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Inflation: filling the freezer and the pantry is now a better investment than the dollar and the fixed term

2021-03-12T10:11:39.705Z


In recent months, traditional 'shelters' have failed to preserve purchasing power. It was more convenient to make purchases in advance to anticipate price increases. What to expect for the next few months.


Martin Grosz

03/12/2021 6:01 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Services

Updated 03/12/2021 6:01 AM

How to invest a few extra dollars to make a small profit or at least to try to maintain your purchasing power?

Most Argentines, faced with this dilemma, automatically think of two options: buy dollars or make a common fixed term.

But in recent times that has

not been effective

.

Due to the reappearance of inflation, with the Consumer Price Index advancing up to

4% each month

, and also due to the official policy of keeping

the dollar

and interest rates

"ironed"

, neither of those two classic "safe havens" they have lately managed to keep savings safe from depreciation.

As an investment, in these times, the one that was much more profitable was a less traditional one, although well known by Argentines: the "

stockeo

".

Fill the freezer, fill the cupboards, fill the naphtha tank ... Basically, advance the purchase of food, drinks, cleaning and toilet products and other common consumer goods that are possible to store for a certain time, in order to

"freeze "their prices

.

That is, acquire them

before they become

even more

expensive

.


By "stocking up", they advise targeting the safer and more commonly consumed non-perishable products.

Photo Germán García Adrasti

Dollar and fixed term, exceeded by inflation

INDEC reported this Thursday that headline inflation was

3.6%

in February.

In January it had given

4%

and in December, another

4%

.

In total, in just

three months

, prices accumulated a

12%

jump in the country

.

What profitability was it possible to obtain in the same quarter - December to February - with the most popular investments?

Saving dollar

.

Who at the beginning of December bought his quota of US $ 200 of the North American currency by home banking paid $ 143.50 per dollar, at the "solidarity" exchange.

If three months later he tried to sell what he acquired - in the informal market - he received $ 141 per dollar.

Result:

lost 2% in pesos

.

Blue dollar

.

In the "caves," in early December a buyer had to pay $ 153 to the dollar.

The saver who invested at that time and at the end of February needed to sell had to liquidate the "greens" at $ 141. Result: he

lost 8%

in three months.

Dollar MEP

.

Buying dollars on the stock market through a bond operation was not a protective investment either.

If in the first days of December there was a value of $ 144 per dollar to buy, at the end of February whoever sold in the same market had to do so at $ 142. Result: it

lost 1.4%

in three months.

The dollar, the "safe" investment of Argentines that in recent months lost against inflation.

Reuters photo

Traditional fixed term

.

Despite the rebound in prices, since the market expects 48% inflation for 2021, interest rates have remained practically frozen in recent months.

Currently it is possible to deposit at a nominal 37% per year.

This allows, in

30 days

, to obtain a yield of

3%

: charge $ 304 for every $ 10,000 deposited.

Result: from December to February, reinvesting each month the profit at these rates, a saver was able to

earn 9.4%

(against inflation, remember, of 12%).

The "returns" of stockearing

What happened, at the same time, to the price of "stockable" products in the supermarket?

In many cases they had

impressive increases

, especially in the meat sector, although there were also in oils, preserves, alcoholic beverages, infusions and more.

According to the survey of the Buenos Aires Department of Statistics and Censuses, for example, only in the last three months the kilo of

roast

went from $ 396.84 to $ 579.70 on average: it became

more expensive by 46.1%

.

That means that, at the beginning of December, with $ 3,000 you could buy

7.5 kilos

and put them in the freezer to start consuming them just three months later, with a virtual

"saving" of 31.5%

compared to the updated values.

Now, if those $ 3,000 had been put on the first day of December on a fixed term, in three months the amount obtained would have allowed them to buy

5.6 kilos

of roast, almost two kilos less.

And if the silver had been used to buy dollars, when selling them 90 days later the result would only reach 

5 kilos

.

Roast, one of the products that has become more expensive in recent times.

Photo Juano Tesone

According to

official Buenosaireans data in the same three months, the square increased by

34%

, the cuadril

30.6%

, buttock

28.2%

and beef

23.6%

.

The whole chicken appreciated

29%

.

With which, in all these cases "investing" in filling the freezer was good business.

But so was occupying the cupboards with a few mass consumer products whose prices soared.

In three months, for example, the bottle

of corn

oil

increased

24.5%

and that of sunflower

20.3%

.

A liter of beer rose in price by

18.5%

and a carton of wine by

11.2%

.

The kilo of

yerba

rose

16.7%

and ready tomato sauces,

15.5%

.

In three months, canned peaches (13.3%), mayonnaise (12.19%),

rice

(11%),

jam

(

11.2%

), herbal drinks (10.5%) and soft drinks (

9.7%

).

In beers, increases of 18% were revealed in just three months.

Photo Andrés D'Elía

It is something similar to what happened in the quarter with other basic products for personal and home care, such as creamy cleaners (12.1%),

waste bags

(

11.9%

), furniture polish (11.1%), pasta of teeth (10.46%), insecticides (10.2%) and others, always according to the average prices surveyed by the official statistical entity of the City of Buenos Aires.

Rushing to fill the tank of the vehicles could also have been a more profitable "investment" than the classics in the compared quarter?

Due to the series of increases, it seems so:

super

naphtha

, for example, rose

11.2%

in Capital;

and

premium diesel 18.6%

.

How the movie goes

"The cause of the phenomenon is that for some time now, this economic policy scheme has caused the interest rate in pesos and the nominal exchange rate to

run behind inflation

, more the former than the latter. For this reason, in the The last two months of 2020 and the first two of 2021, the market demanded many assets indexed by inflation. Stocking is the

home version

of that, "explained

Gabriel Caamaño Gómez

, an economist at the Ledesma Consultant.

Mariano Otálora

, director of the Argentine School of Personal Finance, agreed: "The official dollar is ironed and the parallel is calm. Interest rates are moving below general inflation. And there is also an inflationary inertia that is not yielding as the Government intended, and which is expected to remain firm. "

To this is added that, after a year of strong price controls for mass consumer products, the Government in recent months began to allow

greater increases

, especially for categories that are not considered essential.

Rice, among the products that it was convenient to "stock" in the face of price increases.

Photo Andrés D'Elía

"In current conditions, it is convenient for you to 

buy any product

instead of investing in a traditional fixed term,

unless they are the UVA

, which is adjusted for inflation and guarantees a positive real rate. And in the case of the dollar, it is possible that at As the elections approach, the blue will end up overheating, "he added.

When it comes to "stocking up", Otálora advised targeting non-perishable products that "will

surely be consumed

" in a short period of time, always comparing prices beforehand and taking advantage of the best possible promotions, discounts and offers.

Advancing payments for services, he clarified, is usually not convenient.

MG

Look also

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Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-03-12

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