Will there be elections in Madrid? The keys to the enormous legal mess over motions

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in the center, with part of her advisers, before announcing her decision to dissolve the Madrid Assembly this Wednesday.ALBERTO ORTEGA / Europa Press

Spanish politics has become an ultra-fast chess game on March 10 after the announcement of the motion of no confidence to unseat the president of Murcia, Fernando López Miras, and the decision of the president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to dissolve the Regional Assembly and call early elections, suspended after presenting PSOE and Más Madrid two motions of censure.

This leaves a picture full of questions.

In this piece we answer - or try to answer - the most pressing questions of this informative Dragon Khan.

Will there be elections in the Community of Madrid on May 4?

Impossible to know at this time.

After knowing the motion of censure of PSOE and Citizens in Murcia, Díaz Ayuso took advantage of the ordinary meeting of the Governing Council on Wednesdays and at noon signed the decree of dissolution of the Assembly of Madrid and the calling of elections for the 4 of May.

This maneuver, under normal conditions, would clear up the dash.

But the current conditions are not normal: to avoid an electoral call that catches them on the wrong foot, disunited and without a clear candidate, Más Madrid - a party led by Íñigo Errejón - and Ángel Gabilondo's PSOE, surprisingly registered motions of censorship against Díaz Ayuso.

Those initiatives arrived around one in the afternoon, that is, after Díaz Ayuso's announcement.

The Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid prevents dissolving the Assembly when there is a motion of censure “in process”.

The left-wing parties took advantage of a nook and cranny of the law not explored until now: the fact that the decree of dissolution of the Assembly does not come into force until its publication in the

Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid

, which at the time of registering motions had not occurred.

PSOE and Más Madrid, with these urgent motions,

de facto

repeal

the power that the laws grant to the president of the community to dissolve the Assembly in advance, a movement of undoubted political repercussions and that will foreseeably end in the courts.

In the early afternoon, the Table of the regional Assembly, chaired by Citizens and in which this party and the PSOE add four of the seven members - the rest correspond to the PP (2) and Vox (1) - admitted the motions censorship.

The parliamentary body acted in this way as the dissolution of the Chamber was not yet in force, as the decree had not been published in the official gazette.

The admission of the motions leaves, at least for the moment, the electoral call of Ayuso without effect.

What legal path does this conflict have?

Legal sources consider that the decision of the Board of the Madrid Assembly to admit the motions of no confidence does not close the way to the elections on May 4.

These sources believe that in an eventual appeal to the Constitutional Court on the admission by the Table of the motions, Ayuso has possibilities to assert his position, and refer to article 21.2 of the Madrid Statute of Autonomy.

This precept establishes that the president of the Community "may not agree" to dissolve the Assembly "when a motion of censure is in process."

The jurists consulted emphasize this verb: "agree".

These sources maintain that this verb refers to the moment the decree was signed, not its publication in the official gazette.

Therefore, they affirm, if Ayuso signed - agreed - the dissolution before the motions were registered, the act would be valid, which could legally tilt the debate in his favor.

Has such a situation ever occurred?

No. Legal sources consulted indicate that both the wording and the spirit of the regulation is to give the presidents of the communities the power to dissolve the legislative assemblies of their territories, and they consider that this power is taken away by introducing a motion of censure Before the publication of the dissolution decree in the official gazette, it could enter the field of legal fraud.

Is there a general strategy of PSOE and Citizens behind the motion of Murcia?

Apparently not.

The two parties presented their motion of censure against the López Miras government in isolation, with no intention of extending it to other territories in which PP and Cs govern in coalition - Castilla y León, Andalusia and, until now, Madrid.

In the case of Murcia, both parties allege, among other reasons, the situation created by the irregular distribution of vaccines against the coronavirus, which cost the previous regional Health Minister the position.

Until now, the vice-president of Madrid, Ignacio Aguado, of Ciudadanos, has openly accused Díaz Ayuso of "lying" by accusing him of preparing a motion of censure with the Socialists to unseat her.

The PSOE has presented a motion of censure in Castilla y León. Does it have any signs of prospering?

At this time, no, although the question of the demolition of the popular Alfonso Fernández Mañueco is open.

The PSOE has 35 of the 81 seats in the regional courts and also has the support of two parliamentarians from Podemos.

It would need four of the 13 Citizens' attorneys, led by the current regional vice president, Francisco Igea.

In recent days there have been rumors of negotiations between the PSOE and the party of Inés Arrimadas - denied by the latter - for the motion.

What happens in Andalusia?

In the main territory, by population and extension, governed by PP and Ciudadanos, both parties keep the forms and stage their cohesion.

The popular Juanma Moreno and the liberal Juan Marín have appeared this afternoon to confirm the stability of their Executive.