Marine Le Pen seems to be getting thicker.
In any case, this is what recent polls indicate.
Whether it is those who give it to the second round with scores much higher than in 2017, or on the appreciation that the French have on her personality as a candidate.
According to an Elabe survey for BFMTV published this Thursday, 48% of French people believe their victory is likely, or 7 points more than last September.
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“Obviously, this is not a poll of voting intentions, but it does say that it is gaining in credibility”, notes Bernard Sananès, president of Elabe, noting for example that it “is progressing on its ideas” (in credibility), but also that it “took the leadership of anger from Jean-Luc Mélenchon”.
Understand: it would catalyze the vote motivated by anger towards the current situation more than the Insubordinate.
A fictitious election photograph
Since January, several polls have given Marine Le Pen a much higher score than in 2017 in the event of a second round against the outgoing president (48% at Harris, 46% for Ipsos and 47% at Harris again, this week).
A fictitious, non-predictive electoral photograph, which may still evolve within a year.
But the interesting information relates to the behavior of voters in the first round, a large part of whom claims to want to abstain in the second.
This is sure to influence the political behavior of the majority (how to ensure these hesitant voices?) Or of the opposition (who will claim to be a better bulwark against Le Pen, than Macron in the second round).
Data for the moment incomplete
Another fundamental precaution: a poll, one year before an election, is based on incomplete data and can only be imperfect.
"We do not know the entire electoral offer, or what the campaign themes will be," warns Jean-Daniel Levy, deputy director at Harris Interactive.
"Marine Le Pen is high in the polls, because already in the campaign, and identified by public opinion", continues the pollster.
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This is not the case for candidates on the right, or for some on the left.
A year before the 2017 presidential election, the boss of the RN was also given around 28% of the vote (today 25%), and she ultimately only collected 21.3%.
Nothing is written.