree may not necessarily respond to the new situation." He believes that the Basic Law is also time to update, but he did not specify what provisions need to be changed. He just felt that in principle, the provisions should be "refined" and written more specifically.
Zhu Zhaolin also pointed out that, in fact, the revision of the Basic Law should also be standardized, clarifying how the procedures should be revised if it is to be revised in the future: "Is it the NPC to revise it spontaneously, or does the SAR government propose it to the central government when it finds it necessary? Clarify the source of power in this regard. You don’t have to wait until the central government finds that the problem can’t be tolerated each time.”
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