Married joins his destiny to Ayuso's

Pablo Casado's speech left this Thursday from the path of the center that he had undertaken in the motion of censure in which he broke with Vox last October.

The leader of the PP assumed, for the first time since he decided to embrace a strategy of moderation and centrism, the most confrontational story of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who represents the most radical and inclined PP towards Vox.

The dilemma is "socialism or freedom", proclaimed the Madrid president in office when she announced the electoral advance, some words that the leader of the extreme right in Madrid, Rocío Monasterio, replied in the same way.

Casado also made those same words his own, highlighting that his destiny is linked to that of the Madrid leader.

Ayuso thwarts his moderation strategy and forces him to reconsider his relationship with Vox.

All my support to @IdiazAyuso who has done everything possible to maintain the stability of the legislature while managing the pandemic.

I am sure that the PP will have the absolute majority of Madrilenians to continue creating jobs and opportunities.

Socialism or freedom.

pic.twitter.com/0wRlPxzR6K

- Pablo Casado Blanco (@pablocasado_) March 11, 2021

Casado agreed with Ayuso to advance the elections as a reaction to the motion of censure that Ciudadanos presented by surprise in Murcia to seize power from the PP.

But the electoral scenario in Madrid has unforeseen derivatives on its strategy to try to reach La Moncloa, which disturb some popular barons.

"If Ayuso loses the Government, what does Casado sell later?" Asks a regional president, who sees risks in the operation.

"And, on the other hand, if Ayuso wins being able to count only on Vox as a partner, he puts Casado in trouble," reflects this popular baron.

The operation of the Madrid electoral advance has risks for Genova Street.

On the one hand, if Ayuso did not revalidate the Government - something that the PP does not contemplate - Casado would have suddenly lost two strongholds, Murcia and Madrid.

But on the other, if he wins, he will have to throw himself into the arms of Vox.

The break with Ciudadanos pushes the PP to agree with the extreme right to govern in Madrid, in the unlikely scenario that Ayuso will achieve an absolute majority.

And the question is how far this dependence of the PP on the extreme right will go.

Vox may demand to enter the Ayuso government or support it from outside, but it will set the pace for the popular ones much more than until now, when they could count on Citizens as an alternative partner.

At the moment, the Abascals' strategy is to offer themselves to the PP as a “reliable partner”, unlike Ciudadanos, whom they accuse of having perpetrated treason;

and demand in return, even if he still does not say it clearly, to replace the Arrimadas party as a partner in the government.

“We will be where the Madrilenians put us,” Monasterio responds when asked if he aspires to join a future cabinet chaired by Ayuso.

The unknown that also circulates in the PP is to what extent Ayuso will do what he thinks is convenient for his interests or will take into account those of Casado.

Married avoids talking about Vox

The leader of the PP avoided this Thursday answering the journalists' question about whether he is going to reconsider his relationship with Vox, now that he may have to need them soon in Madrid.

Casado did want to give express support to the Madrid president, whom he personally defended.

“Isabel Díaz Ayuso has our full support.

She has received all kinds of unfair criticism, from the moment the PP and I decided that she was a candidate.

The government has unfairly lashed out at her even on a personal level.

He is an effective, honest and principled person, ”said Casado.

And he added, assuming his speech: "She said it very clearly: [in Madrid] it will be chosen between socialism or freedom."

The dilemma contrasts with the intervention of the PP leader from the platform of Congress in Vox's motion of censure, when he defended that his party is not, unlike the extreme right, “neither fury nor noise”.

“We do not feed fractures, but we want to close them.

We want to unite the Spaniards again ”, proclaimed Casado in October.

The leader of the PP defended, on the other hand, that the elections in Madrid are going to be "the first stage of the unity of the center-right around the PP."

This will be the case, he said, because the electorate of the three brands - PP, Ciudadanos and Vox - will unite "at the base" around Ayuso's candidacy.

The possibility that the Madrid president achieves the confluence of the center-right and the right under the brand of the PP (if it destroys Cs and Vox) is also highlighted in some regional presidencies of the PP.

If so, Ayuso could become a threat to Casado's leadership.

"The one who will have fused the center-right will have been her," warns a regional baron.

Although the personal relationship between Ayuso and Casado is good, in their environments there has already been tension for her national projection, and Casado has not yet decided whether he will allow her to preside over the match in Madrid.

Suspicion of some barons

For now, some barons are suspicious of how Ayuso's campaign fits with Casado's strategy.

“The relationship with Vox is a bit contradictory.

From going to repudiate him with the motion of no confidence, now there is a coincidence of focus.

Monastery has put a tweet saying the same thing about socialism or freedom.

That squeaks.

The elections are always posed as a dilemma, and Vox has bought the dilemma from the PP ", analyze sources from a regional presidency.

The best scenario for Ayuso and Casado is that she managed to govern alone, even with the external support of Vox.

In the national leadership of the PP they defend that Ayuso will easily win the elections, although they are aware that it is highly unlikely that he will achieve an absolute majority.

“It is a transversal wave, which brings together the hoteliers, the self-employed.

She speaks as clearly as a normal staff;

the result is going to improve a lot by stinging both Cs and Vox ”, assure sources from the Casado leadership.

"Part of Ayuso's success is that La Moncloa's strategy of stoning Madrid has victimized her," these same sources point out, who argue that Vox will have no choice but to vote in favor of his inauguration.

"Will they ask to enter the Government?

But if it is going to be a difference of one to eight ”, they maintain in the leadership of the PP.

Arrimadas called the PP leader before the break

The president of Ciudadanos, Inés Arrimadas, tried to dismantle the argument of Isabel Díaz Ayuso on Thursday, who assured a day before that she had called early elections to prevent the party with which she governed from presenting a motion of censure with the Socialists.

Arrimadas said that he spoke with the leader of the PP, Pablo Casado, before Ayuso called early elections to explain the situation in Murcia, where his party broke the government coalition to support a motion of no confidence.

Arrimadas clarified to Casado, as he assures, that the situation in Murcia was not going to be repeated in Madrid or Andalusia or Castilla y León.

Casado complained on Thursday that the call came "three hours after the news of the motion hit the press."

Sources close to the Madrid president affirm for their part that neither Arrimadas nor Ignacio Aguado, his former vice president, called Ayuso to assure him that they would not support a motion in Madrid.

The Cs leader also spoke with the presidents of Andalusia and Castilla y León.

"They are clear that Citizens' break with the PP in Murcia is limited to a very specific situation of which we could no longer continue to be accomplices and that this has not affected their territories at all," he explained.

Citizens, Arrimadas announced, will vote against the PSOE's motion of censure against Alfonso Fernández Mañueco.

On Monday, the leader of Cs will travel to Valladolid to show her support for the regional president.